WTF, Gallup Obama 47, Romney 46! This after Libya???

[Logical]

Obama down a point, Romney up a point.

Jesus, what is the deal?

[madaboutharry]

1. GRRRR....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. It's One Tracking Poll. Don't Freak Out. Look At The Average.

.

[liberallibral]

3. Rasmussen and Gallup have Romney ahead...

I know, it's crazy... but it's true...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. No. Gallup Has Obama Ahead.

And Obama is trading at 68% at intrade and 3-1 at the betting sites.

[Jennicut]

7. Romney is not ahead on Gallup, he is a point behind.

NBC/Wall St. Journal poll will be out tonight and per some tweets from Nbc news and even Chuckie Todd there is some positive movement for Obama on certain poll questions.

A tracking poll lead is nice but look at the swing state #'s first. Electoral college is most important. Another poll for VA today by Washington Post is Obama +8. Tracking polls are popular vote #'s and in that case, it has always been close.

VA poll: http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/post-poll-obama-up-8-points-over-romney-in-virginia/2012/09/18/ca691d9a-0193-11e2-9367-4e1bafb958db_story.html

Tweets on NBC/Wall St. Journal Poll: http://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. From Todd's Comments I Expect The Presiden't Lead To Be Between 5-7%

.

[Jennicut]

15. Me too.

At least 3% or more, which falls in line with all the other polls but Gallup and Rasmussen. The tracking polls are fun to watch but the daily bounces can drive some people nuts. The lead on Gallup was a convention bounce but the leads in the swing states are more damaging to Romney. Hard to find a way to win for him without VA, OH, and FL.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. He Was Up By Four In Their Last Poll. I Took Away He's Now Up Even More

.

[DonViejo]

4. How about providing a link to these results?

[former9thward]

26. I am not the OP but here is a link.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

[Rider3]

5. Polls

Although I'll never county my chicks before the eggs hatch, don't worry about the polls. It all depends where they are being conducted, not to mention that they are estimates/opinions that are not written in stone.

[alfredo]

54. You also have to take in account who is polled and methods used. Ras and Gallup tend

to the right, others don't.

I look at aggregates and trends. I also look at where the votes are. Obama has a very healthy lead in the race for 270.


I like Nate Silver's blog. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com
He is now showing the Senate race. If the election was held today, the Dems would hold the Senate.

If Romney really crashes and burns, that will either help us in Congress, or it will mean more Republican resources for the Congressional races. A Romney death spiral could depress Republican votes across the board.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. I Know The OP Is Not A Troll But This Thread Is Like Flypaper To Them.

Those fucking assclowns don't fool me.

[cali]

44. so we should only post polls we like?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

9. This shouldn't be surprising. Unrest and instability in the Middle East is blamed on Obama.

It's unfair. It's crazy! I don't understand it at all, but the American people are stupid. They are misinformed. They just are.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. It Is Surprising And Gallup Is 2% Lower Than The RCP Poll Average

.

[ProSense]

17. Pew: Americans React Negatively To Romney’s MidEast Response

Pew: Americans React Negatively To Romney’s MidEast Response
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021362031

There is absolutely no reason for Romney's numbers to be climbing. Usually polls react to good and bad news, here Romney is being roundly criticized by everyone, including Republicans, and his numbers are going up?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

34. Why can't both be tha case: while Americans

react negatively to Romney, they may still be leery about what's going on in the Middle East, thus the decline in Obama's number. It doesn't surprise me at all. I have little faith in the intelligence of the American electorate. We Democrats underestimate the voting electorate at our peril.

[ProSense]

36. See, this is the problem

"I have little faith in the intelligence of the American electorate. We Democrats underestimate the voting electorate at our peril."

Republicans wan't us to think the majority of voting Americans are stupid when in fact, the only time Republicans win is if they cheat. Americans were smart enough to reject them in 2006 and in 2008. The 2010 was more a result of lack of enthusiasm on the part of Democrats.

What 2006 and 2008 proved is that hard fought campaigns to get the truth and the vote out can overcome Republican distortions and election tampering.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

65. I understand what you're saying and see your point. I just don't believe that the facts matter.

People are irrational. They are driven by emotion, how they feel. There's also this issue of the average American being too busy to keep up with politics the way we do. Even very intelligent people are susceptible to soundbites and slogans because they don't have time to sift through all the information. I just think we do ourselves a disservice when we fail to acknowledge this fact. Corruption, Bush fatigue, and the war gave the Democrats 2006. The crash of the economy and Bush/McCain ineptness, Obama's appeal and a greatly run campaign with strong coattails gave us 2008.

