Jobless claims show sharp improvement

[ProSense]

Jobless claims show sharp improvement

By Steve Benen

The initial unemployment claims have been pretty discouraging in August and September, making the new report from the Department of Labor a breath of fresh air.

Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits dropped 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 359,000 in the week ended Sept. 22, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the lowest level since late July. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected claims to fall to 375,000. Initial claims from two weeks ago were revised up 385,000 from an original reading of 382,000, based on more complete data collected at the state level. The average of new claims over the past month, meanwhile, declined by 4,000 to 374,000.

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In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are being created rather quickly. We've only managed to dip below the 370,000 threshold eight times in the last 25 weeks, but we've dipped below 370,000 in seven of the last 12 weeks.

And with that, here's the chart showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.



http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/09/27/14123436-jobless-claims-show-sharp-improvement

[DCBob]

1. I like that graph.

never seen it before.

[HereSince1628]

2. Looks good over nearly 4 years...but...

Honestly, it looks like the "sharp drop" over the last 12 weeks hasn't exceeded the average amount of 'noise' during that 4 yrs.

The story remains...the r's worked very hard to stymy a recovery in hopes of stopping Obama. They've been working especially hard in 2012 to create uncertainty among consumers.

[ProSense]

3. It isn't working

"The story remains...the r's worked very hard to stymy a recovery in hopes of stopping Obama. They've been working especially hard in 2012 to create uncertainty among consumers. "

Republicans have been exposed, maybe by the events of the last several weeks.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Jumps To Highest Level Since February

U.S. consumer confidence is at its highest level since February, the Associated Press reports:

The Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 70.3. That’s up from 61.3 in August, which was revised higher. And it’s the highest reading since February, when the economy added 259,000 jobs

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/us-consumer-confidence-jumps-to-highest-level-since

Gallup: Economic Confidence Spikes
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021303276

[HereSince1628]

4. I hope it stays so until the election

"up from 61.3 in August, which was revised higher. And it’s the highest reading since February"

To me, it all seems to remain within the limits of this years variations.

[ProSense]

5. Why, do you think if the next

report (due out about four weeks from now) shows a little dip, it's going to impact the election?

[HereSince1628]

6. A dip in unemployment from here might go below the Bollinger bands for the year

That could make a story lede that say's unemployment claims lowest in over a year. I do believe that would be good for Obama.

The weather has remained a double edged sword...good, for construction, but bad for crops. I expect fall transport/shipping demand to be lower than usual. Such countering forces will impact the guesswork for weighting the seasonal adjustments. I think in an overall positive, but small way.

I expect the real unemployment numbers to change only very slightly for Oct. I also expect to read about dueling claims for next month's unemployment claims numbers as the political camps argue using different seasonal adjustments and/or different year to year comparisons

[DCBob]

7. I think it might drop into the 7's.. maybe 7.9 or 7.8.

That would have a major psychological impact on the general preception that its going down.

[HereSince1628]

8. I hope you are right. n/t