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Thu Jul 30, 2020, 09:16 PM

Cook Political: Trump's Grip on the GOP is Slipping

The once rock-solid grip that the president had on his party seems to be slipping. Talking with pollsters and strategists from both sides this week, it's clear that Trump is suffering not just with Democrats and independents but also with GOP voters. They tell us of polling that shows Trump underwater in districts he carried easily in 2016. One GOP strategist told me that even in heavily Republican districts, Trump's job approval rating among Republicans has dropped 10-20 points. The KFF poll released last week found Trump's overall job approval rating among Republicans dropped 12 points between May and July. On handling coronavirus, the drop in GOP support was an even more dramatic 26 points.

Perhaps understanding he's losing support from his base (or more likely, as the New York Times' Maggie Haberman, Annie Karni, and Sydney Ember wrote this week, as a result of his instinct "to play to his base when campaigning under pressure" ), Trump has taken on the role of culture warrior instead of crisis manager.

Whether it's warning suburban (white) Americans of the threats of "low-income housing" (read: Black) being built in their neighborhoods, running ads featuring an older, white woman frantically trying to call 911 as a shadowy figure breaks into her home, or warning of rioters and looters running free in "Biden's America," Trump is hoping that selling fear will help to bring GOPers home.

But as Washington Post columnist and Ethics and Public Policy Center senior fellow Henry Olsen noted, just bringing GOP voters back isn't enough for Trump to win. "Trump and the GOP are losing because independents who might have backed them have turned away in the aftermath of the pandemic and the killing of George Floyd. To win, or just to make it close, the president and his party have to win them back." Winning them back will require Trump to prove he's not only taking this pandemic and this moment in history seriously but is making appreciable progress in getting the economy and life back to normal. The idea that Trump will be able to stay disciplined and focused enough to deliver on this seems unlikely. He will need something outside of his control to happen. Even good news about a vaccine trial or the easing up of COVID outbreaks may not be enough. Strategists who've been conducting polling and focus groups tell us that the voters Trump needs to win have basically tuned out and turned off this president. And, warns a GOP strategist, Biden is a tougher opponent than Trump has ever had to face. "Biden," says this strategist, "is acceptable for anyone with any grievance with Trump."

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/trumps-grip-gop-slipping

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Arrow 28 replies Author Time Post
Reply Cook Political: Trump's Grip on the GOP is Slipping (Original post)
brooklynite Jul 30 OP
Cha Jul 30 #1
Stuart G Jul 31 #2
uponit7771 Jul 31 #3
crickets Jul 31 #4
certainot Jul 31 #5
zentrum Jul 31 #8
certainot Jul 31 #11
zentrum Aug 1 #13
Sugarcoated Aug 1 #15
certainot Aug 1 #17
Roy Rolling Aug 3 #25
certainot Aug 3 #27
mnmoderatedem Jul 31 #6
zentrum Jul 31 #9
ProfessorGAC Jul 31 #12
bronxiteforever Jul 31 #7
honest.abe Jul 31 #10
Captain Zero Aug 3 #26
JCMach1 Aug 1 #14
Sugarcoated Aug 1 #16
JCMach1 Aug 1 #20
Poiuyt Aug 1 #18
Wounded Bear Aug 1 #19
Jack-o-Lantern Aug 1 #21
dalton99a Aug 1 #22
Sherman A1 Aug 2 #23
bucolic_frolic Aug 2 #24
marble falls Aug 3 #28

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Thu Jul 30, 2020, 09:17 PM

1. I would think because of trump himself & some

because of TLP exposing him.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Jul 31, 2020, 11:36 AM

2. Thank You for posting this...K and R

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Jul 31, 2020, 11:38 AM

3. Rats jumping ship, few of these people have any bravery associated with them fuck them.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Jul 31, 2020, 01:20 PM

4. K&R for visibility.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Jul 31, 2020, 03:45 PM

5. the cons will all head for the hills when limbaugh croaks - he's thehorse that brung trump and the

one that keeps the talk radio empire on the same page making excuses for trump andd attacking democrats

limbaugh compared himself to marlon brando today, seriously, and sounded a bit more croaky - he's losing it

republicans sense his departure will be cataclysmic for them, too bad dems can't see the opportunity to put rw radio out its misery with some activism

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Response to certainot (Reply #5)

Fri Jul 31, 2020, 05:29 PM

8. What about Hannity? And

……Tucker? Don't they have as much impact as Tush? Just an impression I have.

Is radio bigger than TV?

