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Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:06 PM

Biden's Voters Appear Far More Likely To Vote By Mail Than Trump's FiveThirtyEight

Last edited Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:54 PM - Edit history (2)

... Democrats are much likelier than Republicans to say they will vote by mail — which makes sense given that Democrats also tend to be more supportive of mail voting. (By contrast, the Republican standard bearer, President Trump, has repeatedly and inaccurately assailed mail voting as ripe for fraud.)

According to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 30 percent of registered voters said they planned to vote by mail, and 43 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. But among Trump supporters, only 11 percent said they planned to vote by mail, and 66 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. Among Joe Biden backers, 47 percent said they planned to vote by mail, while only 26 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. (The share who said they would vote early in person was consistently 20-21 percent among all three groups: Trump supporters, Biden supporters and voters overall.)

If this holds, it would mean votes cast on Election Day would skew heavily toward Trump, and votes cast by mail would skew heavily toward Biden. This has serious implications for … well, democracy. First, Trump could argue the mail ballots (which, remember, could account for most of Biden’s votes) were fraudulent and thus should not be counted. Although it’s unlikely they’d actually be thrown out, this would damage the credibility of the election in the eyes of many Trump supporters. Second, it could mean the first votes counted on election night will be disproportionately good for Trump, who might claim victory based on incomplete returns. It might not be until days later, after a good chunk of the Democratic-leaning mail vote is counted, that Biden pulls ahead.


More at FIVETHIRTYEIGHT

I'm voting early and in person - I want to see my vote counted.

Adding what DrunkenIrishman pointed out below: "... most states begin counting mail-in ballots first, not last. If a bulk of mail-in ballots are received prior to election day (which they should be), they will be counted first and then the same-day ballots will be counted."

Good information! Regardless, vote early and be sure your vote is counted.

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

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Reply Biden's Voters Appear Far More Likely To Vote By Mail Than Trump's FiveThirtyEight (Original post)
mzmolly Aug 2020 OP
LisaL Aug 2020 #1
Wounded Bear Aug 2020 #7
Iliyah Aug 2020 #2
mzmolly Aug 2020 #13
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #3
LisaL Aug 2020 #6
Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #8
mzmolly Aug 2020 #17
LisaL Aug 2020 #22
Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #83
mzmolly Aug 2020 #85
Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #90
mzmolly Aug 2020 #93
Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #98
mzmolly Aug 2020 #101
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #12
mzmolly Aug 2020 #16
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #28
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #31
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #41
LisaL Aug 2020 #43
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #67
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #47
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #52
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #53
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #58
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #60
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #66
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #70
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #71
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #75
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #80
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #82
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #96
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #109
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #110
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #112
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #115
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #118
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #121
mzmolly Aug 2020 #76
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #81
mzmolly Aug 2020 #84
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #111
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #113
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #114
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #116
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #117
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #120
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #26
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #39
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #49
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #55
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #59
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #65
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #69
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #72
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #74
PTWB Aug 2020 #99
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #108
LisaL Aug 2020 #29
qazplm135 Aug 2020 #51
mzmolly Aug 2020 #91
mzmolly Aug 2020 #14
mzmolly Aug 2020 #18
LisaL Aug 2020 #24
mzmolly Aug 2020 #32
LisaL Aug 2020 #34
mzmolly Aug 2020 #38
Wounded Bear Aug 2020 #4
SheltieLover Aug 2020 #5
Vinca Aug 2020 #9
mucifer Aug 2020 #15
Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #10
mzmolly Aug 2020 #19
progressive nobody Aug 2020 #11
helpisontheway Aug 2020 #20
mzmolly Aug 2020 #21
LisaL Aug 2020 #23
mzmolly Aug 2020 #25
LisaL Aug 2020 #30
mzmolly Aug 2020 #36
LisaL Aug 2020 #42
mzmolly Aug 2020 #48
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #35
mzmolly Aug 2020 #40
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #56
mzmolly Aug 2020 #62
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #68
mzmolly Aug 2020 #73
Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #77
mzmolly Aug 2020 #78
Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #92
mzmolly Aug 2020 #94
helpisontheway Aug 2020 #46
mzmolly Aug 2020 #50
helpisontheway Aug 2020 #27
LisaL Aug 2020 #33
Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #37
mzmolly Aug 2020 #44
helpisontheway Aug 2020 #45
mzmolly Aug 2020 #57
mzmolly Aug 2020 #54
LisaL Aug 2020 #61
mzmolly Aug 2020 #64
JennyMominFL Aug 2020 #63
Blue_true Aug 2020 #123
GusFring Aug 2020 #79
mzmolly Aug 2020 #86
LisaL Aug 2020 #87
mzmolly Aug 2020 #88
LisaL Aug 2020 #89
mzmolly Aug 2020 #95
LisaL Aug 2020 #97
mzmolly Aug 2020 #102
LisaL Aug 2020 #104
mzmolly Aug 2020 #105
LisaL Aug 2020 #106
mzmolly Aug 2020 #107
gulliver Aug 2020 #100
mzmolly Aug 2020 #103
MerryBlooms Aug 2020 #119
mzmolly Aug 2020 #122
MerryBlooms Aug 2020 #124

Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:10 PM

1. Trump supporters won't believe credibility of the election if their idol doesn't win, regardless

of how many votes arrived by mail. And it sounds like here mail in ballots that arrive before the election will be counted first. Ballots that arrive before the election will be scanned-they just can't release the results.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #1)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:13 PM

7. Sad but true...

All of this is being pre-loaded to make election day and shortly thereafter look like a clusterfuck.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:10 PM

2. And that is why shithole is destroying USPS . .

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Response to Iliyah (Reply #2)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:40 PM

13. Right.

The election interference is playing out before our eyes.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:11 PM

3. The last portion you bolded is patently wrong.

It's surprising that 538 would even print that. The exact opposite of what they say is true - as most states begin counting mail-in ballots first, not last. If a bulk of mail-in ballots are received prior to election day (which they should be), they will be counted first and then the same-day ballots will be counted.

Literally the opposite of that fear will unfold: Biden will take a very big early lead in a lot of states as the same-day vote begins to trickle in, which may be delayed by how close it actually turns out to be.

Sometimes I wonder if people even do research before they fearmonger.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #3)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:12 PM

6. Exactly.

Here, ballots that arrive before the election will be counted first. Results can't be released, but ballots will already be scanned as they arrive.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #3)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:14 PM

8. 538 says and does a lot of things that are not correct. He wants a horse race, just like the media

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #8)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:49 PM

17. I think he made good points, regardless.

Trump isn't slowing the mail for no reason. He is interfering in the election.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #17)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:01 PM

22. We don't need him to tell us that.

NT

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #17)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:06 PM

83. I get that, all the same silver just like trump is wanting to cast doubt on the election

Dotard has no ability to demand that ballots be thrown out or to call for ballot counting to be stopped. A legal ballot that arrived on time will be counted
As mentioned further down Biden has amassed a team of 600 attorneys to deal with his shit.

This is just like what silver did in the dem primary. He was the first pollster to say sanders had it in the bag regardless of what the stats showed. Which were, the youth vote touted by sanders was a myth, his voter totals had dropped by 25% from 16. Not a winning strategy..but yet silver said so, and others followed

So no he may have made some points, but his main point is to stir shit!!

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #83)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:15 PM

85. Agree.

He did make good points. But at times he talks out of his hinder in order to draw attention.

I'm not impressed by the team of lawyers as I hear this in every election. I'm glad Biden is aware and prepared, but on some level I see Trumps plan in progress.

1. Make COVID a myth.
2. Encourage his voters to the polls - because not to worry.
3. Jack with the USPS so (responsible) Biden voters are disenfranchised.
4. Challenge mail in ballots. (Remember Florida? The vote count was stopped.)

Trump will claim mail in ballots can't be trusted and are largely fraudulent. I don't want to lose the election night perception battle.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #85)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:40 PM

90. The situation in FL was entirely different!

Gore had conceded
He then asked for a recount in FL which he was within his rights
The hanging chad issue was the winner for Bush because it was questionable as to who the individual had cast their vote for

The president even this one has NO power to call for the counting of ballots to stop. A legal ballot is a legal ballot and if it arrived on time it will be counted.

I get what you are saying, about his shenanigans but it doesn’t do any good to try and imagine every dark scenario as if we have no power. It is counter productive

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #90)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:46 PM

93. Not entirely different.

It was a blueprint for theft.

I'm not imagining a scenario with no power. I'm trying to understand the Trump game plan. Obviously, they have one that involves negating mail in ballots.

I didn't say the President can stop a vote count, but he can challenge legitimate ballots. Then what?

