New COVID-19 inflections downward trend.

[Steelrolled]

I haven't heard this reported at all, but it seems like the infection rate has clearly peaked and the 7-day average has been down for 16 days in a row. Am I missing something?




Edit to add source (very popular site): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[Buckeye_Democrat]

1. Mask mandates are paying dividends!

[Steelrolled]

3. That is my hope

I have never seen such high compliance. Very few blatant violations of the order, and I'm really not worried about a few here and there.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

7. I've been so surprised by the widespread compliance here...

... in my part of Ohio.

I'd seen several scowls at me by non-maskers weeks ago, and I assumed most people would refuse to wear them even with a mandate.

The new infection rate for Ohio is even lower than Hawaii now!

[Cracklin Charlie]

40. Here, too.

Western Missouri!

I haven’t even seen one anti mask incident. Shocking.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

41. Great!

All it took was a mandate, which I've wanted for months now! All we had to do was look at the results in places like Tokyo!

I'm sure there's still a few stubborn fools around here, but I haven't seen them yet.

Good luck in your neck of the woods! I'm sure the masks will be a big help there too!

[Cracklin Charlie]

45. Hey, can I ask a Buckeye a question?

I am supposed to travel to Northwest Ohio in about a month. I had seen something about travel restrictions there. Do you know anything about that?

We have to go to a small town near Lima, pick up something, and then head to Terre Haute Indiana to spend the night.

I don’t want to break any ordinances.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

46. I'm not aware of travel restrictions here, BUT...

... that's one of those topics that I've pretty much ignored.
I've seen restrictions to places like NY posted here, but I barely even read those details.


I'd just Google it. I'll do it too after I post this reply.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

47. It looks like you're okay!

Ohio is only concerned about people from states with infection rates above 15% right now.

This is from the official Ohio public health site regarding Covid-19:

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/families-and-individuals/covid-19-travel-advisory/covid-19-travel-advisory

[Cracklin Charlie]

48. Thanks!

Will check as trip draws near.

[dawg day]

50. Indiana has a mask mandate (more or less- GOP gov backed down), but most everything is open

You won't have any problem getting to Terre Haute and staying there for the night. The highway gas station and fastfood places, the employees at least are masked. Just stop quickly and get back in the car.

[Cracklin Charlie]

66. Glad to hear it!

We will obey all mandates we encounter. And we don’t want to or need to make many stops.

Thanks! Best to you!

[Ms. Toad]

52. It has plateaued. Has not really gone down yet.

But plateauing is big, since we were heading up pretty fast, and the trend would have accelerated.

I'm surprised at the compliance, as well. Too bad he didn't just mandate it from the beginning - just think how many lives could have been saved.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

56. Yeah, that's a better description.

The percentage of new infections from testing has at least been decreasing lately, but it has been gradual.

I hope we don't have a bunch of schools that reopen other than online, wiping out any improvement. I've been disturbed to see the local news showing high school sports teams practicing, such as for football, so my guess is that we'll be trending upward yet again!

[Ms. Toad]

59. I teach 110 students starting Thursday.

Only about 85 of them will be in person, and they are graduate students . . . but a lot of the are not terribly adult, having gone straight thorugh from kindergarten to now starting law school.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

61. Be safe!

Ugh, I wish you didn't have to do that.

At least you have a good grasp of the risks, better than most people.

[Phoenix61]

2. I'm not sure. I want to see the testing graph.

That graph, in and of itself, is meaningless especially with this administration.

[Steelrolled]

4. Yes, I used to think that the infection numbers were not very meaningful due to limited

access to testing. But at least from what I can tell, we now have pretty good access. There are many places near me where I could get a test on demand.

[Phoenix61]

9. It's the backlog at the labs that I'm wondering about. nt

[dawg day]

31. Not near me, and I live in a city

You can pay for one, but to get one for free (as it should be), there's only one place I can find in this city of almost a million-- that is, no fee, no referral, no symptoms needed.

And it's the 4-day to get results type of test.

[Blue_true]

6. Hospitalizations have also been decreasing. Looks real.

Like someone pointed out, looks like mask mandates and closing bars have had a positive impact.

