I believe Republicans are making a massive miscalculation with the Supreme Court

[Dr. Jack]

McConnell has an almost obsessive focus on turning the courts into a Republican wet dream but I believe that is clouding his judgement in ways the Republicans will live to regret in the short term and the long term. Remember, all actions have consequences and the harder McConnell leans into shitting all over the unwritten rules of Washington, the more the Dems are going to push back. These things don't happen in a vacuum and there are a lot of potential, even very likely consequences that the Republicans are going to live to regret. Here are a few I see as being fairly likely

1. Republicans will go overboard with talk about outlawing all abortion in the country, taking away healthcare, and taking away other rights that is going to scare the shit out of Democrats and independents.

2. The obvious hypocrisy by McConnell, Trump, and most Senate Republicans is going to be a massive confirmation to a lot of people that the current Republican leadership has no honor and cannot be trusted. A few weeks before the election, they are going to be seen as even more like cynical, dishonest, corrupt politicians than they already are.

3. McConnell and Senate Republicans weren't willing to stay in session for coronavirus aid but is going to call everyone back for a Supreme Court fight than I'm willing to bet a solid majority of voters won't want until after a new president is elected. Trump and McConnell are already extremely unpopular. There is no way even 40% of Americans will say "I'm fine with them ramming someone through before RGB is even in the ground yet". For a party that is already seen by a good majority of voters as indifferent to death and suffering, this will increase the perception that the GOP are ghoulish opportunists

4. Democratic voters and those who want civility in politics are going to be massively riled up by this. Sure Republicans will be too but as we have seen with Trump's shitty approval numbers, the Senate Republicans shitty approval numbers, and election polls for the presidency and Senate, there are a lot more people fed up with the Republicans than who are on board with their shit. Leaning hard into doing what their base wants has been a disastrous strategy in this election. Ramming through a new justice will be like the "rile up the base" strategy on steroids. The more they rile up their base, the more the significantly larger Democratic and anti Trump voters are going to get.

5. In politics, the more you upset the balance the harder people are going to fight to restore said balance. Somewhat fringe positions even 24 hours ago, like packing the courts, getting rid of the filibuster, abolishing the electoral college are likely going to be far more mainstream. The Republicans are, in my opinion, more likely to lose the election now, not less. In 6 months they will be facing a democratic house, Senate, and white house with a progressive agenda that they are going to be powerless to stop. Republicans should be expecting a massive counter attack to their illegitimate conservative takeover of the courts.

6. Ramming someone through is going to be far more difficult than some people assume and I think McConnell shot from the hip last night without checking that he has the support to even do that from his own members. Only two more Republicans need to come forward to say no nominee before the inauguration and McConnell will seem like an ineffectual opportunist. So far Murkowski and Romney are siding with the Dems. The Arizona special election will add another dem seat in November. Seriously, its hard to believe but automatically assume the Republicans even have the votes.


This is a massive, massive political risk for the Republicans both before and after the election. The bolder they go the greater the chance they will fail. Republicans may win the battle but I believe they are quickly going to lose the war.

[Thekaspervote]

4. That simply is not true! 400 bills the house has passed that lay of mcturtles desk

We do not hold the reins of power in the senate..

[Dr. Jack]

8. I agree. The Dems are far less inept and meek than some people think

They might not do everything we want but that's life in a democracy. They aren't going to just roll over and give up on this.

[qazplm135]

2. Long term yes

But Republicans don't think long term, they think tactically not strategically.

[regnaD kciN]

3. CORRECTION: Romney has officially denied those claims...

Susan Colllins has said she wouldn’t vote to confirm, but only until election day, so she offers no such reassurance about a lame duck session, win or lose.

[pfitz59]

5. I like your analysis.

There are a lot of GOP Senators shitting bricks over this. Most definitely Lindsay Graham faces political suicide if he presses too hard. Knowing Trump, he'll pick the most egregious candidate. Dem fact-checkers better have their ducks lined up. The Kavanaugh confirmation was atrocious. (I still can't beleive how such a whiny, crying, ill-tempered sot could get enough votes)

[Dr. Jack]

13. Don't underestimate self preservation

It's easy for us to see the entire Republican party as a mindless monolith that would literally walk off a cliff with McConnell told them to. Seems very doubtful that will be the case.

