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louis c

(8,652 posts)
Sun Sep 23, 2012, 02:19 PM Sep 2012

Gallup Shows " Romney's 47% Tape" Bounce for Obama

That's my interpretation of today's numbers from Gallup Daily Tracking.

On Job Approval, which is a 3 day rolling average, Obama shows a 7 point improvement today, and has a 51% to 43% advantage.

On the daily horse race with Romney, which is a 7 day rolling average, which will take longer to see a surge, the number is 48% to 46%, Obama leads by 2.

In an article by Nate Silver, it was brought to my attention that Gallup and Rasmussen use only land lines and automated responses. Each of these techniques will skew the numbers toward Romney.

If that's the case, these numbers are sensational, when coupled with the swing state polls.

Link to Gallup:
http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

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Gallup Shows " Romney's 47% Tape" Bounce for Obama (Original Post) louis c Sep 2012 OP
Gallup Uses Landlines And Cell Phones. Rasmussen Is The Robo Caller DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2012 #1

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
1. Gallup Uses Landlines And Cell Phones. Rasmussen Is The Robo Caller
Sun Sep 23, 2012, 05:02 PM
Sep 2012

In any case, the horse race average is a lagging indicator. The approve/disapprove is a leading indicator. Good chance the horse race numbers get better by mid week.

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