Key swing state slips away from Trump. He has trailed in every public poll in Pennsylvania since Jun

[Demovictory9]

‘Hating Joe Biden doesn’t juice up their base’: Key swing state slips away from Trump
Trump has trailed in every public poll in Pennsylvania since June.

PHILADELPHIA — Senior citizens and suburban voters are sinking President Donald Trump’s campaign across the country.

But here in Pennsylvania — home to one of the largest populations of residents age 65 or older and where suburbanites comprise more than half of the electorate — their defection to Joe Biden is hurting Trump even more acutely.

It’s a very big problem in a swing state that’s central to his Rust Belt path to victory. Four years ago, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate since 1988 to carry Pennsylvania, in part by winning older and suburban voters, as well as blue-collar white workers in ancestrally Democratic areas. Now, with less than 100 days till Election Day, surveys show those voters are eyeing something different yet again.

Joe Biden has an overall early lead in the state of 6 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average, and has led Trump in all 12 public polls released since the beginning of June.


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To drive down Biden’s support among suburban and older voters, Trump’s campaign has spent at least $4.5 million on misleading campaign ads across Pennsylvania that claim police will be defunded by a Biden administration. Biden has said repeatedly he opposes the idea.

Rep. Dwight Evans, a Philadelphia Democrat who represents a majority-Black district, said he worries about the spots, as well as Trump’s attempts to stoke fear about recent civil unrest and crime in the largest city in the state.

“When he talks about these beautiful suburbs and then says Democratic cities are not run right, he’s throwing codes out the window. He’s just blatant,” he said. “I will not deny that does concern me.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/02/swing-states-slip-from-trump-390164

[no_hypocrisy]

1. Trump can't use the 2016 Playbook.

Joe ain't Hillary.

[Sugarcoated]

2. No he is not

And he is very much loved by working class Democrats, moderates, independents and even many Republicans here in Pennsylvania. Fair or not it was the exact opposite with Hillary Clinton. Scranton Joe☺

[Norbert]

3. dump is fighting voters remorse too

[beachbumbob]

4. Pennsylvania will be considered out of reach of trump pretty soon to join Michigan as solid

Biden pickup. Now lets get people registered and GOTV

[Amishman]

6. This is why we needed Biden at the top of the ticket

PA, MI, and other rust belt states have a heavier number of older, whiter, moderate voters. Biden is very appealing to that crowd.

[beachbumbob]

7. yep, if Biden hadn't been dealing with the family issues in 2015/2016, he would have beaten Hillary

in a primary run and we be in a different situation today as 2016 would have been a significant victory for democrats.

[SpaceNeedle]

5. Biden will never lose PA

He has Scranton roots and everyone knows it.

[LisaM]

11. So does Hillary. Her father was from there.

Her family spent summers in Pennsylvania in a cabin their family built in 1921.

However, when she tried to bring up her Pennsylvania roots, she was mocked for it. I remember it well.

I dearly want Biden to win Pennsylvania, but if/when he does, I think it will be clear that misogyny was at play in suburban Pennsylvania in 2016.

[SpaceNeedle]

13. Different dynamics

Hillary was seen as an incumbent. Trump an outsider - people chose to give him a chance.
Now Trump is an incumbent and completely fucked everything up.

[LisaM]

14. There's still some level of unfairness.

I mean, she wasn't in office at the time, for one thing. Similar to Biden, who's now been out of office for almost four years. It baffles me. Why would someone who'd held a Cabinet position four years earlier be seen as any more of an incumbent than someone who was VP four years earlier? I don't get voters who can choose candidates with wildly different positions two election cycles in a row.

[SpaceNeedle]

15. She wasn't but Obama was and she was Obama's heir apparent.

[NNadir]

8. I still see Trump flags and signs in NE PA. There's one asshole redneck in Springtown...

...who has his Trump flag, his confederate flag and a bunch of other obnoxious stuff displayed all over his Texaco station.

I have no idea where he keeps his Klan robes though; they're not on display.

The local church there has a "Hate has no home here" sign on the lawn though.

[TheDemsshouldhireme]

9. According to RealClear Politics

Hillary never trailed in in PA in 16 either. She was up by 9 into October. As someone who lives here in PA I would say dont get too comfortable. We made that mistake last time.

[Tommymac]

10. At least in Allegheny County we now have Verifiable Vote Machines.

Will be much harder (though not impossible) to rig.

They leave a paper trail, unlike the ones used in 2016 which only counted the votes and gave no paper trail.

The old ones were very easy to hack as these things go.

[modrepub]

12. The NE is Key

Hillary lost the NE part of the state near Scranton-Wilkes Barre. She did great in Philly and the counties surrounding it, which were traditionally Republican strongholds. If Biden can do well in the SE, moderately well in the Lehigh Valley and hold his own in the NE (plus do relatively well in Allegheny County) he should carry the state pretty easily.

If you look at a map of counties that went for Trump and population trends you'd see that they'd be pretty similar. While morbid, Trump supporting counties probably have less voters around this election cycle so he has less to work with.

[duforsure]

16. By refusing to get seniors ongoing direct checks every month

Higher than the one time $1200 which makes them only getting $300 a month compared to the unemployed getting $2400 a month, is really really bad, and trump is trying to screw over the elderly again. No wonder they are running from trump and all republicans. Florida may be lost from trump and Mitch refusing to give them an ongoing check until this is over.