[wryter2000]

48. Plus

Kavanaugh clearly perjured himself during the hearings.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

6. Thank you, and Well said! How I hope you're right. n/t

[stopwastingmymoney]

7. Ghoulish opportunists

Well said, kicking for later, thanks

[JHB]

9. Has Romney confirmed that himself? There are conflicting reports.

Former Utah state senator tweeted that a high-level Romney insider told him that Romney would not confirm an SC appointment until after inauguration day.

A half hour later, Romney communications director Liz Johnson called that "grossly false. #fakenews".

Has there been any additional information since last night?

Until he says it, it hasn't happened. And even then, it would be unwise to count on him keeping to it.

[Salviati]

10. "So far Murkowski and Romney are siding with the Dems."

Are they though? Has any republican come out since the news broke and stated this?

I'm sure as hell not going to trust any republican statement made in response to a hypothetical situation weeks or months ago. I put a little more weight in what murkowski said, because it seems a bit beyond the pale, even for a republican, to say "that was then, this is now" to something you said earlier in the very same day. But the republican party has never failed to disappoint me, why start now.

People need to slow their roll on statements claiming certain republicans are against this, when there really isn't any evidence, other than wishful thinking, that they are. We can highlight republicans that it would be useful to target, but stating that they're already in our camp could be counterproductive.

[still_one]

16. We need 4. I suspect Collins will be pressed hard since she is up for re-election. It all depends

if their are any other republicans who feel allowing a SC appointment before the election will help or hurt them in their political calculation

[wryter2000]

47. If I were Susan Collins

I would find not allowing an appointment before the election my best bet to keep my seat. Trump is bigly unpopular in Maine. If she can appear to stand up for justice and against him, it might change a few voters' opinions of her. She could always go back to being a phony after the election.

[Hortensis]

27. Brian Williams cynically reminded us of Sen. Jeff Flake's

"pained facial expression -- and he got very good at that" and how we mistook that for a potential no vote on that reeking scumbag, Kavanaugh.

[not fooled]

54. Up to 3 will vote no

mcconnell will allow as many as 3 puke senators, especially those from states that might go blue--to "side" with the dems. Won't matter in the end. Murkowski will repeat her kabuki "no" vote from last time.

[Salviati]

57. An apt username

And likewise, I'm not going to be fooled.

[CrispyQ]

11. "...the more the Dems are going to push back."

I haven't seen that in over forty years. It's partly why we're where we are. We're always the ones who reach across the aisle, look forward, and try to unite the nation. We're playing by long established rules and they've thrown the rule book in the trash. And now they have their boot on our neck. I used to give us a 30% chance of surviving Trump/Barr/McConnell, but it's gone way down today.

[Dr. Jack]

12. I suppose we can just give up and let the republicans destroy this country

If all hope is lost then time to start planning for Trump's incoming police state. I suppose that is all we can do. It was a great country but it's time has come. In the end we just didn't fight hard enough.

[CrispyQ]

28. I tend toward pessimism.

But I do think there has been a refusal on our side, particularly with long time congress members, to see exactly how undemocratic and extreme their colleagues across the aisle have become. I hope dem leadership is awake now and ready to take off the gloves. As for me, I've voted every election since I was 18 and will always vote and am making calls for my local dem party. I don't know what more I can do in this grim, awful situation. Feeling particularly glum this morning.

[Wednesdays]

29. Oh, brother.

I truly hope you're being sarcastic. Ever hear of someone named Joe Biden, who's leading tRump by as much as double digits in polls?

[Dr. Jack]

31. Just taking some of the defeatest comments to their logical conclusion

Hoping maybe to maybe help one or two people realize that they may be taking the self pity and hopelessness a bit too far.

[Bev54]

17. If dems get both the senate and the house and presidency

what is to stop them from writing new laws to shore up and fill holes in laws as long as they are constitutional. If the laws are constitutional then the supreme court has to abide by them right?

[Sneederbunk]

46. Blue Dog Democrats. See ACA.

[Yusuf2k7]

14. I disagree, there is no downside for GOP

For one they are not going to go vote on nomination until after elections. If he did it before that would be politically bad for the likes of Collins. After elections it is win/win for them.

So it comes down to election outcome. If they retain senate it's a moot point because they will have votes during lame deck session and 2021 to confirm the nominee.

