The NC House is a better flip opportunity than the Senate.
Next, Wachspress explained, they modeled the uncertainty around those margins "to find the chance that both parties will have a say in the redistricting process." There were three sources of uncertainty: the individual district race level, statewide shifts between parties and density-specific shifts. For example, "there's significantly more uncertainty in the ratings based on whether districts are in rural, suburban or urban areas," he noted. That model produced, for example, this "heat map" for North Carolina, a state where the governor plays no role in redistricting.
The most likely outcome is Republican control of both chambers (lower left quadrant), and thus another egregious partisan gerrymander. (It was the previous North Carolina GOP gerrymander that the Supreme Court refused to consider.) The most likely remedy is Democratic control of the House (lower right quadrant). So that's where the project's attention is focused for North Carolina. Here, raw voter power is the amount that adding one more Democratic vote in a given House race would impact the probability of bipartisan control — and thereby a more balanced redistricting process.
In addition to all the other variables, Wang told me that voter power "depends most of all on how close a chamber is to the edge of control." In that respect, he sees state legislatures in Texas, Minnesota and Kansas as being "right on the edge."
https://www.salon.com/2020/08/29/dont-waste-your-money-trying-to-beat-mitch-mcconnell-play-democracy-moneyball-instead/
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