Scientists can't explain puzzling lack of coronavirus outbreaks in Africa

[ansible]

The novel coronavirus has infected more than 26.35 million people, with just four countries accounting for over 15 million cases. They are America, Brazil, India, and Russia — the same four that have been at the top for months. The US surprised the world when it rose to the top spot in multiple COVID-19 statistics, both for the total number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths. Since then, no other country has surpassed America.

But scientists who are studying the pandemic have also identified another surprise of the pandemic. Some expected the African continent to be affected most heavily by the virus, but that wasn’t the case. South Africa stands out when it comes to the number of total cases, with nearly 631,000 infections. But fewer than 15,000 people have died of COVID-19. These figures are puzzling scientists looking to understand how the virus behaves and how it can be beaten.

The hypothesis that poverty should have a significant impact on the spread of the virus doesn’t stand when it comes to the entire African continent. Developing countries like Brazil and India showed that the virus couldn’t be contained once it reached densely populated, but poor, neighborhoods. Experts expected the same thing to happen in Africa, but it didn’t. If anything, Africa is doing better than any other continent, both when it comes to cases and casualties. As BBC News explains, even if those numbers are significantly underreported, Africa still has it much better than other continents right now.

“I thought we were heading towards a disaster, a complete meltdown,” Professor Shabir Madhi told BBC News. The nation’s top virologist echoed what others must have thought about the African coronavirus outbreak. But South Africa’s death rate is almost seven times lower than in the UK.

https://nypost.com/2020/09/04/scientists-cant-explain-puzzling-lack-of-coronavirus-outbreaks-in-africa/

[underpants]

1. Fascinating.

I have to say that as bad as it is I thought India would be worse.

We still report on Africa as if it’s one thing not a whole continent.

Does travel play a part here? They travel and people travel there but that was what popped into my head.

[brush]

2. It's huge, second largest to Asia.

[roman88]

3. Not to sound cynical

But some of these scientists sound "disappointed" that an major outbreak didn't occur on the African continent. I still remember that one clip of those French doctors who expressed using Africans for "testing". Sorry but I can't help but feel that way. Racism is everywhere, even in science.

[Igel]

7. Africans were proposed because it was expected they'd be hard hit by the virus.

Poor medical infrastructure, hard to coerce social distancing and enforce such measures.

"Disappointed" is often just "it goes against expectations." The two things overlap--disappointment often follows lack of expectations. But the use of "expectations not met" language does not entail disappointment, at least not expectations that some community suffered as predicted.

In this case, it's a bit of a mystery.

On the other hand, there were causes advanced for why NYC was slammed with SARS-CoV-2 while most of the US wasn't. A lot of people made all kinds of predictions that turned out false--and few were honest enough to actually fess up to being wrong in a biased manner (and often sounded disappointed that other areas didn't have a lot of people dying--again, unfulfilled expectations =/= unmet hopes). The appropriate response then was to say why there might be mitigating factors, but to point out that each area has its own trajectory. The current state of affairs does not predict the future.

[RobinA]

21. Well Said nt

$

[gulliver]

4. Better health in general? The catch-every-cold, get out of COVID idea seems interesting.

[lostnfound]

5. Genetic variation in Africa is far greater than in the rest of the world.

Maybe there’s a fundamental metabolic process that’s different.

[former9thward]

6. Better health?

In general countries in Africa have the worst life expectancy in the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy

[Amishman]

8. But way younger median age (19.7), and the virus is much more forgiving with the young

Just guessing though

[former9thward]

10. Yes, true but Asian countries all have a young population also.

[Spider Jerusalem]

16. No they don't?

Japan's median age is 47; China's is 37.

[Amishman]

18. Actually they don't, Asian countries have a much higher median age

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/343rank.html

India is one of the lowest in Asia - at 28, about 50% higher than the African median.

China is 38.4, just a shade under the US. Their success at containment comes from extreme quarantine practices and enforcement that the US would never tolerate.

[LAS14]

9. Fascinating! Thanks for posting. nt

[JI7]

11. Africa has a system in place from dealing with Ebola. Poverty in the US and some other places is

different from poverty in most parts of Africa.

Poverty in the US usually means being overweight and getting related problems like diabetes which puts people at higher risk of dying from covid.

It's not that surprising .

Plus the US , Brazil, Russia and India have Shitty leaders who have not done anything to seriously deal with the virus.

[Baclava]

12. The first, most deadly virus strain came from China, so Chinese tourists never went to Africa?

[moondust]

13. India has passed Brazil, now #2 after U.S.

Per France24. Was kind of expecting it due to huge population and not so great health care system leading to more underlying conditions.

Cases in U.K., France, and Spain rising. Last two days in France are highest numbers of new cases there since the start. Maybe more testing?

Can't explain Africa unless maybe fewer travelers to/from hot zones.

[Initech]

14. Let's take a minute to look at who leads India, the US, Russia, and Brazil.

Brazil is led by Jair Bolsonaro - who is an ultra right wing wannabe fascist dictator.

Russia is led by Vladimir Putin - who is an ultra right fascist dictator.

India is led by Narajendra Modi - who is an ultra right wing wannabe fascist dictator.

And the US? We're led by Donald J. Trump - who is an ultra right wing wannabe fascist dictator.

Put all of these together and maybe the virus is trying to send us a message. I can't quite put my finger on it.

[LisaL]

15. Just recently people were saying that Florida has a low rate of infections.

At some point covid could very well take off in Africa too. Also, how many tests have been carried out in Africa? If they aren't testing, who will know how many infections they actually have?

[Klaralven]

17. Less travel, younger population, less long term care facilities, hospitals, first responders

One of the first spreading events was a business conference in Boston with international and US attendees. The less travel, the less spread.

There are probably a lot fewer chronically ill or elderly people in institutional settings, which were hard hit in the US.

Covid also infected hospital staff and first responders who then infected family and others they worked with. Staff who worked multiple long term care facilities or hospitals spread Covid from one place to another.

[malaise]

19. I'm so glad to read this

Rec

[MineralMan]

20. I suspect it is due to less business and tourist travel

to African countries than to others. However, it may only be a temporary lull.

[TheFarseer]

22. A mostly young population?

With better immune systems and very little obesity, diabetes etc?