If they don't retain Senate, they will jam through during lame deck session. There will be no political consequences to worry because the likes of Collins have already either won or lost. The risk is what the Dems will do to counter and I think they would be right to assume the Dems will not do something drastic like packing courts. I hope am wrong but they would be right to think they will get away with it just like they did with Obama's Garland pick.

[Dr. Jack]

23. No political consequences?

2020 isn't the last election despite what some people are saying or fearing. 2022 isn't coming up fast and the there is 2024. If Republicans only do what is best for them right now, in fall 2020, there will be consequences. The Democrats passed the ACA in 2010 and they are still dealing with the consequences. People don't just develop amnesia after the polls close. If you think in the world of politics that any action will be one party is 100% the winner and there will be zero consequences then I'm not sure what you have seen in your experiences to make you believe such things.

[napi21]

15. Murkowski, Graham, Collins, & Romney. That's 4 & I suspect there are others we don't know about.

[still_one]

18. I wouldn't count on Graham, regardless what he has said. Perhaps Gardner in Colorado

[niyad]

34. cory is a useless, spineless hack. Count on him to protect his own ass, especially as he is trailing

Hickenlooper.

[Salviati]

19. We don't know about these four.

Forget about counting your chickens before they're hatched, folks are counting these chickens before the eggs are even laid.

[SharonClark]

22. Agree, you just can't trust any republican.

[Statistical]

20. "There is no way even 40% of Americans ..." are you kidding

"There is no way even 40% of Americans will say "I'm fine with them ramming someone through before RGB is even in the ground yet".

Are you kidding me? Of course they will. They will be overjoyed. I think people keep failing over and over and over and over and over and over to realize Republicans care about one thing and one thing only ... winning.

Moscow Mitch's tactics got them one Supreme Court justice and now likely another one. They don't give a shit about what might happen 5 or 10 years done the road. They won by blocking Garland in 2016. They will win by replacing Ginsberg in 2020. They will figure out the future when it happens.

[Dr. Jack]

24. Alright then, I won't bother voting this year

This country sounds beyond repair and hopeless. If we are that far gone then fuck it. I'm not wasting my time going to the polls now.

[Statistical]

26. 40% is less than 50% you should vote.

Sweet love of God man. I just got done explaining that all Republicans care about is winning and your "solution" to that is ensure Republicans win. Yeah that will teach them.

[Dr. Jack]

30. Ah good then all hope isn't lost

Glad to hear you still have the fight in you 😉

[AllTooEasy]

59. BULLSHIT! You are going overboard with this Negative Slippery slope

To use a sports analogy, just because your team loses one game doesn’t mean the season is lost. Why can’t you see that?

This Supreme Court seat is lost, not the 2020 Presidential election or any future elections. Nobody is saying anything about not voting. You are making up that crap! You’re obnoxiously mocking people for a mental paradigm that you falsely imagine they have. Only a fool is negative or positive ALL the time. Wise folks see Reality, and react accordingly to it. The Reality is that Repukes are hypocrites, liars, and scoundrels. Ofcourse, they will ram this through. Your foolish optimism is so extreme that you believe that Repukes will allow any possibility for Biden (who will win 2020) and Chuck Shumer(the 2020 Senate Majority leader) to make that pick. The Reality is that SCOTUS justices often outlive the terms or lives or their appointed Presidents. SCOTUS seats are worth far more than congressional seats. Repukes would lose their base if they didn’t ram it through during their IMPENDING lame duck session. That’s not pessimism, that’s Reality, and it’s past time that everyone focuses on our counter move after Biden and Shumer TAKE CONTROL after Inauguration Day.

[SharonClark]

21. Thanks for posting your thoughtful analysis.

[solara]

25. But can they replace a SCOTUS

in the MIDDLE of an election? Voting started yesterday. The idea that there are "7 weeks" until the election is out the window.. early voting has made it so.

[HariSeldon]

32. I do think retribution for a confirmation vote is in order

But I think we can start by impeaching Kavanaugh for lying under oath to the Senate and Thomas for financial reporting errors (either he did it knowingly or he's not competent to hold a seat on the Supreme Court). With a Senate majority, there could be a real impeachment trial. Start by shining light where Republicans don't want it, then pack the court(s) if they continue to put party over good government.