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #93)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:55 PM

98. How can he challenge legitimate ballots...he can't

Unless there’s a legitimate recount called for

Requests for recounts are permitted in 43 states, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Some of those states require the margin between candidates to be below a certain threshold. Which is usually razor thin

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #98)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 05:10 PM

101. It depends on the state, it seems.

http://www.bazelon.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/2016_Voter-Challenge-Statutes-by-State.pdf

I put nothing past Trump. He will throw everything he can at the wall to create chaos. I'm acknowledging that given what I've witnessed from him. Also, those close to him have said the same.

I'm preparing, not trying to instill unfounded fears.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #3)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:39 PM

12. most states

but not some key states, like the big three midwestern states we all know and love.

You also will have networks reporting on exit polls when the polls close which will advantage Trump. So there is some validity to what they are saying,and it is what Trump is going to do. But it's also unlikely to work very well, particularly when states like Florida are so effective in counting vote by mail same night...and if Biden wins Florida, it's over.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #16)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:08 PM

28. so here is the key state info

AZ: Counts up to 14 days before...so should be no issues figuring out who won unless a lot of people vote late.
FL: election day, but known to count fast, we should know election night.
GA: 7am on election day...so again we might know on election night
MI: Not til Election day...this is a state we may see Trump winning in initial counts
NH: On election day...ditto
NC: Two weeks prior to election day, so we may know NC on election night
OH: Can be scanned (counted) prior to election day, again we may know OH on election night
PA: 7am on election day...so again we might know on election night
TX: Polls open on election day but if more than 100K can start count early...we may know TX on election night
WI: After polls open, we may know on election night


So to me, the green states that start early and give us the best chance of having an answer:

AZ
NC
OH
TX (because the larger places can start early)
FL (because historically they count mail in votes quickly)

The yellow/caution states that may not know election night:

PA
WI
MI
GA
NH

If you wanna throw in ME, they don't start counting til the polls close so good luck with that. Same with MN although ballots can be added to a ballot box so maybe not.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #28)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:09 PM

31. I think PA & WI starting at 7am is a huge advantage for Biden...

They'll have those votes processed, and potentially counted, by the time the polls close.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #31)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:15 PM

41. then why are Dem officials in both of those states

pleading for legislation to start earlier for fear they won't be able to complete it on election night?

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #41)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:16 PM

43. Because they expect a lot of ballots?

NT

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Response to LisaL (Reply #43)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:32 PM

67. lol

I can only chuckle and shake my head at this point.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #41)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:17 PM

47. Why not?

Safer than not - right?

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #52)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:22 PM

53. I did. I ask again, why not?

The article in the OP is incorrect. I am correct.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #53)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:24 PM

58. lol the article I listed is by PA officials

who does this for a living.

I'm just going to go ahead and listen to them, instead of you.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #58)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:25 PM

60. No where in the article does it say mail-in ballots will be counted last.

Can you please show me where that is in the article?


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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #60)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:31 PM

66. FFS

I didn't say counted last, I said that the time it would take to count them is SO long, that it would take longer than election night to finish.

You know, a marathon can start before a 100 yard dash and still end up taking a long longer to complete right?

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #66)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:37 PM

70. You are replying to posts specifically about a point made in the OP.

...and that point is that the initial votes counted will be in-person, same day voting and will heavily favor Trump, therefore giving him a perceived lead, maybe even a large lead, before mail-in ballots are finally counted. That's what we are discussing. You shoehorning in other points is irrelevant and not on topic and has nothing to do with what we're discussing.

I am discussing a point in the article. Most states will start counting mail-in ballots hours before they start counting same-day votes. That is absolutely an advantage to Biden.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #70)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:39 PM

71. the initial votes to be REPORTED

will heavily favor Trump. The fact that they will count and thus report MORE of the same day voting in the same time period than the mail in voting is not remotely "irrelevant."

You are either out of stubbornness or I don't want to hear any bad news covering my ears and going nyahnyahnyah pretending that how mail in ballots are counted and how long it takes to count them will be like previous elections when the people who actually do this for a living are saying, nope, it won't be.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #71)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:48 PM

75. This is not true.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #75)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:57 PM

80. lol

right, all those folks in PA who saying exactly that are liars.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #80)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:04 PM

82. No. You're misquoting your own article.

Your own article states that they believe a vast number of the ballots will be counted on election day:


"We'll have significant numbers on election night, but we won't be done unless the law changes," McClure, the county executive, says.


Nothing in that article suggests the initial vote will favor Trump. This is something you're incorrectly interpreting.

IF the election is as close as it was in 2016, absolutely things might be delayed.

But if Biden wins PA by a margin similar to Obama in 2012, that won't be the case. He'll have an early lead, as your article states 'significant number on election night' and no amount of Trump claiming he won will work because he'll be trailing.

