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Phoenix61

(16,991 posts)
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 08:31 AM Aug 2020

Most of the coronavirus tests the U.S. does are worthless. But there's a solution that could work

"...The collapse of U.S. testing has, in short, exposed its fatal flaw. Costly and cumbersome PCR tests are fine when an outbreak is relatively modest; in that situation, you can afford to invest in a slower, labor-intensive test that won’t miss any positive cases because you want to stop the virus from spreading before it’s too late.

But when it’s already too late — when more than 4.8 million infections have been reported and nearly 160,000 people have died — the PCR infrastructure can’t keep up.

That’s why experts such as Dr. Michael Mina, an assistant professor of epidemiology at both Harvard Medical School and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, are suggesting we scrap it and start over.''

https://www.yahoo.com/news/most-of-the-coronavirus-tests-the-us-does-are-worthless-but-theres-a-solution-that-could-actually-work-and-stop-the-spread-154815346.html

I'm don't usually cite Yahoo but I thought this article was really interesting.

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Most of the coronavirus tests the U.S. does are worthless. But there's a solution that could work (Original Post) Phoenix61 Aug 2020 OP
Yup.. they are right. hlthe2b Aug 2020 #1
Good find, Phoenix. crickets Aug 2020 #2
The part about 5 times more than we are testing now Phoenix61 Aug 2020 #3

crickets

(25,946 posts)
2. Good find, Phoenix.
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 12:05 PM
Aug 2020
Americans have zero appetite for even targeted, localized sequels.


Not true. Somebody should have doublechecked before making that declaration.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2020/07/23/majority-of-americans-expect-another-shutdown-per-harris-poll/#2d176b023d6b

The Harris Poll tracker demonstrates that Americans have come to view lockdowns as a necessary evil. In a previous survey two weeks ago, a whopping eight in 10 Americans (80%) said a shutdown was an effective way to curb the spread of the virus.

Americans want to see governors and mayors take responsibility amid what is seen as a lack of federal leadership. In the most recent survey, three-quarters of Americans (75%) say that if the federal government does not issue a national stay-at-home order, their governor should issue a statewide shutdown. This belief is held by a solid majority regardless of political party (86% Democrats vs. 63% Republicans) and across all age groups (83% seniors vs. 68% Gen Z/Millennials).

And what if their governor does not issue a lockdown order? Over six in 10 Americans (63%) would then like to see their mayor take the reins and issue such a mandate.


What we need is both a shutdown and proper testing in tandem. Shutdowns are a lot harder to stomach without more immediate feedback to show that they are slowing and stopping the spread. (They also work better when people have financial relief to help them through it, but that's a different discussion.) Having the information in your own hands with a home test would go a long way to keeping people settled in place long enough to see the infection rate go down, both in the news and firsthand in their own households and neighborhoods. It would help a lot to ameliorate the frustration of just watching from afar as hospitalization and death rates dance up and down in the news. It would help get most the nation on the same page at the same time to get the virus under control.

It would also help avoid what we are watching in real time right now with the reopening of schools.

From Yahoo:

“If everyone took an antigen test today — even identifying only 50 percent of the positives — we would still identify 50 percent of all current infections in the country,” Jha has explained. That’s “five times more than the 10 percent of cases we are likely currently identifying because we are testing so few people.”


The ability to use rapid antigen tests in home would improve testing accuracy somewhat by giving people more control to retest themselves over time, giving them a better chance of hitting the window when the results would be more accurate. It would take a lot of the load off of overburdened labs as well.

This means we need someone at the top willing to get the money going (FU, Mitch), get the distribution lines going (FU, Jared), and get the education and public information out there (FU, Trump and Birx). It's going to take Biden and a qualified pandemic task force to get it to work. The same crowd who refuse to wear masks will likely ignore this effort as well, but with enough people on board it could still work a lot better than what we have now.

Phoenix61

(16,991 posts)
3. The part about 5 times more than we are testing now
Fri Aug 7, 2020, 12:58 PM
Aug 2020

Really caught my attention. And a spit test you could even give to kids.

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