[Mr.Bill]

44. But like a presidential impeachment,

you need 67 votes in the Senate to remove them from office. Some day, maybe, but not in the near future.

[LizBeth]

33. I thought Grassley and Collins were too, but then later in the night it seems that all 4 have just

said it in the past and I have not found where any have stood on the ground of not replacing RBG until 2020 is in place since the death.

Any info would be great. I hate depending on trusting a republican.

[stopdiggin]

43. all of this is based on previous/prior statements

and don't expect that there will be clear positions announced for some period -- on the grounds of respect and decency. Trump and McConnell are running around shooting their mouths off. Everyone else ....

In any event -- the far greater likelihood here is that we're talking about a lame duck appointment (and thus after the elections)

(merely my own opinion -- backed by no one else on the face of ....)

[bucolic_frolic]

35. All I can say is THIS is the time to answer McConnell's Garland Stonewall 2016

If they can find a way to do it, now is the time, or I mean after the election is the time. Does the Senate require a quorum? Don't provide one. It that means going home, go home. Voters are with you or you wouldn't be doing it.

Does Trump need a budget? Don't go there. Never cooperate on anything until a new president is inaugurated.

THIS IS THE TIME! You fight fire with fire. You stall. Mitch stretched the rules, now you stretch new rules. You don't delay, you don't slow walk and hope 3 Republicans fall into your line. You stonewall!

[SophieJean]

41. There is this action from Demand Progress

and I agree with Dems stonewalling, but doubt if they will have the fortitude.

https://act.demandprogress.org/sign/rbg-scotus

[ehrnst]

62. It seems you have a dim view of Democrats. "No fortitude."

But I'll bite, why do you think "Demand Progress" knows more, or cares more about Senate procedure and what would stop the replacement of RGB than Senate Democrats?

I notice that they don't have any mention of the negative effects would shutting down all Senate activity have on the Coronavirus response.

[WheelWalker]

36. I believe there are 4 among the Senate majority that will vote against

moving forward with confirmation in the middle of a Presidential election (which is where we are, early voting having begun), including but not limited to Romney and Murkowski. However, they are not committing out of the gate as they will want something in return for their vote against party leadership. That's politics. Time will tell.

[PatrickforO]

37. I'm hoping that the whole obstructionist schtick of the Republican Senate under

Moscow Mitch will backfire. Good post.

[AlexSFCA]

38. no gop senator said they won't vote to confirm after RGB's death

I see no downside for them in confirming, imagine if dems would be in this position, we would be adamant in making sure they do vote to confirm. Imagine how it could anger those senators core voters if they won’t confirm...
Election have consequences and 2016 election, as Hillary said, was the most consequential of our lifetimes.
In the short term, if ACA decision comes out with incomplete court, there is hope it would be 4-4 as roberts will side with us. He may possibly be joined by gorsuch which would give solid victory. There is a possibility.

[SophieJean]

39. I received this petition in an email today. Interesting idea, but doubt if Dems will do this

From-Demand Progress
https://act.demandprogress.org/sign/rbg-scotus

Shut down the Senate and stop Trump and McConnell from picking RBG's successor!
Petition to the Senate:
Use every procedural option available to you to shut down the Senate and make sure Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell do not get to pick Ruth Bader Ginsburg's successor on the Supreme Court.

The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Friday evening comes as a shock and a tragedy. We honor her forty years of pathbreaking service on the federal bench, including 27 years on the Supreme Court.

Her dying wish was that her replacement not be confirmed until a new president has been installed. Mitch McConnell just said he will not respect that wish and will instead hold a vote on Trump's nominee. But Senate Democrats have the power to stop them and save the Supreme Court.

The Senate runs on unanimous consent. If a single Senator objects to anything, even routine procedure, everything grinds to a halt. That is what Senate Democrats must do: block unanimous consent on every single thing for the rest of the year. It may be our best chance to stop Trump and McConnell. Will you help?

Sign the petition: Shut down the Senate and stop Trump and McConnell from picking RBG's successor!

This is a frankly terrifying moment. But there is a path forward. Senate Democrats have the power and the leverage to prevent Trump and McConnell from deciding who will succeed Justice Ginsburg on the Supreme Court.

Senate Democrats can block every motion, force every bill to be read in full, and use a wide range of parliamentary tactics to shut down the Senate between now and January, when new Senators and the president are inaugurated.

