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Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:20 AM

So both Fivethirtyeight and RCP are showing "tightening" ....

Both in election polling and approval.

WTF is going on?

Just a reversion to the mean, or is Trump "strongman" impression actually working?

Ugh. Maybe a useless worry post... I'm just stunned at the percentage of people who support this monster...

29 replies, 2247 views

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Reply So both Fivethirtyeight and RCP are showing "tightening" .... (Original post)
Happy Hoosier Aug 2020 OP
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #1
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #6
lagomorph777 Aug 2020 #25
still_one Aug 2020 #2
safeinOhio Aug 2020 #3
dchill Aug 2020 #14
marmar Aug 2020 #4
Happy Hoosier Aug 2020 #9
Cirque du So-What Aug 2020 #18
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #5
Dem2 Aug 2020 #8
Happy Hoosier Aug 2020 #11
FM123 Aug 2020 #21
unc70 Aug 2020 #7
Fiendish Thingy Aug 2020 #10
writes3000 Aug 2020 #12
OhZone Aug 2020 #13
Happy Hoosier Aug 2020 #24
OhZone Aug 2020 #28
patricia92243 Aug 2020 #15
Amishman Aug 2020 #16
MoonlitKnight Aug 2020 #17
Squinch Aug 2020 #19
NCDem47 Aug 2020 #20
tman Aug 2020 #22
grantcart Aug 2020 #23
Happy Hoosier Aug 2020 #26
Music Man Aug 2020 #27
obamanut2012 Aug 2020 #29

Response to Happy Hoosier (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:26 AM

1. It's gone from 40-41 percent approval

Not sure that means anything.

If the average lead drops down to 3-4 percent or Trump's avg lead in BG states re-emerges ok then worry. Til then hyper focus on polling this far out is of limited utility.

October polls are what matter more, that's when early voting is in full force everywhere and people are really paying attention.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #1)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:31 AM

6. The movement is likely tied to Rasmussen, which has Trump at 51%.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #6)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 11:34 AM

25. Assmuffin is always an outlier. I ignore them.

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:27 AM

3. Just went to their site and I don't really see that

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Response to safeinOhio (Reply #3)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:38 AM

14. Yep. Biden up +8.3 in national poll average.

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:28 AM

4. "Maybe a useless worry post"


Pretty much.


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Response to marmar (Reply #4)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:35 AM

9. Yeah, I think you are right.

This weekend was stressful for other reasons and I think I am overreacting.

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Reply #9)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:44 AM

18. Now you don't have to worry alone

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:29 AM

5. lmao I'm out of this is what it's going to be like the next three months.

Go disconnect your internet, find a cabin in the mountain and chill there until election day if you're going to be triggered by even marginal movement in the polls because you're not gonna make it to November, my friend.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #5)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:34 AM

8. Agreed

First thing I saw when I arrived here (DU), I'm closing this tab now - don't need the anxiety.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #5)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:36 AM

11. Good advice!

I want this Mutha**&^er gone so bad I can taste it and I want Joe to win by 20 points. I'm a nervous wreck this AM for some reason.

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Reply #11)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 11:12 AM

21. I know just how you feel!

There are some days it just shakes you a little harder than others.
I too come on DU to post worries in those moments - sometimes I find support, sometimes I find heckling, but at least I always find that I am not alone.

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Original post)


Response to Happy Hoosier (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:35 AM

10. Possibly a shift from RV polls to LV polls?

Don’t pollsters typically shift from Registered Voters to Likely Voters around this time?

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #10)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:36 AM

12. Yes, that's it. I've been watching for that shift.

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:37 AM

13. Not that much tightening -

Compare Rump then vs Rump now -


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Response to OhZone (Reply #13)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 11:33 AM

24. I get your point... but....

They are not the same scale.

Top one is an 18 point spread, the bottom is 12 points

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Reply #24)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 01:32 PM

28. Rump just started lower in 2016 -

and in 2016, actually ahead a few times at this point already.

SO far he's been solidly behind the whole time.

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:38 AM

15. Most people know only what any president tells them.

He has painted a rosy picture of how well he has handled everything, and uninformed people believe him. Thus, they approve him and will vote for him.

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:40 AM

16. portland and other protests not going over well

activists burning things and trying to get at a federal courthouse does not play well with a lot of people.

defund the police is also a really bad phrase and souring some people

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:41 AM

17. The only thing tightening

Is Trump’s sphincter.

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:47 AM

19. Yes. I noticed that in 538 too because I check it obsessively. Hopefully it's just noise but

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 10:48 AM

20. I'm not a professional pollster or poll historian,

but, I think, races nearly always tighten closer to election. We need to ready for that.

"In 10 of the 15 presidential elections from 1944- 2000, the candidate who was leading in the polls on Labor Day saw his margin shrink by the time of the final poll. (This includes Thomas Dewey, who managed to lose to Harry Truman in 1948 despite never trailing in the polls.) If you average together all 15 of those contests, the Labor Day spread was cut in half by Election Day—although the early leader won the popular vote in every case except Dewey-Truman. In other words, while last-minute poll tightening is far from death and taxes, it is a real phenomenon."

[link:https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2008/10/why-do-polls-always-tighten-right-before-an-election.html|

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 11:29 AM

22. They're gonna get even tighter. Relax.

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 11:30 AM

23. Great links so we know what you are referring to

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 11:50 AM

27. While it's hard to fathom Trump's work the past few months making people like him *more*,

I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of "tightening" as November approaches. The media and others will try to amplify the horse race aspect of things, we'll freak out, etc. Biden's VP selection will simultaneously energize our side as well as renew scrutiny of the ticket. So these things may be a wash.

More and more undecideds are going to select a candidate as November approaches, and we've got to remember too that not all of the undecideds will go to Biden. Some will go to Trump because they're really just Republicans at heart, period.

So there may be periods where the Biden and Trump gap grows and shrinks, but the bottom line is that on the whole, I'd rather be Joe Biden than Donald Trump right now.

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Original post)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 02:07 PM

29. useless worry post

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