IF the election is as close as it was in 2016, we're in trouble regardless.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #82)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:52 PM

96. there are 50 elections

the election can "not be close" and also "be close in BG states."

PA is one of those states. PA is one of the states that have SAID they cannot handle the volume. Substantial can mean 60 percent.
60 percent might not be NEARLY enough to determine a winner EVEN if they favor Biden given the same day voting favoring Trump.

Clearly you don't follow CA elections. Where election night sees the Republican ahead by several points, and then days later it flips to the Dem winning by an equal or larger margin. Because that's how long it takes them to count all the votes.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #96)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 06:38 PM

109. This is not correct.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #109)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 06:45 PM

110. Lol

I said like ten things, but sure pal.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #110)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 06:55 PM

112. Sure.

You've gone all over the map. Your initial claim was that PA officials reported the initial returns would show Trump ahead - they did not. In fact, their own wording from the article you pushed says that a significant amount of the mail-in ballots will be counted on the day of the election. If Biden wins the state by his current polling average, it's not hard to see that those significant amount of ballots will be counted and give him a lead even with same-day going to Trump. That only factors into things if, like in 2016, PA comes down to less than 1% or so - and if that's the case, we're likely in bigger trouble than waiting to see the final results.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #112)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 07:00 PM

115. Lol first that's a lie

I never said PA officials say they will report Trump ahead. Why you keep pushing that lie I don't know but I'm this close to alerting on you for it.

I said they would not know the results by the end of the night. I also said that it was logical to assume that same day voting will favor Trump, and that thus because mail in voting is expected to be FIFTEEN times or more as large, counting could take a lot longer, and since mail in voting skews Biden, there could be the EXACT thing we see in other heavy mail in states like California where Republicans lead on election night due to same day voting and then mail in votes switch it to the Dem the next day or later.

I'm done talking to you so long as you keep lying about what I've said.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #115)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 07:28 PM

118. I am done. You clearly are dishonest.

Your own quote:

the initial votes to be REPORTED will heavily favor Trump.


Heavily favor Trump but somehow he won't show as being ahead in the initial reporting? lmao now you're just spinning in the wind.

This conversation is over. You clearly can't have an honest dialogue. Don't bother responding because I won't read it - or reply to it.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #118)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 07:38 PM

121. are you incapable of basic English understanding?

My quote doesn't say jack about PA has said Trump will lead.

Wow, the first part of your screenname sure fits doesn't it.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #28)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:48 PM

76. Thank you!

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #76)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:59 PM

81. here's the deal

you have a few folks on here who think anything that isn't sunshine and puppies is fearmongering or not true.

Being forearmed and being forewarned is not the same thing as being negative, fearmongering, or even not being positive.

If you know the other side has knives, saying, hey maybe we need to be ready for this when we go kick their ass is nothing but prudent.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #81)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:08 PM

84. Fully agree.

Tough to believe many of us lived through Florida and 2016.

Trumps plan to steal the election is playing out before us. If we are proactive and aware we can take action to prevent it.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #81)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 06:47 PM

111. No. You've got people holding you accountable to your misinterpretation.

You stated PA had admitted Trump would lead in the initial returns. There is no such claim. In fact, they claimed a good amount of their mail-in ballots should be counted on election day. If that's the case, and Biden performs significantly well there, the same-day voting might not prove to be an issue, especially if Biden wins PA by his current polling average (5 points).

The entire point of this started because the article in the OP claimed the initial results would show Trump up and therefore he could claim victory. Most states begin counting their mail-in ballots days before or, in the case of PA, several hours before polls close (7am). There is no evidence that this means Trump will take an early lead and therefore be able to drive the narrative. To state such a claim is incorrect and absolutely fearmongering.

This isn't about forewarning people. It's about spreading misinformation.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #111)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 06:56 PM

113. Lol

I stated that the argument that is made by 538 is supported by PA and other states saying they won't be able to count vote by mail.quickly, I did not remotely say PA "said" Trump would have an early lead.

They didn't say good amount they said substantial which can mean half or 60 percent or who freaking knows but it could easily still not be enough to determine who won or that Biden is in the lead on election night.

You know when you have to twist and mangle what has been said to create your point it's a pretty poor point.

Yes, the initial results might show Trump ahead and yes Trump might declare victory. To deny those two possibilities, particularly the second is delusional. The point of laying out WHY those two things don't mean much is to address those who might be afraid of such an outcome that this is likely a temporary result until the blue shift (which is literally the term for this result it happens so often) results in a Biden win.

