Have y'all seen this? Biden's whipping Trump in TEXAS!!!!

[Trueblue Texan]

Yeeeehawww!

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/07/12/joe-biden-builds-lead-over-donald-trump-in-reliably-red-texas-as-voters-sour-on-handling-of-virus/

Turnin' her BLUE, babes!

[jimlup]

1. Work for Texas yes but ...

assume the nightmare scenario.

The nightmare scenario comes down to Wisconsin. All in for Wisconsin!

[gristy]

2. Presuming the undecided folks break 2:1 for Biden, then we get Biden +9

52% to 43%

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Sounds like TruthIsAll circa 2004

I would know how to wager on your number, just like TruthIsAll got furious every time I told him all his projections and 99.99% certainty were wacko.

Texas has 42% conservatives. Polls mean nothing given that reality. This is no different than Rachel Maddow chirping in 2016 while waving a poll in the air claiming Hillary only down 4 in South Carolina.

Texas is not impossible but it would require a Biden national margin of something like 8 points to barely drag Texas along.

One of the under reported variables of certain states is the male/female ratio. Texas is near parity in that category, just like Arizona and Wisconsin. We aren't going to receive the typical gender gap net in those states simply because there aren't the typical number of women to enable it. Consequently I'm not going to fall for any artificially high Biden projections in those 3 states. Math dictates.

[Trueblue Texan]

7. Come on...no one said the election is over, but I don't believe we've been here before.

[TomSlick]

3. IF Biden wins Texas, it will be game over.

A complete repudiation of Trump.

[Xolodno]

4. I'll take it with cautious optimism.

But for certain, Texas is now in play....and the GOP now has to spend money there to defend it.

Which is why I read on another thread that they are practically threatening donors for more money. Yes, they have a sizable war chest, but what good is it when you have to shore up your base. It could be why Dump is so fixated on the base, he loses them, then its all over. Probably looking at keeping his base safe and then try to trash Biden at the last minute somehow that turns voters off of him.

[Quixote1818]

5. My sister lives near Highland Park and before the middle terms all I saw

for miles in one of the most wealthy communities in the country was Beto signs. The cities in Texas are very blue, the country folks there are 90% GOP nuts. But it seems to be shifting pretty fast as the cities grow.

[dalton99a]

11. +1. Beto bumper stickers are still a common sight on Texas roads and highways

[BannonsLiver]

8. If there's no football Trump loses Texas and Florida IMO

Particularly if there’s no high school or college football.

[Trueblue Texan]

12. Excellent point!

[lindysalsagal]

9. Might be enough for magat to resign and nab the pense pardon

And at this point I'd welcome that.

[Amishman]

10. This is more the wheels coming off the Trump train than Texas going blue

Cornyn is polling significantly better than Trump

[Trueblue Texan]

13. one stripe at a time...

[GulfCoast66]

14. I don't see Biden winning it. But republicans will have to spend there.

Same as in Georgia.

The playing field is shifting in our favor but it is far from a done deal.

However, I think we will take Florida. Obama won here both times.

[smirkymonkey]

15. I really think this is a possibility.

I spoke to a friend of mine today who lives in the Houston area (Montgomery county) today and she really thinks that there is a chance to turn Texas blue.

She is now a corp. exec, but spent her earlier years working on a number of Democratic campaigns and relocated there for her job, but she thinks that people are extremely frustrated by the increase of Covid cases in the state and are getting really frustrated by Trump's inaction.

She has very good instincts about these things and she thinks it's possible that Texas could probably eke out a win for the Dems.

[Trueblue Texan]

16. Montgomery County is REDDEST of RED counties!

Is she talking about folks in her county or does she just live there?

[smirkymonkey]

17. She just lives there and they are folks in her county, but she says they are getting sick of him.

She and her husband are about as left-wing as you can get. She admits that her neighbors are pretty right-wing, but she said they are getting less bold about defending him. She seems to think that they are becoming disillusioned. That doesn't necessarily mean that they will vote Dem, but they might not vote Trump.

I don't live there so I don't really know what the situation is, but for some reason she seems to be pretty optimistic from what she has seen. That doesn't mean that all the right-wingers are going to go blue, but from what she says, it seems like a lot of the undecideds are rejecting the republican party.