Get the picture? A Sea of Blue.

[Honeycombe8]

A rolling average.

POLL...................................DATE ........VOTERS..MOE............OB..ROM..............RESULTS

RCP Average........................9/11 - 9/20.....--...........--.............48.6..44.7............[font color=blue]Obama +3.9[font color=black]

Rasmussen Tracking.............9/18 - 9/20 1500 LV 3............46 45..........[font color=blue]Obama +1[font color=black]
National Journal...................9/15 - 9/19 1055 LV 3............50 43..........[font color=blue]Obama +7[font color=black]
Gallup Tracking....................9/14 - 9/20 3050 RV 2............47 47..........Tie
Associated Press/GfK............9/13 - 9/17 807 LV 4.3.........47 46..........[font color=blue]Obama +1[font color=black]
Reason-Rupe.......................9/13 - 9/17 787 LV 4.3.........52 45..........[font color=blue]Obama +7[font color=black]
Hartford Courant/UConn........9/11 - 9/18 1186 LV 3............46 43.........[font color=blue].Obama +3[font color=black]
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun.9/13 - 9/16 1344 LV 2.7.........48 45..........[font color=blue]Obama +3[font color=black]
Pew Research.......................9/12 - 9/16 2268 LV 2.4.........51 43..........[font color=blue]Obama +8[font color=black]
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl..........9/12 - 9/16 736 LV 3.6.........50 45..........[font color=blue]Obama +5[font color=black]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Schwing!

[Ilsa]

1. It's very important to note that RMoney isn't

leading in any polls, except some state polls, but those are getting slimmer.

[reformist2]

2. I wish Gallup's numbers were better... they have such a prestigious name.

[Cirque du So-What]

3. They've squandered their prestige

by becoming the perpetual outlier. I'm far from an expert in polling methodology, but from my perspective, they're doing it wrong.

[Honeycombe8]

7. I agree. But then, Gallup is REGISTERED voters, not likely voters.

My understanding is that likely voter polling is more reflective of election results. Which makes sense.

Still, Obama has been holding steady at 46 or 47 for many months. Can't seem to break 50 except for the convention bounce.

Romney, OTOH, keeps going up and down a couple of points. (In June Romney was 47, then was 45, 45 again, then 46, then 47, then 43, then 47.)

It is Romney going up and down that affects who is on top, for the most part. It's not Obama dropping.

I'd like to see Obama pop up on that poll, though.

[ananda]

4. Take out Rasmussen and Gallup for bias ..

.. and Obama leads by over 5 points.

[aletier_v]

5. Freepers believe Romney could be "ahead by as much as" 10 points

From FR about forty minutes ago -

"The mainstream media are rigging the polls. No headliner there, but just how bad is it? It could mean that Romney has as much as a double-digit lead of 54-44 in Realityville"


That's some serious denial.

[reformist2]

11. LOL!

[DCBob]

6. National polling is so misleading.

I really dont see any point in doing it at this stage. It should all be state by state.

[Honeycombe8]

8. It does show a picture. Check these polls out before the Bush-Kerry 2004 election.

Bush won 51% to 48% approximately.

The NBC/WSJ polls at end:
September (Sept.17-19): Bush 48%, Kerry 45%, Nader 2%
Mid October (Oct.16-18): Bush 48%, Kerry 46%, Nader 2%
Late October (Oct.29-31): Bush 48%, Kerry 47%, Nader 1%

Every picture tells a story, I think.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Because The EC Vote, More Or Less, Follows The Pop Vote

The larger the popular vote advantage gets the less likely the pop vote and the EC vote will diverge.

[morningfog]

10. State by state looks even better. And the states follow the national trend.

A plus 2 nationally will usually translate to a bump on the state level, too.

[doc03]

12. Every day I hear those polls where Obama is way ahead

and the same day I will hear a report that says it's a virtual dead heat, I don't know what to believe.

[lunatica]

13. Common sense should tell you

It's a real D'oh thing. Which one is running the perfect campaign and which one is chewing his foot?

And who do you think the vast majority of American people prefer as President?

Like Clinton says, it's Arithmetic.

edited to correct sentence

[doc03]

16. You see I live in eastern Ohio where probably 2 out of 3

voters are registered Democrats. Yet on every other lawn or vehicle there is a sign saying "Stop the War on Coal, Fire Obama or a NRA sticker. The truth is that is just their excuse for not voting for a black man. It's kind of hard to judge the election when you are surrounded by Republicans, racist Democrats.

[Honeycombe8]

18. The poll I posted is an average of a bunch of nat'l polls.

That gives you a fairly accurate picture of the nation's view of things. Pay more attention to "likely" voters than registered voters, many of whom will not vote.

If the person saying it's a dead heat identifies only one poll, that's the one who's losing.

But it is close. No doubt about it.

That's why I try to get the full picture. Look at realclearpolitics. It gives results of most of the polls, both nationally AND by state. AND gives an electoral vote prediction, based on the polls. AND gives the gambling odds of who will win. It's stats change daily.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

National: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Ohio: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

Other battleground state polling: (on rt side of upper screen) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

The Electoral Vote predicion currently stands at 247 Obama, 191 Romney. (270 needed to win) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

[Zorra]

14. Encouraging, but no reason to relax.

We not only need to keep the pressure on, we need to turn it up a notch. We're hot right now, and we need to capitalize on the momentum, and never lose it.

Even simple, educated, word of mouth campaigning at every reasonable opportunity that presents itself in our everyday lives helps.

Even if you only get one vote for our side out of it, it's worth it.

[porphyrian]

15. . n/t

[Mad_Dem_X]

17. I still can't believe it's that close.

I feel like Obama should be way ahead. There are a lot of stupid and misinformed people out there.