Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
2 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
U.S. will pass 5,000,000 CoronaVirus cases today ... (Original Post) aggiesal Aug 2020 OP
Certainly makes one wonder virgogal Aug 2020 #1
32 million people around the world have to die lapfog_1 Aug 2020 #2

lapfog_1

(29,191 posts)
2. 32 million people around the world have to die
Sat Aug 8, 2020, 01:29 PM
Aug 2020

here is the math...

162,000 dead / 5,000,000 (confirmed case fatality rate) is 3.24%

Actual CFR is likely 1/5th of that (assumption that there is 5 x as many cases as confirmed by PCR testing)... .648% actual fatality rate.

7,200,000,000 x .7 (herd immunity percentage) = 5,040,000,000.

5,040,000,000 x AFR of .648% = 32,659,000

so, unless the vaccine is available before the pandemic reaches everywhere, 32M people in the world will likely die.

Here in the US it is a race against time... we are doing some things right (many of us wear a mask and social distance)... but we are rushing headlong into a very stupid decision to reopen schools, thus creating numerous super spreader events.

320,000,000 x 70% = 224,000,000 x .648% AFR = 1,451,000 people here will die in the next year as the virus continues to spread exponentially through the population. and we are now 162,000 into that number or over 11%.


Latest Discussions»General Discussion»U.S. will pass 5,000,000 ...