And the ironic thing is on election night, as this is happening, that's EXACTLY what you are going to be saying. But for whatever reason the idea that this is going to be anything other than a blowout disengages your logic circuits.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #113)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 06:59 PM

114. I showed you the own quote from your article where they said a significant amount will be counted.

A significant amount is likely enough to keep Biden ahead of Trump throughout the election returns unless we're looking at a margin of less than 1% or so. If that's the case, we're likely not winning the election anyway.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #114)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 07:01 PM

116. Show me the quote

Where I said PA said Trump would be ahead.

You've claimed it twice now so show it.

The rest is simply your inability or stubbornness to understand that.substantial does not mean nearly all.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #116)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 07:26 PM

117. Sure.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13993698

the initial votes to be REPORTED will heavily favor Trump.


Don't get cute with terms. Heavily favor Trump indicates you believe the initial reporting will show him ahead.

The votes that will be reported will be the mail-in ballots that have ALREADY been counted, starting at 7am. That is a significant amount of time, hours and hours, between polls opening and closing (13 hours to be exact).

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #117)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 07:37 PM

120. where does it say

I said PA will say that? I said that, I did not say PA will say that.

See you know you are lying right now.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #12)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:07 PM

26. This isn't true, either.

Ohio, for one, counts its early votes (including mail-in ballots) first. Which is why, in 2016, Hillary jumped to a significant lead. Pennsylvania begins counting mail-in ballots at 7am on election day. The results aren't published until polls are closed, but 7am gives 'em a huge advantage to start scanning and counting ballots. Wisconsin, also, starts counting when polls open.

Also, many of these states are moving to count their mail-in ballots early.

Beyond that, exit polls do factor in mail-in voting, so, they would not skew Trump at all.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #26)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:15 PM

39. OH is not one of the big three states I was referencing

PA officials have already said that not starting until 7am on election day is going to make it VERY difficult to count them in time.
I can link to a host of officials from the sec of state to former GOV Tom Ridge. That's why Dems are pushing for legislation to change the date.

Similar situation in WI and MI, can't start til the polls open on election day, and both states would like to push that earlier to guarantee being able to report results on election night.

The Dems are "moving" to count early, it remains to be seen in each state whether the Reps will go along with it.

Comparing mail in voting in 2016 to mail in voting in 2020 is comparing a glass of water to Lake Michigan.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #39)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:19 PM

49. The argument in the OP is not true.

This is the extension of the debate.

The argument posted in the OP's article suggests mail-in ballots will be counted last and therefore, same-day, in person voting will be counted first, which could give Trump an advantage. This just isn't true.

The first results that we will see in most these states will be early voting. Unless many Democrats wait until the last second to vote, much of the counting will have been completed. This is a fact.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #49)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:23 PM

55. in order to count mail in ballots

more has to happen than just "counting them"

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/21/893115504/swing-county-u-s-a-prepares-for-unprecedented-influx-of-ballots-by-mail

It's a timely, and multi-step process where counting is the LAST step, and yes, that step is no slower than counting same day ballots, but it's longer, and when they anticipate as in this article FIFTEEN times as many mail in ballots, you can anticipate that it probably will take 15 times as long to count them.

You are operating under the old, just a few percent of early vote, where yeah, they could rattle through them quickly and get them out even before election day voting.

The people who do this for a living are telling you, that's not likely to be the case this time UNLESS the rules change to allow them to count before election day.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #55)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:24 PM

59. Again, the OP article is wrong.

This isn't a debate. You can continue to fearmonger but you are not correct.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #59)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:30 PM

65. lol first of all

IDGAF about the OP article.

I posted actual information from actual election officials in an actual BG state who are telling us they don't think they can count everything up by election night because of the sheer volume (15X or more), and because of the multiple steps involved just to get to the "counting" part.

Your response boils down to...covering your ears and yelling that plain fact "fearmongering."

Second of all, the MORE volume of mail in, the longer it will take, but the more likely it is that these are Biden votes, which is BETTER for us. If we are waiting for tons of mail in vote to be counted late into election night that's actually a GOOD thing for our side because it means it was so much volume. So quite the fucking opposite of "fearmongering."

Third, understanding what the other side is going to try is not fucking "fearmongering" either. Knowing that Trump is going to use the lack of mail-in voting numbers, same day exit polling and voting numbers, and "declare" victory in some states and knowing WHY that's wrong, is also not "Fearmongering" it's being smart.

I get it, you're one of those guys who only want to hear how it's going to be a blow out election night, how it's going to be obvious, and Biden's going to be declaring victory by midnight. Just because others recognize that it's probably going to be tougher to determine in SOME states, and we MAY have to wait until Nov 4th to officially find out that Biden won, doesn't make us "fearmongers."

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #65)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:34 PM

69. I'll be honest. I stopped reading after the IDGAF about the OP article.

So, I will only respond to that because I didn't read anything you wrote below that.

I am talking about the OP article. Nothing more. If you want to talk about something else, that's on you. But it's irrelevant to what I am talking about and I won't continue with that discussion. This discussion is about whether the states will count in-person ballots first, therefore giving the perception that Trump has won, maybe even significantly so, because they wait to count mail-in ballots. This isn't true. It's the exact opposite. That is all. If you want to debate whether it will be a bigger chore to count mail-in ballots this year than four years ago, fine ... but that is not the debate I am having right now.

Thanks.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #69)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:40 PM

72. of course you did

it's more covering your ears.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #72)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:47 PM

74. No. It's staying on topic.

If you want, you're more than welcome to create a new thread pushing your ideas. Why you decided to put them in reply to my message is what's confusing when we're talking two different things.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #74)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 05:05 PM

99. The part you apparently skipped on his post is a claim that the election officials in PA disagree...

With what you are saying. That seems relevant to the discussion, at least to me.

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Response to PTWB (Reply #99)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 06:37 PM

108. They don't disagree at all.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #12)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:08 PM

29. What are the three key Midwestern states we all know and love?

If one of those states is PA, they can start counting mail in ballots at 7 am on election day. Which hardly qualifies as counting them last.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #29)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:20 PM

51. right, so when Penn Dem officials say

"Based on our experience from the primary, we just don't think it's physically possible to count the potential 100,000 mail-in ballots that day."

But because of how time-consuming the process is, a big question remains: On election night, will voters know who is going to be the next president of the United States?
N.J. Election Fraud Case Draws A Trump Tweet But Suggests Safeguards Are Working
2020 Election: Secure Your Vote
N.J. Election Fraud Case Draws A Trump Tweet But Suggests Safeguards Are Working

It's the "million-dollar question," says Boockvar. "I think that Nov. 3, we may not."

Still, they say that without the ability to pre-canvass mail-in ballots ahead of Election Day in November, same-day results are unlikely.

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/21/893115504/swing-county-u-s-a-prepares-for-unprecedented-influx-of-ballots-by-mail

They are what? Exaggerating? Lying?

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #51)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:40 PM

91. I notice you didn't

get a response.

I don't know why people fear information and a plan?

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #3)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:41 PM

14. That's good information!

Thank you! I'll edit my post, accordingly.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #18)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:06 PM

24. Yes, but if you read these rules, a lot of states can start scanning absentee ballots before the

election. They just can not release the results.
But clearly the idea that absentee ballots will be counted last is false.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #24)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:09 PM

32. So slowing down the mail will

have no impact?

Trumps nefarious plan to delay mail and thereby the vote count, is not to be considered?

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #32)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:11 PM

34. How in the world can you conclude that from what I posted?

Did I say anything about slowing the mail?

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Response to LisaL (Reply #34)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:13 PM

38. Read the OP

again.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:11 PM

4. I think this rates kind of high on the "well, d'uh" scale...



I think we all know this. We still have to PLAN OUR VOTES. Make sure that whatever we do, we make it count.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:11 PM

5. Me too - voting early, in person

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:16 PM

9. I'm voting in person come hell or high water.

I think I'd lose sleep worrying my mail-in vote wasn't counted for some reason.

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Response to Vinca (Reply #9)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:47 PM

15. Best way is early voting as early as possible in case you have to quarantine or get covid

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:17 PM

10. If not voting in person early or on Election Day, hand deliver your mail in ballot. Don't risk it

Check with your state or county as to where to drop your ballot. It varies greatly from state to state and county by county

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #10)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:57 PM

19. Exactly!

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:31 PM

11. My husband and I are voting in person day of. Masking up, gloved up wither my voter registration

 

card in hand.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:57 PM

20. I just hate that he could look like the winner for weeks..

Then he could later say it was stolen by a fraudulent process. After someone declares that they are the winner (ala Bush in 2000) it begins to seem inevitable. I don’t want people to get sick but I sure hope everyone that could vote early or in person would do that instead of mail in.

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Response to helpisontheway (Reply #20)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 02:59 PM

21. I hope

that doesn't happen.

