“But if the trend continues, the question may no longer be whether Republicans can win the Senate —

[kpete]

If you’re with me so far, then it becomes really, really important to know whether were looking at a five seat pickup or worse, or whether an 18 to 20 seat pickup (or better) is possible or even likely. And here’s the thing. I’m inclined to think an 18 to 20 seat pickup or better is a reasonable bet. I base this on (a) the generic congressional ballot (GCB), and (b) Democracy Corps’ battleground polls. The GCB looks like about plus two for the Dems right now. On average over the last four cycles, the popular vote has come in about two points worse (for the Dems) than the mid-September average in the GCB. So that suggests the popular vote will be about even (most likely case). And research I’ve done in the past (and I think correlations Nate Silver has discussed in the past would show the same thing) suggests that would translate into about a 20-seat pickup for the Dems. If you read the last Democracy Corps memo on their battleground poll of the 54 most competitive districts, the bottom line seems to be about the same, but of course using totally different data. And that was before the conventions. But if the trend continues, the question may no longer be whether Republicans can win the Senate — but how vulnerable they are to losing the House. Finally there is this tidbit (teaser?) from Nate Silver at the very end of yesterday’s post on the Senate: “But if the trend continues, the question may no longer be whether Republicans can win the Senate — but how vulnerable they are to losing the House.”

To sum it up, I think the question of where the battle for the House stands is the underreported story of the last month. Get on it!

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/09/is_it_all_about_the_house.php?ref=fpblg

[BlueStreak]

1. I could die a happy man if I saw Cantor and Ryan lose their seats this year.

Even if we didn't take over the House, that would send a very clear message to teabaggers.

[Vincardog]

2. I see the House being Democratic in 2012.

[librechik]

3. maybe, but definitely in 2014.

Stupid Americans are going to give the teabaggers one more chance to get off their asses and do something. Of course those liars won't. So 2014 might be better opportunity for Dems in the House.

I know, it's so dispiriting, but I think getting a 50 seat pickup is unfortunately beyond our demographics this year. I hope I am wrong.

[bemildred]

4. Past events are no longer a reliable guide.

We need to keep pushing, pushing, pushing.

We want Republican blood & guts all over the floor, politically speaking, when this is done, then we will get some of that "change" we need. And we almost certainly will get back a responsible opposition party, which we really do need.