I listened to the model talk on 538 ...

[Le Roi de Pot]

NS talks about his model and pulls back the curtains a bit.


Basically 70% win chance is based on the uncertainty around the stability of his national lead.. But if Biden continues this national lead to Nov 4b.. His win probability goes up to 90 -95%..


Right now Biden has biggger lead than Obama did in 2008 in very blue and very red states - which does not help him electorally ..he is performing slightly worse than Obama in the tipping point states...But none of that matters if he wins by 5% nationally.

If we maintain 7 to 8% .. Good chance that we will also win NC, GA and TX

Let's keep up the good fight folks... We nearly have it!!

[Amishman]

1. I've enjoyed following 270 To Win's model of models

They are aggregating ten (and counting) election maps and models (538's is included).

Very interesting and encouraging. Trump could win every current tossup state - and would still lose.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-forecast-predictions/

[empedocles]

2. The stock market model is much different

If the DJIA is about 22,000 or below, on Election Day, trump's chances are very poor.

If the DJIA is about 29,000 or above, on Election Day, trump's chances are very good.

[nitpicker]

3. IMO, this is counting chickens before they hatch

The MI and PA poll numbers suggest that adding 5 percentage points to Repug totals (to account for stealth Repugs voters and differences in turnout) would put the states in Thump's column.

Lose both those states: lose the election.

BUT anything could happen between now and the election.