[Phoenix61]

11. Awesome! nt

[wishstar]

5. Testing has been reduced for couple of weeks due to labs backed up and other problems

In many areas of the country testing has run into problems of long waiting times and closures of sites.

In just my NC county which is not one of the larger metros, the drive through testing of 850 tests per week was halted a couple of weeks ago due to inability of labs to keep up with demand and problems with adequate staffing. We are supposed to resume next week but only for those with symptoms or known exposure and reservations/screening will be required in advance. So our numbers are definitely less than they would have been if the testing wasn't halted.

[Ms. Toad]

13. That is an aspect of it -

But just like increased testing was not the entire story as to the upswing, decreased testing is not the entire story to this turn down.

[Ex Lurker]

24. There may be something to the idea that 20% is the herd immunity point NT

[Ms. Toad]

25. I doubt herd immunity plays a role.

What is playing a role is that more and more governors are taking this seriously and implementing limited or broad mask orders. New cases are being reduced because people are wearing masks - as predicted.

[Drahthaardogs]

30. Not at this Ro

We need 80% of population with antibodies for herd immunity.

[Ms. Toad]

8. You are correct.

I was watching it level off - then went back to work and didn't have a chance to confirm it this week. But it looked last week like it had leveled off and was slowing.

BUT - recall that "we" thought that tin early April, as well - and decided to open things wide up. We need to guard against overconfidence that we are over the peak.

AND - I would expect another upturn over the next month as students return to school (particularly college students, to the extent they are returning).

[Buckeye_Democrat]

17. I agree... two steps back after more schools reopen.

[dweller]

32. and Sturgis ...

when those go home, all over, that will spread ..
and yeh, students have just returned to UNC, so town is off limits to me now ...
not that get out much anyway 😠

✌🏼

[Ms. Toad]

35. Yup. n/t

[msongs]

10. this graph has no source or link but it is pretty. hawaii set a record for daily cases today tn

[Steelrolled]

15. You are right, I neglected to add the source, but did just now.

It is the popular worldometers site.

[Miguelito Loveless]

12. The trend started when Trump switched case accounting from the CDC

to HHS. Funny that.

[soothsayer]

16. Right. If we had any confidence in the numbers it would be different

Now, who knows?

[Ms. Toad]

20. Although the timing is suspicious -

He switched a small portion of the reporting - none of which is reflected in that graph. https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf%3C - see page 3-10 for the data that is reported to HHS.

The information is related solely to hospitalization. The data in the graph is new case data (which is far broader than the capacity and utilization data being sent directly to HHS).

[Steelrolled]

21. Fortunately I think the data from the worldometers site

comes directly from the states - not via the CDC nor any Fed Gov agency.

Edit: Fixed my first sentence that said the opposite of what I meant.

[Ms. Toad]

26. Correct. n/t

Last edited Sun Aug 9, 2020, 10:38 AM - Edit history (1)

[Miguelito Loveless]

27. I've read the hospitals had been reporting direct to the CDC

and the states were getting there numbers from CDC so the hospitals didn’t have to make multiple reports to different agencies. Kind of the whole point of central reporting.

[Ms. Toad]

53. Not quite.

The data redirected from the hospitals is a very limited portion of the data, almost none of which shows up in the charts we see, since it has to do with day to day utilization of hospital resources.

Most states work directly with their hospitals to gather that critical, real -time need.

[Miguelito Loveless]

68. I hope you are correct

Since the current admin has every reason distort the data.

[Ms. Toad]

71. Here's the directive.

https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf%3C

It's all about hospital capacity, with a limited section on how to handle in-hospital testing that gets reported to the CDC through the state.

[ProfessorGAC]

58. Directly From County Boards Of Health

It's kind of a pain at Worldometer, but if you root around, you'll find their methodology.
Just like Johns-Hopkins, NIH, IHME, they get their numbers at the county level.

[OrlandoDem2]

14. 60K cases/day is nothing to cheer. We are still on fire and

need new leadership!

[Miguelito Loveless]

29. We had hit 77K before Trump

switched reporting requirements to a no bid, private contractor working for HHS.

[Ms. Toad]

54. Check your facts about what data is being reported to HHS

Nothing in that chart, or in the data most of us see on a daily basis is now going to the HHS.