The Senate still has work ahead, including bills Trump and McConnell want to pass, including bills to fund the government. It's time to block all of it.

McConnell and Trump see this as their best, and perhaps last, opportunity to further stack the federal courts with extreme right-wing nominees who will cripple the next president. As tough a moment as this is, we can stop them -- if Democrats act firmly to shut down the Senate now.

Add your name now: Tell Democrats to shut down the Senate and stop Trump and McConnell from picking RBG's successor!

Sign the petition:
Name*
Email address*
ZIP Code*

[tazmaniac]

49. Does this work? If so,

why haven't Dems been doing it all along? Seriously, just asking.

[ehrnst]

61. Good question. But then again, who are we to doubt that "Demand Progress" is more of an expert on

Senate procedure than Dems in the Senate? It sounds more like a group that has a goal with stoking rage at Democrats.




I wouldn't hold my breath for an answer if I were you.

[ehrnst]

60. Any particular reason you doubt this? (nt)

[Coyote45]

40. Dr. Jack

I believe in retaliation. If we get the house, the senate and the presidency, then statehood for
Puerto Rico and D.C.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

42. Back in 2016 I lost a lot of respect

for Obama because he simply didn't fight for the Senate to consider Merrick Garland. He essentially rolled over and said, fine, no problem. He should have been front and center every day taking the Senate to task for refusing to do their job.

And now, Democrats everywhere, especially those in the Senate, need to be front and center every day about the hypocrisy involved in the current rush to confirm a new justice. Plus, lots of ads that point that out.

[not fooled]

56. +++++++++++++++++++++

[ehrnst]

63. "Rolled over and said "fine, no problem?"

Got a link to that statement?

And what would being "out front and center every day taking the Senate to task" have accomplished, other than make you feel better?

"Democrats were outraged, of course, but were short of tools with which to respond. As the minority party — following a disastrous midterm in 2014 — they could not force a committee or a floor vote. They gave speeches, and they urged voters to turn out in protest in the November elections."

https://www.npr.org/2018/06/29/624467256/what-happened-with-merrick-garland-in-2016-and-why-it-matters-now

This is like people who got mad when Gore accepted the SCOTUS decision about Gore v Bush, as if there was a higher court he could have appealed to...

[Blue Owl]

45. K&R

[Hip2bSquare]

50. Cautiously optimistic

I do have a sliver of optimism. There just can't be any way it'll be that easy for mcconnell. If they cram, and it would be a cram, a justice through in just over a month, mcconnell's legacy will be his hypocrisy and his hypocrisy and obstructionism alone. They pick some severe righty while voting has now started in some states could have an influence on senate races. The potential nominees, Cotton being one of them, I would dare him to speak about Roe/Wade now after just losing a warrior woman supreme court justice who's legacy is women's and equal rights.

It'd be wise for them to be patient, but time is not on their side and neither is smarts. We have the numbers, so we must have faith.

[LymphocyteLover]

51. totally agree

[genxlib]

52. I have one major disagreement with you

On this statement

In 6 months they will be facing a democratic house, Senate, and white house with a progressive agenda that they are going to be powerless to stop.

A solid majority on the Supreme Court is the ultimate Trump card. Despite what we can get passed, it can be discarded in the courts.

[not_the_one]

53. Sure it is a mistake. But given their massive "rigging" of the rules, they don't care.

Their mantras are "FUCK THE CONSTITUTION" and the alleged "RULE OF LAW".

They have every intention of continuing business as usual. They are finally realizing their long term goals. If successful, you can stick a fork in the good 'ol US of A. We are done, and down for the count.

Unless democrats do whatever is necessary to stop it. We are going to have to be very creative.

[Fiendish Thingy]

55. If they fill RBG's seat, it guarantees Dems win control of Senate, maybe 55+ seats. Nt

[yaesu]

58. the fascists can do whatever they want, they cheated their way into 2/3rds majority, and could care

less about doing the right thing. Now, the question is, how far is our reps willing to go to inflict pain on them, not giving the fascists anything they want, stop all funds for everything, shut this fascist government right down, including the military, everything. But, we know this won't happen, the fascists will get another judge, elections have consequences & we have at least another 4 months of those consequences left.

[BlueWavePsych]

64. K&R