Misinformation, apathy, lies propagated from the Right bolstered by a complicit and lazy Corporate Media, dissatisfaction, impatience and misplaced blame led to our loss in 2010.

[DCBob]

49. yeah, I think you are right.

The "Low Infos" that only read/hear the headlines first reaction will be to blame the President for most anything that goes wrong. However, over time once the situation has stabilized then the President also gets credit for keeping it from getting worse.

[Barack_America]

10. This is why they include a margin of error.

Larger picture

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[CreekDog]

12. I agree but also consider "weekend effect"

and who is more likely to get polled on the weekend versus weekdays.

[sufrommich]

14. Obama will be well ahead by November.

The Romney campaign is self destructing, they've seen the internals and know they can't win.

[KharmaTrain]

16. Good! Stay Hungry My Friends...

I've been seeing plenty of posts around here from people ready to spike the football and put a fork in Bishop Willard and the rushpublicans. Maybe this will be a wake up call that there are still 49 very rough and tough days ahead. These goons have millions still ready to spend with plenty of lies and no hesitation to use them. There's still a lot of heavy lifting to be done...phones to ring, doors to knock on and people to register and get to the polls.

Remember, it's the state polls that matter...270 electoral votes...not national popularity numbers.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. But The EC Follows The Pop Vote

The larger the pop vote margin the larger the EC margin and more likely they won't diverge.

[KharmaTrain]

21. The EC is 50 Separate Elections...

Gallup and the others are snapshots of a political mood but not one that reflects what's going on inside state races. If the popular vote mattered we would have had President Gore.

Cheers...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Gore Won The Pop Vote By .05%

Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 3.2%
Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 1.9%

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Those seem like rather small odds and I suspect they get even lower as the popular vote increases.

I get the fact that there are fifty state races. But I also get the fact that Candidate X is not going to win the pop vote by a margin of more than a percentage point or so, which represents over a million voters, and lose the EC.

That hasn't happened since in the Tilden-Hayes election...

[KharmaTrain]

35. Imagine The Mayhem...

...if the election were thrown to the House to be decided. The corporate media would short-circuit from their own orgasms.

I'm hoping people get concerned by tight popularity poll numbers...as I said above, I was seeing too many here who think this election is a done deal. It isn't and the hardest work lies ahead.

Cheers...

[pnwmom]

20. If it's a likely voters poll, it deliberately undercounts Obama supporters

who didn't turn out to vote in 2010. The assumption is that if you didn't vote then you are less likely to vote now.

That computer model won't work very well this time around.

[former9thward]

25. It is registered voters.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

[RepublicansRZombies]

22. The polls are just as corrupt as the corporate media

It's all about manufacturing consent.

[gcomeau]

23. Calm down

Obama's post convention high polling days are dropping off the 7 day average now and we're just getting into the period where these latest developments will start being reflected. It's one day. You get worried if it lasts a week or two.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Too Many Nervous Nellies

To get a real feel for the race you need to look at all the state and nat'l polls as well as the betting sites and there Obama is doing quite well...


Also, which campaign is constantly on their heels.

[leveymg]

28. Rasmus and Gallup are both outliers - GOP push polls. Not that close, but Libya hurt

Obama, as does any suggestion of failure the ongoing operations or the start of new wars. America is sick of wars in the Mideast, North Africa and South Asia.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. I Tend To Agree That Mayhem In The M E Doesn't Help The Pres

But it's beyond silly to just look at one poll.

Statisticians like Nate Silver and Sam Wang nail almost all elections, at every level, by averaging all of them.

[leveymg]

31. I'm not sure its really registering until now what the hell's going on. But, it isn't good . . .

unless it gives the neocons -- or more precisely, those influenced by them -- pause to think about the potential of more blowback from regime change operations.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. Just As An Observer The Optics Are Bad

It looks like the world is in flames though it's a small part of the world and a relatively small percentage of people are participating.

Would Romney trade his hand for the president's hand in this election?

You betcha.

[Zalatix]

59. And Romney's horribly inaccurate shoot before he aims comments didn't hurt him, too?

[Arugula Latte]

30. I think Obama is definitely up, especially where it counts, and he'll win, but

that it is even within 15 points sickens me about this country.

[RedStateLiberal]

32. The vast majority of people don't pay attention to politics.

Not like we do, so don't fret about the popular vote polls.

What really matters is electoral votes and Obama has it in the bag at this point.

Just look at this map that excludes Rasmussen polls:

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Sep18-noras.html

Even if Rmoney manages to swing all the states that are currently 'Barely Dem' he doesn't have enough EVs to win. He would also need one of the states that are currently 'Likely Dem'.

With the damage he's done to his own campaign, I cannot even imagine a scenario where he could reverse the trend that is showing a landslide victory for Obama.