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Response to zentrum (Reply #8)

Fri Jul 31, 2020, 06:14 PM

11. rw radio is much more important than tv in this disaster.

radio is much more important than TV for selling alternative reality - no other medium allows them to do the same level of unchallenged coordinated repetition. and it can be locally coordinated - unlike fox. 20-40 radio stations in a single state attacking the state/local dem politicians and issues in chorus. the rw radio monopoly is the only major medium like it. TV, internet sources all have alternatives a click away - in most parts of the US there are no free easy alternaitives for politics and 1500 or so stations reach 50 mill a week apparently.

limbaugh is the one they built the radio monopoly around -hannity's a parrot/dolt who needs a lot of help. carlson too.

limbaugh is neighbor, golfer, and friend to trump.

limbaugh is the most talented liar on the planet and they can't replace him on 600 of the loudest stations on the planet with one person who they can trust. all they had to do was give it to limbaugh and he could spew bullshit for hours around one thing. he knew how to spin curent events. he could be more 'subtle' in inciting violence and his racism and sexism. on the big stuff and scoops it was limbaugh. and his dittoheads policed all the other talkers who would take their calls - his caller line is probably too fulll of paid callers.

whoever fed limbaugh the big stuff, including putin's guys probably can't trust anyone else. limbaugh's the guy who knows how much his lying has undermined democracy.


fakenewsradio.org

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Response to certainot (Reply #11)

Sat Aug 1, 2020, 12:18 AM

13. Thanks. Wow.

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Response to certainot (Reply #11)

Sat Aug 1, 2020, 04:24 AM

15. Lush Rimbaugh

more than any other human being has done a disservice to the world

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Response to Sugarcoated (Reply #15)

Sat Aug 1, 2020, 08:58 AM

17. the stealth intellectual and moral leader of the new republican party and when

you add up global warming, covid, single payer, iraq - it's death and destruction that can't be measured

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Response to certainot (Reply #11)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 01:57 AM

25. True...but more

Limbaugh’s influence is tied to the medium—radio. Mostly car radios, mostly commuters. Morning and afternoon drive, as the time slots are named.

American habits are changing, fewer commuters means fewer listeners, fewer captive listeners. And fewer Limbaugh sponsors. Which means no cash to spread propaganda.

Bye bye, Rush. You’ve become too expansive.

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Response to Roy Rolling (Reply #25)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:45 AM

27. all the other major mediums are part of the free speech spectrum and no where near as

useful as propaganda tools. and unlike most other media, it can be locally coordinated. it is the only unique advantage trump and the cons have, have had, for 30 years. continuing to ignore it is still the biggest political mistake in history.

limbaugh/radio led the COVID denial that is still getting thousands of people killed

putin/trump collusion ran through limbaugh and continues to. putin's been using our radio since at least 2008, using manafort and limbaugh to push palin on mccain.

radio has been the lead medium for 30 years. it might fade but for ignoring it for 30 years we got this disaster, with people thinking we've lost or will lose what democracy we have and somehow the stupidest president ever, with putin help, is going to destroy america - the problem was and still is the radio

it will play a huge part in many states in calling these elections fraudulent- after selling the pretext that fraud is common for democrats/'illegal aliens' in the first place in order to sell the suppression legislation

brazil's bolsanaro credit the 'brazillian limbaugh' , a guy who broadcasts from virginia!, with his success - and the amazon burns.....

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Jul 31, 2020, 03:53 PM

6. Egad! They may lose their congressional seats!


So caging children, selling out our country, sucking up to murderous dictators, sexually assaulting women and bragging about it, and the entire escapade of trump's transgression doesn't bother them at all.

When THEY feel their positions are in peril, only THEN to they separate themselves.

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Response to mnmoderatedem (Reply #6)

Fri Jul 31, 2020, 05:33 PM

9. That's exactly it. Not to...

…mention gutting the EPA, pulling out of Paris Climate, understaffing State and withdrawing from WHO. And being always, always, coyly racist as Fck.

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Response to mnmoderatedem (Reply #6)

Fri Jul 31, 2020, 06:25 PM

12. It Now Affects Them Personally

That's the way with the Repubs. "Fuck your feelings" until it's about their lives.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Jul 31, 2020, 04:44 PM

7. Kick and recommend for visibility

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Jul 31, 2020, 05:34 PM

10. I am beginning to think they might dump him at the convention.

Which could be quite a spectacle.

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #10)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 06:33 AM

26. Exactly why he wants no reporters.

There's going to be a challenge to him from the floor.

If not to take the nomination away, then to show Republicans, even if they don't vote for him, encouragement to split their ticket for Biden and down Ballot GOP.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Aug 1, 2020, 03:06 AM

14. They won't dump him... the election model to follow is 1932

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Response to JCMach1 (Reply #14)

Sat Aug 1, 2020, 04:25 AM

16. Can you elaborate?

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Response to Sugarcoated (Reply #16)

Sat Aug 1, 2020, 10:07 AM

20. 1932 a primer

There are also some insights as to how Biden may want to proceed with the campaign

https://millercenter.org/president/fdroosevelt/campaigns-and-elections

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Aug 1, 2020, 09:23 AM

18. I like this. Cook Political Report is very unbiased and nonpartisan

Their analysis is based on sound research

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Aug 1, 2020, 09:47 AM

19. Obviously, they're getting tired of all the winning...

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Aug 1, 2020, 08:07 PM

21. Why the fuck hasn't limbo died yet, stage 4 and all that.

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Response to Jack-o-Lantern (Reply #21)

Sat Aug 1, 2020, 10:21 PM

22. I think it was a scam.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sun Aug 2, 2020, 07:06 AM

23. I hope that this is the case

And we see positive results in November.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sun Aug 2, 2020, 09:56 AM

24. "culture warrior"???? Thugish Nazi is more like it. /nt

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 07:25 PM

28. Rats leaving the sinking ship.

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