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ProSense

(116,464 posts)
Tue Sep 25, 2012, 05:00 PM Sep 2012

Epistemic closure and poll denialism

Epistemic closure and poll denialism

By Steve Benen

With six weeks to go in the 2012 presidential election, the polls look quite good for President Obama. All of the usual caveats still apply -- there's still time, Obama's modest lead is not insurmountable, uncontrollable events are impossible to predict, etc. -- but Mitt Romney and his supporters are understandably discouraged.

Well, at least some of them are. A surprising number of Republicans have decided to go a different route, arguing that all of the evidence pointing to Obama's advantage is wrong.

The Romney campaign and other Republicans say polls showing President Obama with a significant lead over their candidate are inaccurate.

They argue many mainstream polls skew in Obama's favor because of sample sizes that base 2012 turnout projections on 2008, when Democrats -- and Hispanics, blacks and young voters in particular -- turned out in record numbers.

"I don't think [the polls] reflect the composition of what 2012 is going to look like," Romney pollster Neil Newhouse said in an interview.

Frustration that polls are skewed in favor of Obama has escalated among some on the right in recent weeks. One website,www.unskewedpolls.com, recently began re-weighting the mainstream polls to closer track the demographic assumptions of conservative polling outlet Rasmussen Reports. The re-weighted polls all show Romney ahead in the race, with leads of between 3 and 11 percentage points.

So, every national poll released over the last several weeks -- literally, all of them -- show Obama leading Romney. Unsatisfied with these results, the right has decided to fiddle with the figures, and wouldn't you know it, the new-and-improved polls all show Romney leading Obama.

<...>

Second, we know Republicans, in their heart of hearts, don't seriously believe the polls are skewed against them. If they did, Republicans would be feeling very optimistic about Romney's chances, and clearly, they're not....Indeed, if internal Republican polling, which presumably wouldn't be part of the larger conspiracy, showed Romney with a consistent lead, he and his campaign wouldn't feel the need to constantly reboot itself with new messages....And finally, it's worth appreciating why the right is having this reaction to all of the recent polls. I suspect epistemic closure has a lot to do with it. Remember, for many Republicans, it's extremely easy to avoid objective information -- they can read a conservative newspaper in the morning, listen to conservative talk radio during the day, come home and watch Fox News before going to bed.

- more -

http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/09/25/14094036-epistemic-closure-and-poll-denialism


7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Epistemic closure and poll denialism (Original Post) ProSense Sep 2012 OP
reminds me of this: phantom power Sep 2012 #1
. ProSense Sep 2012 #2
I think the real top Repubs know that Mitt is Jennicut Sep 2012 #3
Not like any of this matters Doctor Jack Sep 2012 #4
Yup, here is the key: ProSense Sep 2012 #6
What they Really Mean is They Intend to Stop as Many Young People and Blacks as Possible from Voting AndyTiedye Sep 2012 #5
Hope all these polls start to demoralize the Repukes nationally!!! gopiscrap Sep 2012 #7

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)
3. I think the real top Repubs know that Mitt is
Tue Sep 25, 2012, 05:18 PM
Sep 2012

shit. He is done, the debates would have to have President Obama not show up to move the #'s in a big way. The voting base of their party is being lied to because they can't handle reality.


Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
4. Not like any of this matters
Tue Sep 25, 2012, 05:29 PM
Sep 2012

The Republicans can try to distort the polling information all they want, in the end it isn't going to win them the election. Saying Romney is actually ahead is nothing more than a security blanket that they can wrap themselves up in for the next few weeks. It does nothing to change the dynamic of the race or to help Romney close the gap.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
6. Yup, here is the key:
Tue Sep 25, 2012, 07:38 PM
Sep 2012
Second, we know Republicans, in their heart of hearts, don't seriously believe the polls are skewed against them. If they did, Republicans would be feeling very optimistic about Romney's chances, and clearly, they're not....Indeed, if internal Republican polling, which presumably wouldn't be part of the larger conspiracy, showed Romney with a consistent lead, he and his campaign wouldn't feel the need to constantly reboot itself with new messages...

Romney isn't hitting the reset button because he thinks he has a winning message.

Republicans aren't panicking because they're confident in Romney.

AndyTiedye

(23,500 posts)
5. What they Really Mean is They Intend to Stop as Many Young People and Blacks as Possible from Voting
Tue Sep 25, 2012, 05:37 PM
Sep 2012
They argue many mainstream polls skew in Obama's favor because of sample sizes that base 2012 turnout projections on 2008, when Democrats -- and Hispanics, blacks and young voters in particular -- turned out in record numbers.

"I don't think reflect the composition of what 2012 is going to look like," Romney pollster Neil Newhouse said in an interview.


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