[ProSense]

37. Look at Chuck Todd and the other MSM apologists.

They do everything to create the impression that Romney's foot-in-mouth isn't that bad. Frankly, this is going to work. They may succeed in confusing a few people each time, but the momentum is on the President's side and most polls show he's solidifying support among Democrats and winning over independents. He has completely erased Mitt's only advantange on the economy, which was the result of hype to begin with.

[WooWooWoo]

38. here's the deal (since you asked)...

any poll that doesn't have either Romney or Obama up by 5 or more....

is meaningless. Otherwise it's all within the margin of error.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

52. That's Incorrect

If you have ten polls and the average of those polls show Candidate X with a four point lead it's a mathematical certainty that Candidate X is in the lead and not all ten polls are wrong.

The more polls, the more numbers, the more robust the findings.

[just1voice]

39. Gallup is a republican polling company

That's the deal.

[WI_DEM]

48. no, it's a tracking poll and they fluctuate. Did you call it a GOP firm when Obama was 7 points

ahead?

[still_one]

53. Yes it is a tracking poll and with everythingnthatnhas happened since the convention it doesn't say

Very much for the citizens of this country.

[Joe the Revelator]

62. No its not.....don't be like the GOP and call all polls you don't like suspect

[RainbowOverTexas]

40. maybe

Obama was up by 7 in gallup and 5 in rasmussen a week ago. I guess the convention bounce is gone.

[Zalatix]

41. Obama is up against roughly the same economic conditions in place that UTTERLY sank Jimmy Carter

These polls show just how thick the hull of the Good Ship Obama is. Or how powerful his guns are as he takes shots at Rmoney.

Rmoney has totally squandered away his opportunities.

[renie408]

42. /\ This /\

I have been hearing all along how tight a race this was going to be and how Romney was going to walk over Obama. Most people, even people here, thought that the economy would tank Obama. While I personally cannot believe he is not leading by 53 points, a 3 point lead is pretty good with the economic baggage Obama is dragging behind him.

I wish polls would shift more for Obama, but these are early days yet. And there is no reason to think that Romney is just going to miraculously get his shit together. He has to manage SEVEN MORE WEEKS without screwing up. Because make no mistake, the past eight days have taken their toll. He is using up any leeway for mistakes he may have had rapidly.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. There Was Seventeen Percent Inflation During Carter's Term Which Affected Everyone

The effects of eight percent unemployment are more concentrated and more painful for those unemployed but it's not the same.

Also, the stock market has doubled under Obama. It was flat under Carter.

And there's no hostage situation ...

[cali]

45. spot on.

[WI_DEM]

47. Obviously you weren't alive under Carter because things are much different today

inflation was high, today's it low. Interest rates were high. Today they are relatively low. The Stock Market sucked. Today it's doing well. Unemployment is high now but is going in the right direction. When Carter ran in 1980 it was going up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. The Pubbies Are Pushing That Narrative Hard

The economy was much worse in 1980 and historians pretty much have concluded what really broke that race wide open was the realization the hostages weren't coming back.

[Zalatix]

58. So why isn't Obama leaving Rmoney in the dust?

The entire GOP has completely taken a dump on women's rights. That alone should have been an extinction-level blunder.

[RainbowOverTexas]

67. what?

Carter was up on Reagan like 8 points pre debates. If Obama's hull is strong, Carter was unsinkable.

[WI_DEM]

46. Why not get a grip!? Jesus Christ it's a tracking poll those will be up and down

and Gallup goes back a week so yeah, it could include Libya.

[still_one]

51. The country is made up of a large segment of racists. I can only say if those jack asseselects

Romney the women, poor, and middle class will be screwed for decades! And I hate to say it, they will deserve it

[WI_DEM]

55. tracking polls always fluctuate--they did in 2008, too.

[still_one]

56. I don't argue that, but other polls are seem to be trending toward even also

[WI_DEM]

60. which ones?

[still_one]

68. I had thought I heard it on Bloomberg, but looking at the results it looks like your assessment is

correct

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. These Cassandras Are Killing My Buzz. I'm logging off

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/18/latest_national_polls.html

Seven polls, six showing O in the lead, and this was before Willard told half the nation to drop dead.

[WI_DEM]

61. I hear you.

[Butterbean]

63. Really? I never follow polls because the make me twitchy. I thought Obama had

a very comfortable lead in '08. Or maybe that was just my own perception that McCain was such an undesirable, non-viable candidate. *shrug*

[BlueinOhio]

64. Poll close

That is all needed to cheat at the polls with the electronic voting machines.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

66. Just remember, national polls mean nothing

This is a state by state battle, and Obama is winning it.