A 'what if' about Kerry and 2004...

[Drunken Irishman]

Let's say Kerry is declared the winner of Ohio's 20 electoral votes ... let's say he wins and becomes the next President of the United States.

So, take off your blinders, and try to look at this rationally and as unbiased as possible.

How much changes between 2005 and 2009?

Remember, Kerry would be entering his presidency with a Republican House & Senate and as we've seen the past four years, with a mixed congress, it's a bitch getting anything passed, let alone something substantial. The Republicans would be absolutely incensed Kerry defeated Bush, their Golden Boy, and I'm guessing, like they did with Obama in '09, would make it their mission to obstruct him at every turn. The difference, of course, is they're now in the majority in both the House & Senate.

So, Kerry enters office with a growing economy, but not a booming economy, and a mess in Iraq. Does he pull out or shift the strategy a bit? Is it enough to squash the violence? What really unraveled Bush's second term was the disastrous turn Iraq took in 2005 ... where casualties spiked. Does that happen under Kerry? If it does, what path do you see him taking? Bush had his surge, does Kerry bring home the troops? It took Obama a couple years to end the Iraq War, and that was after four extra years under Bush, is it realistic to assume the Iraq War continues at least beyond 2006? If it does, do the Democrats lose seats in the House & Senate, solidifying Republican control? Or can Kerry buck history and win seats as the incumbent party?

Democrats won back congress mostly because of Iraq. If Iraq is still a major issue, and Kerry is the president, it's not hard to imagine Democrats losing even more seats.

So, then what? Can Kerry stave off the financial meltdown? Or is that something preset even before he became president? Would he be able to fight back the housing market collapse? With Republicans in control, could he push through regulatory measures to stop the impending crisis? If he couldn't, would he be able to get the bailouts needed to keep the economy from totally collapsing?

The meltdown happened in September. If Kerry had rebounded after the Iraqi surge (or troops removal), could he survive the meltdown? If not, is he locked in as a one-term president?

I'm guessing yes. I like Kerry, but I think that situation was far too gone to be pulled back in such a short amount of time. Kerry would've been saddled with Bush's mistakes, and I don't foresee him being able to overcome 'em ... similar to how H.W. Bush was saddled with Reagan's. Maybe he does, but boy imagine if Kerry had lost in '08 to ... George Allen, who never utters the macaca comment because, with the Republicans performing exceptionally well in the mid-terms, he's not frantically campaigning against an insurgent Democrat. I've read Allen was one of the favorites for '08, but that his loss in '06 sank his campaign. If he holds on to his senate seat, he most likely becomes the favorite of the base ... and with the economy gone and the nation's financial markets in meltdown, he could've won.

Imagine ... President George Allen.



The good things about a one-term Kerry presidency: he would have most likely selected two Supreme Court justices, assuming Sandra Day O'Connor still retires and William Rehnquist dies.

That would've taken one conservative and one swing who sided a lot with the conservatives and replaced them with liberals.

So...

Liberals:
John Paul Stevens
David Souter
Ruth Bader Ginsburg
Stephen Breyer
Kerry Appointment #1
Kerry Appointment #2 - including, most likely, the new Chief Justice

Conservatives:
Antonin Scalia
Clarence Thomas

Swing:
Anthony Kennedy

Imagine a court like that. So, maybe it would've been worth it in the end to have Kerry win ... even if he was a one-termer.

Just a fun what if. No point to this post except I'm bored and was just thinking about this and I guess sometimes it might be impossible for a president to overcome the circumstances.

What do you think?

[H2O Man]

1. Interesting question.

I know that, as the election was getting close, there was a night that Kerry was talking to an advisor. They were commenting on how things really were at least as bad, as the Kerry campaign was claiming. And though I can't recall the exact quote, Kerry made a comment about "what if I actually do win?"

Perhaps the one thing that I think Kerry absolutely would have done is to have a more thorough investigation of the Plame Scandal. And that alone would have been extremely significant.

[hrmjustin]

2. Sandra Day O. might not have retired if she thought he was going to loose. She is in good health.

But everything else you said is spot on. Remember Kerry lost the popular vote 62 million to 59 million so if he won the state of OH the gop would not have thought him legit. They would have given him no quarter. They would have won the 2006 elections and the nation would have had an incumbent running for re-election during a financial crisis. Allen would have won the nomination and won the election. Then all our rights would be out the window.
But if Kerry had done better in the popular vote, and carried some of the down ballot with him, things might have been better for him. This we would never know. He allowed them to go after his service record, and that made him look week with voters on both sides. That cost him the election.