[Miguelito Loveless]

67. My source is this NPR story,

and similar stories in NYT and The Guardian.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/31/897429054/covid-19-hospital-data-system-that-bypasses-cdc-plagued-by-delays-inaccuracies

[Ms. Toad]

70. I didn't say check the source, I said check the facts. What data is going directly to HHS?

Is it new cases (the data in the graph in the OP - and the 77,000 per day you suggest is linked to the change) and deaths (another main data set tracked)?

From the article you posted:

Hospitals are supposed to report daily to the federal government how many beds they have, the number occupied and the availability of intensive care beds. Under the new system, the Department of Health and Human Services aggregates the information at a state level and shares a daily spreadsheet of the information that has been reported — gaps and all.

. . .


The established system was disrupted by a memo dated July 10, issued to hospitals by HHS. In the memo, HHS took the unusual step of instructing hospitals to stop reporting the capacity data to CDC and to instead use a reporting platform developed recently by private contractor TeleTracking. As NPR has reported, the details of how the contract was awarded to TeleTracking are unclear.

Hospitals received only a few days notice of the change and scrambled to adapt.

Here is the data that is now being reported to HHS directly. If you review it, you'll find it has no direct connection to tracking the number of new cases, or deaths daily.

The only indirect connection is related to aggregate, in-house hospita testing - and even that data remains ultimatdly under the control of the CDC (ater being reported to the state health departments):

Under the new guidance, testing data should be sent to state health departments, which will then deidentify the data and report them to the CDC. This new guidance is effective August 1, 2020.

It is critical to read beyond the alarming headline, and discern exactly what was changed by the order before assuming the change (in reporting hospital capacity) is somehow responsible for the downturn in new cases.

[Miguelito Loveless]

73. Thank you for taking the time

to set me straight. The only excuse I offer is that bad news is coming these days like from a fire hose. It has such a enraging/depressing effect that I am losing details.

[Ms. Toad]

77. I was a little cranky, since I've posted this same information several times today

Sorry.

I was incredibly suspicious at the time - partly because headline writers like inflammatory headlines. Then tracked down the actual directive. It's still bad, but it doesn't impact what most people think of as the important stats. And you're right about the fire hose.

[Lokee11]

18. Numbers started going to HHS first

FDT!!!

[Ms. Toad]

28. Very few numbers are going to HHS - and they are not the numbers reflected in this graph.

Those numbers have to do with utilization of hospital resources - not new cases.

https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf%3C

[msongs]

19. the alll powerful trump has saved us just intime for the election nt

[Buckeye_Democrat]

22. Lol, he might TRY to take credit.

That idiot never mandated masks or anything else that would be helpful. He's still pushing for schools to reopen too, I presume.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

23. that would be great if it holds. maybe now that shit got real in red states

more of the country is doing the right thing with mask wearing, social distancing and other measures.

But as someone pointed out...we have a long ways to go. the daily deaths are likely to surge again in next f e days as well

[LisaL]

33. Even if it is real (and not due to reduced testing) I doubt it will hold.

Children are going to go to schools soon. That should spread a lot more covid around.

[Wednesdays]

34. Go tRump, go!

[rockfordfile]

74. wtf are you posting? it's because of trump and the gop that the virus have killed many Americans

[beachbumbob]

36. in many states, its going up. Weekend reporting is always flawed any way

[Steelrolled]

44. You are right about weekend reporting.

That is why I always do a 7 day average. In other words, every point on the graph represents the average of the last seven days.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

64. but this is 7 day moving average which should smooth thos kinds of variations

[dweller]

37. also i just recalled

the CDC released projections yesterday? that said deaths would reach
300k by Nov/Dec ?

i lay awake most of the nite with speculation wracking my brain, wondering where they thought it was coming from, addition of flu season? and what of those with lingering conditions after surviving? are they included if they die
from them?
CDC projecting double the death count by year's end 🙁

✌🏼

[GulfCoast66]

38. I'm not surprised if that is the case in Florida.

In my area for the past 3 weeks I’ve finally seen almost universal mask usage. Even last spring in the lock down I would guess mask use at Publix was 50/50 or slightly better. Now it is pretty much 100%. And our bars have been re-closed for a month or more.

