The Coronavirus Is Never Going Away

[Nevilledog]

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/coronavirus-will-never-go-away/614860/

The coronavirus that causes COVID-19 has sickened more than 16.5 million people across six continents. It is raging in countries that never contained the virus. It is resurging in many of the ones that did. If there was ever a time when this coronavirus could be contained, it has probably passed. One outcome is now looking almost certain: This virus is never going away.

The coronavirus is simply too widespread and too transmissible. The most likely scenario, experts say, is that the pandemic ends at some point—because enough people have been either infected or vaccinated—but the virus continues to circulate in lower levels around the globe. Cases will wax and wane over time. Outbreaks will pop up here and there. Even when a much-anticipated vaccine arrives, it is likely to only suppress but never completely eradicate the virus. (For context, consider that vaccines exist for more than a dozen human viruses but only one, smallpox, has ever been eradicated from the planet, and that took 15 years of immense global coordination.) We will probably be living with this virus for the rest of our lives.

Back in the winter, public-health officials were more hopeful about SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. SARS, a closely related coronavirus, emerged in late 2002 and infected more than 8,000 people but was snuffed out through intense isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine. The virus was gone from humans by 2004. SARS and SARS-CoV-2 differ in a crucial way, though: The new virus spreads more easily—and in many cases asymptomatically. The strategies that succeeded with SARS are less effective when some of the people who transmit COVID-19 don’t even know they are infected. “It’s very unlikely we’re going to be able to declare the kind of victory we did over SARS,” says Stephen Morse, an epidemiologist at Columbia University.

If not, then what does the future of COVID-19 look like? That will depend, says Yonatan Grad, on the strength and duration of immunity against the virus. Grad, an infectious-disease researcher at Harvard, and his colleagues have modeled a few possible trajectories. If immunity lasts only a few months, there could be a big pandemic followed by smaller outbreaks every year. If immunity lasts closer to two years, COVID-19 could peak every other year.

*snip*

[world wide wally]

2. Like the common cold... but deadlier

[TheBlackAdder]

4. It's not just deaths -- COVID causes 75% of those infected to have permanent heart damage too.

.

It causes damage to multiple organs and rain tissue. While children don't die at a high rate, they are affected by potentially chronic impairments and reduced life expectancy. The younger, while still developing, seem to be greater influenced by this virus.

.

[FBaggins]

5. No it doesn't. Or rather... there is no reason to believe so.

That's a serious exaggeration of a single study with only 100 participants. A third of them had been hospitalized (meaning the group was already more seriously impacted than the normal COVID infection)... and the bulk of the heart damage was similar to that caused by other respiratory viruses that are very often temporary.

The author clearly said "we do not yet have the direct evidence for [long-term] consequences"

[uponit7771]

6. Even if it was 25% of that its still horrible

[FBaggins]

7. We don't know that it's ANY

Whether it's a drug that Trump wishes were useful or potentially bad news... drawing conclusions from tiny sample sizes that are not controlled is irresponsible.

[RussBLib]

3. well, I will be taking the vaccine (when it is safe)

and I expect that there will be some therapeutics too, so, even though the virus might never truly go away, those of us believing in the science will likely build up immunities to it, while the science-deniers will likely be knocked off a few at a time, dying horrible deaths.

I certainly don't wish that fate on anyone (except maybe Trump), but if you are going to deny the science you are opening yourself up to grisly things..

[ellenrr]

8. I wouldn't care if they were exposing themselves to the nasty bug.

unfortunately, they are exposing the rest of us too.
There is no certainty and no consensus among the experts whether or not people develop immunity to the virus.

[RussBLib]

9. Still so much to learn about the virus

People want answers, NOW!

Trump is such an impediment.