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Response to helpisontheway (Reply #20)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:02 PM

23. Again, in my state, mail in ballots that arrive before the election will be counted first.

So please stop repeating things that are false.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #25)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:09 PM

30. So read the freaking rules.

Most states can counting mail in ballots before the election day end.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #30)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:12 PM

36. The rules in my state:

Absentee/Mail Ballot Counting Can Begin - After the polls close on Election Day. Source is the NCSL.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #36)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:15 PM

42. Then if that is your concern, by all means, vote early.

If people are able to vote early, they can certainly do so.
You have to realize that in this election, a lot of people will be voting by mail.
Already absentee ballot requests are trough the roof.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #42)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:18 PM

48. Right and people who vote by mail should follow up

to be sure their votes are counted.

I voted absentee in the primary along with two HH members. Two of our ballots were received and counted, one was not. All were mailed back on the same day.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #25)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:11 PM

35. Most these states, the crucial states, count before polls close.

It's not going to take days and weeks to count most these ballots. We're talking generally hours. Pennsylvania starting counting mail-in ballots at 7am means, by the time polls close, they could have a significant amount of the votes already counted. You could see a situation where half the state has already been counted, though not fully processed, as polls closed.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #35)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:15 PM

40. In Minnesota they start counting

after polls close. I'd hate to see assertions about a winner made, before mail in votes are counted.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #40)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:23 PM

56. I am not worried about that.

If Minnesota is as close as it was in 2016, that likely means so is PA, MI and WI and we probably aren't going to win anyway, even when all votes are counted.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #56)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:26 PM

62. I am.

I live in MN and I don't think Trump will win with the votes counted. If Trump can create the perception of a win in MN/WI and PA, that's a problem on election night.

I'm sure the Biden team will put a comprehensive plan in place to get information to voters. I've got PTSD from 2016, admittedly.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #62)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:32 PM

68. No. I get your point.

My point is that if it's close enough in MN that Trump can somehow create a perception he's won there, then he's likely going to win PA, MI and WI regardless and that likely means he'll win reelection.

The only way Trump can claim he won Minnesota is if the results there are as narrow as they were in 2016. Certainly he couldn't make such a claim if the results were similar to 2012 when Obama won the state by nearly eight-points. And if he did, there wouldn't be much sympathy to that narrative since he'd be down by a sizable margin in the results. His claim only holds water if the results are narrow. If they are narrow, it reasons, as it was in 2016, that he'll over-perform the 2008 and 2012 results in PA, MI and WI. If that's the case, he very well could win those states regardless and Minnesota is irrelevant for the most part as he'd likely win reelection.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #68)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:46 PM

73. Sheesh.

I hope not. Though, if we have far less Trump voters, voting by mail, a perception of a win (or narrow Biden victory) here, could lend credibility to the false notion Trump won anywhere. I do think Minnesota voters are largely motivated and informed, however.

I appreciate you talking me down. I'm trying not to panic!

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #62)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:52 PM

77. Biden has amassed a team of 600 attorneys to deal with any shenanigans.

So, needless to say I think he’s got it covered

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #77)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:54 PM

78. I've

heard that before, sadly.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #78)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:41 PM

92. Again...why so dark? We are not without resources and options

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #92)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:48 PM

94. Did we have resources

and options in 2000 and 2016?

They play dirty. We play by the rules. It's not dark to acknowledge this. It's naive not to.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #25)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:17 PM

46. Thank you for the link. Very informative..nt

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Response to helpisontheway (Reply #46)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:19 PM

50. Thanks for not getting angry with me

for sharing information. Some are downright hostile!

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Response to LisaL (Reply #23)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:07 PM

27. I did not say anything about your state. nt

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Response to helpisontheway (Reply #27)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:10 PM

33. So you just made a general statement even though in most states absentee can be tallied before

the election day?

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Response to LisaL (Reply #33)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:12 PM

37. Even states that delay, still count those ballots first.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin begin counting mail-in ballots as soon as polls open. That means, by the time polls close, a significant amount of those ballots, if not all, will have been counted.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #37)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:17 PM

44. Minnesota

does not, from what I've gleaned. I think it's good to be aware regardless.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #33)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:17 PM

45. Yes..I sure did. I made a general statement. And if you don't like it keep scrolling. Nt

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Response to helpisontheway (Reply #45)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:24 PM

57. : )

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Response to LisaL (Reply #33)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:22 PM

54. Swing states

are key.

