538 Election predictor is live, Biden at 71%

[Johnny2X2X]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Can change quickly, but that's pretty solid. He's fine tuned it since 2016.

[Blecht]

1. 29% is way too large

I wouldn't feel very good leaving a doctor's office if I was told that I had a 29% chance of surviving.

That's where the country is at -- losing to Trump is not an option. He must lose if we are to still have a country.

GOTV

[USALiberal]

3. Forgetting the 2016 predictions? nt

[Blecht]

6. Nope

In fact, that's my point.

Sorry I didn't make it clear.

[BGBD]

10. You have to keep in mind...

That Silvers prediction includes a LOT of uncertainty coded into the model. With that being the case, you aren't going to see numbers in the 80s and 90s as easily in this one.

[bigtree]

2. same 538 percentage Hillary had on Election Day 2016

Link to tweet

[USALiberal]

5. That is why we need to not take lead for granted! nt

[Initech]

4. I want Biden to crush Trump in the biggest landslide possible!

Go Joe!!!

[Wounded Bear]

7. I want 30-35 blue states. I want 400 EC votes...

I'm greedy like that.

Not to mention that a 'slide like that would almost guarantee flipping the Senate.

[Initech]

9. Same! Seeing Moscow Mitch demoted too would make it even sweeter!

[PatSeg]

20. Oh, I agree

No squeaker election, a big blue landslide. I need the reassurance that our country hasn't completely lost its mind and President Biden needs a mandate to fix the mess Trump is leaving. Also, with a landslide, the rest of the world will see that the U.S. hasn't jumped the shark. It will help bring in a new and better era for everyone.

[BannonsLiver]

8. Looks cool, but it's hard to be a fan of Silver

A lot of people beef about him for 2016 but my problem with him is that he never really ever “says” anything because every statement he makes also comes with 4 or 5 qualifiers that completely muddle whatever point he’s trying to make. His Twitter acct is a greAt example. But I’ll check out his model because it’s interesting.

[USALiberal]

12. Well, show us your model! nt

[edhopper]

11. Does he account for

election fraud, theft and suppression by the GOP?

[RhodeIslandOne]

14. He made a statement Sunday that this depends on all the votes being counted fairly.

[greenjar_01]

13. Can we get a rule

to never post this fucking thing ever?

Friendly amendment.

[helpisontheway]

15. Not getting mixed up with this one again! I remember 2016..for my sanity I willavoid this one. Nt

[demmiblue]

16. ...

[Johnny2X2X]

17. His model must have changed

Biden is far out polling Hillary right now vs when the election happened in 2016 both nationally and in the states.

[jcgoldie]

19. The election is 3 months out

That adds a lot of uncertainty. If Biden is polling this well by November then I would imagine the percentage will be much higher.

[Johnny2X2X]

21. Ah yes, thanks

I forgot about that aspect. If the election were tomorrow, Biden would probably be at 99%.

[malaise]

18. Will not change - will be 90% by election day

CoronaVote them the fuck out! Humiliate them!

[peggysue2]

22. Whoosh!

That being said, we need to remember 2016 when everyone EXPECTED Hillary Clinton to take the WH and run away with the election. It's all about the VOTES, not the predictions regardless of how favorable. The bigger the turnout, the harder it will be for these assholes to cheat, shave the corners, reject votes and voters for ridiculous, unfounded reasons.

We need to be prepared and ready to legally pounce on any and all nefarious actions. But our biggest responsibility?

Vote, Vote, Vote.

Joe Biden gave the campaign a huge boost with his choice of Kamala Harris yesterday. We need to take that electric moment and steer it right into Election Day. That's how we win, save ourselves and save the country.

We can do this!