So I would certainly expect an improvement.

But I look for DeSantis to reopen too early again.

[Steelrolled]

39. Florida looking pretty good

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

[GulfCoast66]

43. Not sure I would say good. But definitely improving.

Because by now most people know someone who has had it or died from it.

Sad that’s what it took.

But I’m still concerned we will make the same mistake we made in May. We had a handle on it but cut things wide open.

[beachbumbob]

49. problem is, DeSantis has done all he can to interfere with COVID data and recently has

ordered county health directors to NOT report COVID info concerning schools, students and teachers. This is #1 state that I believe nothing

[LisaL]

51. They stopped testing when that tropical storm began to approach.

Of course if you don't test, you have no cases. Just like Trump said.

[GulfCoast66]

62. Only state sites. County and private ones remained open.

Not saying we are out of the woods by any means. But the percentage of mask wears is the highest yet. Way better than in May.

If we truly believe masks help, which science has proven, there is no reason our numbers should not come down.

This has nothing to do with DeSantis. But people now know someone affected by the virus.

I’m still furloughed but many of my guys are back to work. Just this very morning I ran into one of my favorites shopping at a small farm store we buy local eggs and meat at. Have no idea about his politics but I would guess conservative. He told me 2 of his family members have died of it. It was good seeing him. Told me how much the team misses me.

[rockfordfile]

76. Really? who is he voting for?

[GulfCoast66]

78. Could not tell you.

We do not talk politics at work. Of course you can’t work closely with a group of 30 people for 5 years and not pick things up. I have no doubt my employees know I’m a democrat but I have never once overtly mentioned that fact at work.

The guy I ran into is probably the most intelligent member of my team. Myself included! But he pretty quiet.

My team are skilled technicians, ironically all male now. The 2 females that were on the team when I took it over have now been promoted into leadership roles in other departments. When I took over I began talking about what it means to be a professional at work. I’ve worked hard on building and maintaining a professional department for 5 years. Open talking about politics or any contentious issue does not promote professionalism.

[rockfordfile]

75. Nope Florida is really messed up. It's desantis and trump's fault

[GulfCoast66]

79. It's messed up. But starting to improve.

We finally have near universal mask use in the Orlando area and in my part of Lake county. As we would all expect, more masks means decreasing cases.

Now get with me 3 weeks after schools reopen for in class teaching. I’m afraid we will go right back to the numbers we were seeing 2 weeks ago.

[Blue_true]

60. I am seeing about the same thing when shopping. There is one or two outliers

not wearing a mask in Publix or Walmart, they look like the idiots that they are. Even with those fools, we should be able to do a little more than tread water against covid19.

[fishwax]

42. Hospitalizations are falling too, though still quite high

https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily

They jumped up above 50k on July 10 (for the first time since May 7) and wound up almost topping 60k, but today they are almost down to 50k again.

[PTWB]

55. Things are going to get worse again.

Schools will be opening in a couple weeks and then we can expect major spikes by mid-September as students spread Covid to their parents and grandparents. Expect a spike in deaths again in mid-October.

[JCMach1]

57. The new issue is infection rate number of cases are down

In Texas, but positive infection rate is up.

It's shifting to more rural areas with little health resources and sicker/older people

[herding cats]

69. That's due to many people not getting tested.

Let's face it, in many places here the wait times to be tested (6-8 hours in a car in the heat of summer?) and the insanely slow return on results [5-7 days) are a nuisance and aren't worth it unless you're really sick and scared.

Thus, the fact we have something like a 27% positivity rate on our tests (were #1 in the US) in Texas.

[flying_wahini]

63. Federal funding for testing dried up* so not as much testing and results available.

* Trump admin stopped it.

[tavernier]

65. We were down in the Keys all last week, now spiking again.

Brought to us by lobster mini season right within the 5-15 day infection time. We tried to stop it but obviously health wasn’t a priority for our state government that sets those rules. Hoping it will go back down now.

[Demsrule86]

72. It is up in the mid west and I would not trust the numbers with data not being sent to

the CDC but NIH with Trumpers in charge.