For example, both Wisconsin and Minnesota start the count AFTER polls close on election day.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #54)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:26 PM

61. Not true for Wisconsin.

Wisconsin can start counting as soon as polls open on election day.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:28 PM

63. Florida counts mail in

Florida counts mail in ballots first.

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Response to JennyMominFL (Reply #63)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 08:03 PM

123. Yes it does. I voted by mail in the recent primary that was held on Aug 18.

I got my mail in ballot in late June and turned it around in 2 days (filled out and properly signed and sealed).

Sometime in late July, I was looking up something for one of my brothers on the County Registrar’s site. The first thing that I saw was the progression of my mailin ballot, it said Sent Out, Received Back, Accepted, Counted. My vote was counted almost a month before the actual primary voting day.

I plan to vote early in person for the General. I will be able to go online and check the sample ballot before in person early voting starts around October 19. The General ballot typically has a lot of initiatives on it, I want to inform myself of the ones that made the ballot - Legal Recreational Pot may be one of them, I will vote for it, though I prefer decriminalization instead. We approved Legal Medical Weed four years ago and that has been implemented for several years after republican officeholder opposition was overcomed.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:54 PM

79. I am so not concerned about Trumpers accepting Biden having more votes. Just get more electoral

 

Votes and laugh in their face like Trump did us.

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Response to GusFring (Reply #79)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:17 PM

86. I'm concerned about

election night perception, leading to Trump challenging mail in votes.

I hope we have a blow out but He's in the Oval Office, which still baffles me.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #86)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:19 PM

87. I guess you are still ignoring the fact that in most states mail in ballots won't be counted last.

Seriously.
Mail in ballots won't lead to perception that Trump is winning on election night.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #87)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:37 PM

88. I guess you're ignoring

key swing states and the fact that mail in ballots are not always counted in advance? You're also ignoring what others have pointed out.

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/100213993280#post41

Why do you think Trump is effing with the USPS?

I admire your perception of Trump's dedication to democracy. I happen to think it's foolhardy.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #88)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:40 PM

89. Because he doesn't want democrats to vote?

NT

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Response to LisaL (Reply #89)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:50 PM

95. He doesn't care if we vote.

He cares if the votes for Biden are counted. He doesn't want them to be.

I for one, am not playing his game.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #95)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 04:54 PM

97. Seems like you are, since you are now scared to vote by mail, which seems exactly what he wants.

But there is nothing wrong with voting in person if that is what you want. But I don't think you can dictate to others how they are supposed to vote.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #97)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 05:15 PM

102. I think you're the one

dictating here?

Am I suggesting you're afraid to vote early and in person because that's my choice? I live in state with a mask mandate. We are social distancing in election places. So, I'm most comfortable seeing my vote counted and knowing it's tallied on election day. If you are comfortable voting by mail, do so. That said, Trump's lackey now controls the post office. I'm taking that into consideration, personally. ... In fact, I'd argue Trump wants you to vote by mail. He has more control over what happens with your vote that way.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #102)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 05:22 PM

104. I am not telling you how to vote.

You are the one telling me how to vote.
Or rather how not to vote.
And it starting to piss me off.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #104)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 05:28 PM

105. I'm not telling

you a damn thing.

Should I be concerned that you're "pissed off" because of your misconceptions? Well, I'm not.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #105)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 05:35 PM

106. How ironic considering you are the one with a misconseption.

NT

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 05:06 PM

100. I'm voting in person.

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Response to gulliver (Reply #100)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 05:17 PM

103. We have a mask mandate

in MN and Government buildings encourage social distancing. I can safely vote early, thankfully. In 2016 there were only a handful of people at my polling place when I voted prior to the election.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 07:37 PM

119. Seeing these type a posts, makes me even more thankful I live in Oregon.

We've done mail-in for over 20 years. It's not rocket science. States voting by mail for first time need to look at the OR and WA models. The fear mongering by trump and his minions need to be shut-down immediately, using tried and true model states. The bullshit being pushed by the right is just that, bullshit. Media needs to start supporting these models instead of pushing the panic rw narrative. Cripes, it's like some of these states' Governors are skeeter-eaters trapped in a house leading them. All over the damn map, flail-flutter-flail, and then end up dying without ever making it back out of the house. Ridiculous! Look to the successful state models, and Be Like Mike, JUST DO IT.

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Response to MerryBlooms (Reply #119)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 07:52 PM

122. I think we need national standards

for national elections. Yes, let's look at successful states and mirror after them.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #122)

Sat Aug 29, 2020, 09:22 PM

124. Yes, exactly.

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