General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsI am confused about the chosen state electors being sent
to decide the vote . Pelosi said each sate gets one and the GOP has more than Dems. I don't get what happens between election and inauguration this year.
Statistical
(19,264 posts)Nov 3rd - general election. Technically when you are voting for Biden you are actually voting for electors which will cast an electoral vote for Biden not Biden himself since the President is elected by the electoral college.
Dec. 14 - electoral college meets individually in each state. All states select electors by the election results. The electors then cast votes for their candidates. Most states seat electors on a winner take all basis but two state NE and ME split their electors based on districts.
Dec 20 - All 50 states plus DC each deliver their certified electoral votes to Congress. Example Virginia casts 13 electoral votes for Biden. Montana casts 3 electoral votes for Trump.
Jan. 6 - Joint session of Congress meets and determines the winner of the election. If any candidate has 270 electoral votes they win. That is it. There is nothing further that Congress does. IF NEITHER candidate has 270 EV then the House will vote 1 vote per state to pick the next President. The same happens in the Senate for VP.
So the short version is yes if neither candidate gets 270 EV Congress decides and due to state breakdown 27 states vs 23 states, Trump would be re-elected. However that only is the case if neither candidate gets 270 EV.
exboyfil
(17,862 posts)or just a majority of the votes that are actually cast (for example if a state does not submit its electoral votes)?
Statistical
(19,264 posts)Side note this is what third party candidates are batshit crazy. Even if somehow one year a third party candidate got some EV they could never get 270 EV and if they kept everyone from doing that it would go to Congress and Congress would never vote to make a third party candidate President.
So at the Presidential level with the electoral college in place a third party vote is beyond stupid.
getagrip_already
(14,646 posts)So what is the difference?
If a state fails to appoint electors, either through court blockage or legislative moves, then the electors from that state are subtracted from the total and the majority number decreases. That state effectively becmes disenfranchised.
But it isn't at all clear when electors are appointed. It is likely well before the election, so in effect, it is 270. But it need not be.
Now the real question is if it is possible for the house to not hold a vote. You know, because the speaker has a hair cutting appointment back in cali or some such thing.
There is a cascading series of steps called out in the constitution for what happens if the EC fails to elect a potus. The last is the order of succession, which would fall to the speaker if none of the other steps successfully choose a potus.
The senate is not a factor here since they need 2/3 to appoint a vpotus. So it's not like they are going to elect a republican vp who will then become potus.
It's constitutional chess.
BigmanPigman
(51,568 posts)when asked what Congress will do between Nov and Dec if the votes get to that stage. She said each state gets one vote and the GOP has more (and I think she was talking aboit the House, not Senate). I wish I had a clip ofnit to share.
Statistical
(19,264 posts)I covered that in the outline above. I would point out that it is technicality and has never happened in the history of the modern political parties.
If either candidate has 270 EV. That is it. It is done. Congress never votes.
However yes if neither candidate gets 270 EV then it is up to Congress to decide. The House decides the president but it is 1 vote per state and that is 27 vs 23 so Trump would be re-elected.
The chances of that happening are vanishly small. If Trump wins it is 100x more likely he simply wins the way every President seeking re-election wins and that is by getting 270 or more EV.
getagrip_already
(14,646 posts)Statistical
(19,264 posts)My guess is it would go the Supreme Court.
That being said this is an incredibly low probability. Get Biden 270 EV and he is President. Done. Congress has no vote to make.
getagrip_already
(14,646 posts)But it's an interesting question. Can scotus compel the house to hold a vote? I doubt it. But would the dems push it far enough to find out?
honest.abe
(8,616 posts)That is very very unlikely.
sl8
(13,678 posts)Like this?
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/09/pelosi-makes-plans-for-house-election-of-president.html
SEPT. 28, 2020
Pelosi Makes Plans for House Election of President
By Ed Kilgore
This news may not be surprising to those who have been paying attention to the abundant speculation about a contested presidential election leading to chaos in and beyond the Electoral College, with Congress (or the Supreme Court) having to grapple with competing slates of electors thanks to a slow count and the presidents incessant efforts to delegitimize voting by mail. But one possible endgame is that the Electoral College system may fail, either because of a tie vote or the inability to chose electors at all in disputed states, throwing the election to the U.S. House per the contingent procedures laid out in the 12th Amendment. And Speaker Nancy Pelosi is already focusing on reversing a current Republican advantage if that comes to pass, as Politico reports:
Under that scenario every states delegation gets a single vote. Who receives that vote is determined by an internal tally of each lawmaker in the delegation. This means the presidency may not be decided by the party that controls the House itself but by the one that controls more state delegations in the chamber. And right now, Republicans control 26 delegations to Democrats 22, with Pennsylvania tied and Michigan a 7-6 plurality for Democrats, with a 14th seat held by independent Justin Amash.
Pelosi, in a Sunday letter to House Democrats, urged them to consider whether the House might be pulled into deciding who is president when determining where to focus resources on winning seats in November. This could lead to more concerted efforts by Democrats to win in states such as Montana and Alaska typically Republican turf but where Democrats have been competitive statewide. In these states, Democratic victories could flip an entire delegation with a single upset House victory.
[...]
exboyfil
(17,862 posts)then the House decides the President. Each state gets one vote, and it is based upon the votes of the majority of the House members of each state (for example a state with four Reps votes 2-2 then that vote does not count). The candidate has to reach 26 states to win. They keep going until a President is selected.
The Senate is voting for the Vice President, and the winner has to have 51 votes. You could end up with Trump-Harris for example.
lapfog_1
(29,193 posts)The state legislatures decide on the slate of electors for that state who will actually vote for President in December. Generally speaking they certify the slate based on "winner takes all" of the popular vote in their state... but they don't have to do that. Maine and Nebraska are exceptions as they can split the slate if one candidate wins a congressional district and another wins in the other congressional district.
However, the legislatures could, theoretically, pick the slate of electors and ignore the outcome of the vote. We will probably see this happen in at least one swing state where Trump is ahead in the popular vote on election day but Biden wins when all the mail in ballots are counted. Court challenges to the legislature picking Trumps slate even though Biden wins the popular vote total a few days or week after Nov 3 will ensue and likely head straight to the Supreme Court... which is why Trump wants his pick seated on election day or just after.
If the Electoral College cannot vote in December (either because it is a tie vote or because the slates of electors are not seated), the Presidential Election goes to the House (and I think the Senate too). However, each STATE gets 1 vote in the House... so this favors republican states, i.e. states where their delegations of republicans outnumber the democrats.
Should this happen, I think there would be absolute chaos... national strikes, protests and counter protests and "Proud Boys no longer standing by"
My plan... and our plan, should be to cast ballots in person and before the election day... as soon as early voting opens but after the lines thin a little to avoid pandemic. Skip the mail in ballot idea. Trump has already destroyed the post offices ability to deliver mail in ballots on time (destroying the sorting machines)... if on election day the votes are clearly in Biden's favor... the repukes in the state legislatures would be hard pressed to overturn the will of the people and install their slate of Trump electors.
LiberalFighter
(50,789 posts)The process...
Voters in the primaries elect state convention delegates. If they have a Republican primary ballot they elect state convention delegates for the Republican state convention. If they have a Democratic primary ballot they elect state convention delegates for the Democratic state convention.
State convention delegates at their respective party's state convention elect electoral voters from their respective congressional district and for their 2 state-wide electoral voters.
Each party has a slate of electoral voters. The electoral voters for the winning candidate get to the vote and those of the losing candidate stay home.