Here's a link to a COVID post I made in March

[SiliconValley_Dem]

I mentioned that if only 15% of US got the virus infection, the CPFR would translate to close to 2 million deaths ny end of pandemic

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213097067

Current CPFR per Johns Hopkins months later is about 3.4 percent and 4 million have tested positive this far. CDC studies indicate the actual infection count may be 10 times higher.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Fortunately, the stay at home orders, mask mandates and other interventions have taken us away from the upper end projections of deaths, but the fact that we are already at 150,000 official deaths (with estimated deaths due to COVID likely quite a bit higher) is appalling especially considering how well other countries have brought this virus under control.

[ProfessorGAC]

1. Higher Deaths

The limited information I've gotten from actuarial folks is that the unexpected death numbers hitting the life insurance companies, is at least 20% greater than explained by COVID.
So, unless something else unspecified has taken 30,000 lives without anybody noticing, that's a reasonable starting point for your "quite a bit higher".
I can't imagine any reason why these folks I know would lie to me.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

2. great corroboration-- we won't have good estimates of total deaths for a year or 2

it is scary how high the actual numbers likely are

[ProfessorGAC]

3. I Think Sources Like This...

...are going to be awfully solid. Insurance companies don't pay claims without knowing why so many customers died.
For them, paying the claim is a double hit. They have an outflow of cash and that premium money is never going to be revenue again. They've got no reason to fabricate causes of death.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

4. oh I agree with you and your source

i just think estimated deaths will be significantly higher than additional 20% above official count when using flue season estimated deaths and Swine flu deaths as example

[ProfessorGAC]

5. Likely So

I haven't talked to any of those folks for a couple weeks.
Their estimate might be higher now, for all I know.
H1N1 ended up being a large % (nearly 60) but, a modest absolute number. (If 7,000 more deaths could be called modest)
These later numbers will dwarf the swine flu, even if the percentage never approaches 60.