HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » I call BS on state polls ...

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 10:35 AM

 

I call BS on state polls with trump in hight 40's

That is where he was in 2016. Do they mean to tell me he has lost little to no no support during the last four years ?????? among .... Seniors, farmers, women, young voters and newly registered voters, all minority voters, military, suburban, college educated, unemployed, independents, Covid 19 effected .... The list of everyone who has dropped support includes just about every category including non-college educated white working class men. All I need to do is put my finger up in the wind and I know which way it blows. Polls BS. Secure the polls, report on that. Secure the votes, report on that. So please stop making this a horse race. It is a race to save our democracy, to elect the government we need to save our country and to do so we have to turn out the biggest turn out for Joe and Kamala the country has ever seen. Report on that. Not to say be over confident but be hopeful, like Barack said.... bring back the HOPE. We still own that.
That message did not end in 2016 either.

16 replies, 727 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread

Response to Miigwech (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 10:39 AM

1. Unfortunately, for me, the people around me that voted for Trump in 2016 hasn't abandoned him

even after they lost their job due to COVID. I know this is just anecdote but it shows that his support hasn't cede as much as we would like.

I think this election is not about changing the 2016 Trump voters to vote for Biden but to drive the people that didn't vote in 2016 for whatever reason to vote for Biden this year.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Claustrum (Reply #1)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 10:42 AM

2. spot on

"I think this election is not about changing the 2016 Trump voters to vote for Biden but to drive the people that didn't vote in 2016 for whatever reason to vote for Biden this year."

My exact thoughts on this as well. I live in a very red area and most of his supporters seem to be digging their heels in with the Dotard. He will always have his crazy base but in the end it comes down to getting people to come out and vote. If that happens I think we are in a good spot... if not, well, I just can't process another 4 years of this BS.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Miigwech (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 10:45 AM

3. depends on state and what poll. Obvivosly trump is in trouble at this moment in states

 

he should not be in trouble. I don't concern myself with any polling outside of whether its indicating a trend and there is nothing to suggest trump is improving

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Miigwech (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 10:46 AM

4. I feel the same way. I think that telephone technology has changed so much

that surveyors can't get through incoming call screeners to get good samples. Personally, my iPhone and landline have such effective screeners that I have been polled only once for this election. That one guy who got through was leaving a message, so I picked up. The others gave up before choosing to leave a voice message. I read that in my County every DEM was called and many were called twice. Well, those calls never got to me. I would have answered if they had started a voice message.

Trump has pissed off so many segments of the voters that I can't see how he could be as strong as in the 2016 election.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Miigwech (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 10:46 AM

5. Yes, we have to keep hope alive - we can not let these polls make us feel like all hope is lost.

In my state of FL - we see so much trumpy love and frenzy in "his county" of Palm Beach where Mar-a-Lago is that one would think that the color blue does not exist, but that is an illusion. While they are a very loud and visible group, they really are not the numerical majority they want us to believe they are. When I checked election database what I found was that actually the Dems outnumber the repubs in his own trumpy hometown, not the other way around: 419,586 D and only 278,689 R.

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Miigwech (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 10:50 AM

6. Trump's approval rating has been cultishly solid for the past four years

so the simple answer is yes he has lost little to no support.

The good news is that:
a) he won by the tiniest margins in 2016 (0.5% in three states)
b) democratic turnout was low in 2016 and rebounded heavily in 2018

So Trump is very beatable. Either a small drop in support or a modest rise in Democratic turnout is fatal to his chances and right now it looks like both are happening. Still the sooner you accept that about 40% of the people in the country you love ... love Trump the easier it is to plan for the future.

Those voters aren't holding their noses and voting for Trump. They like Trump. Yes it is grotesque and sad and it shows how far we have fallen as a nation but it is the reality. It shows that the disease goes a lot further than Trump. Pretending that it isn't true won't make it better.

Also don't be surprised if the next Republican Presidential candidate is Trump 2.0. Being Trump works and with 85%+ of Republicans approving of Trump the only way anyone will become the next Republican nominee is by out Trumping Trump. So while we must remove Trump from office this doesn't end with Trump.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Statistical (Reply #6)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 10:55 AM

8. Agree on all points.

Though for your last point, it could just be a mini-Trump such as Ivanka or Jr. I don't think Trump will let go of their golden egg that is the republican party. As much as I would love to never hear of the word "Trump", it's likely that the Trumps won't let the republican party go.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Statistical (Reply #6)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 11:20 AM

11. Investigating, charging, and convicting great gobs of the trump 1.0 crowd,

including Needy Amin himself, would go a long way to discouraging another round. The country can't take one more episode of 'let's move on so the nation can heal' nonsense. Just sayin'.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Miigwech (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 10:54 AM

7. Anyone catch the segment on NPR (rural MN) this morning?

It was demoralizing. Solidly reliable rural Dems going for trump.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Miigwech (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 11:03 AM

9. Trump is a GOD for most white rural Texans. They love him and all of his nastiness. The key will be

the turnout in urban and suburban areas and most importantly the Hispanic turnout. Texas has one of the lowest voting rates of any state. Why? I think it is because most Texans that I have met like to talk a lot of BS but are mostly lazy. The exception is the Hispanic community who are hard workers but many have embraced a culture of submissiveness which comes from decades of inequality and racism.

I hope I'm wrong and we see a Democratic victory - it would be so uplifting for millions in Texas.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Miigwech (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 11:04 AM

10. Me too.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Miigwech (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 11:23 AM

12. The fact that Trump has an approval rating

above single digits is a massive failure of human morality.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Miigwech (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 11:44 AM

13. It sad but true.

I am my wife have large numbers of our family who like and or love Trump. It makes me sad it makes me angry but there is nothing that can be done to change their minds. Fox News, Q , Facebook and others have convinced them he is the White Messiah that have been looking for for years.

It is frighting that they along with others are essentially voting to end democracy as we know it.

Democracy or what is left of democracy after Trump is what is at stake and all I hear is Socialism, BLM, ANTIFA, etc, etc.

The majority of white America will not accept diversity.

Brown = Bad period and there is nothing can be done to change that in their minds.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Miigwech (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 11:47 AM

14. Instead of whining about polls that aren't good why not work to improve them.

 

Posts like this do nothing but lull people into complacency. Assume these polls are accurate as to where things are right now. Then work our butts off every day to improve any numbers that raise concerns, such as our poor standing in Miami-Dade county with Hispanics, etc.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Miigwech (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 12:30 PM

15. Wait, are you saying you don't think he's in the high 40's for his approval in any state?

I can assure you he's nearly 60% in one state: Alabama.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Polybius (Reply #15)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 01:02 PM

16. Thank you, I mean to say anywhere he had say 49% Statewide support

 

in 2016 there is no way he has the same this time around. It has to be at least 10 point lower. Alabama is off my radar They are such a sorry state and they have already been written off as far as polls are concerned, but you are correct in correcting me.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread