Paul Krugman- Not The Election They Were Expecting

[n2doc]

A brief, mostly subjective note: This really isn’t looking like the election anyone expected. Obviously it’s not the election Romney and the Republicans expected and wanted; but it’s also looking very different from what Democrats expected.

What Romney & Co. expected was a simple rejection of Obama because of the weak economy. As Greg Sargent often reminds us, this isn’t how it has played at all. On one side, voters tend to react to recent trends, not the absolute level — and the economy has gotten better in some ways over the past year, though obviously not by a lot. On the other, people do remember the crisis of 2008, which they still blame on Bush, and remain willing to cut Obama substantial slack.

But as the polls move strongly in Obama’s direction (yes, I know, it’s all a liberal conspiracy that somehow even includes Fox News), it’s clear at least to me that there’s more going on.

The conventional wisdom — which I too bought into — was that Democrats were going to support Obama, but grudgingly and without much enthusiasm. There had been too many disappointments; the golden aura of 2008 was long gone. Meanwhile, Republicans would show their usual unity and discipline, and at best it would be Obama by a nose.

Instead, the Republicans appear to be in a shambles — while the Democrats seem incredibly united, and increasingly, dare I say it, enthusiastic. (Mark Blumenthal sees this in the polls, but it’s also just the impression you get.)

more

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/27/not-the-election-they-were-expecting/

[bemildred]

1. It looks like what I expected. 2008 was not a fluke. 2010 was. nt

[porphyrian]

2. . n/t

[JDPriestly]

3. The Republicans never apologized to the American people

for the economic crisis

more specifically, for the mortgage crisis,

for the war in which we were the aggressors,

for the torture,

for the eavesdropping on ordinary Americans,

for the wasteful spending coinciding with tax cuts mostly for the rich,

for the abuse of our justice system for their partisan purposes,

for the damage to education that No Child Left Behind has, yes, left behind,

for Bush's failure to get along with foreign leaders,

for Bush himself,

for the stolen election in 2000 and the obstruction of voting in 2004.

The Republicans have not apologized, and Americans have not forgotten.

That's what I find when I go out and talk to voters.

[cbdo2007]

6. Exactly. They have to admit their mistakes before they can move forward.

Just like any addict - the first step is admitting you have a problem.

[Bake]

4. I'm fired up! Ready to go! Are you?

No enthusiasm gap here!

Bake

[Sekhmets Daughter]

5. I've been giving this some thought myself

over the past few days. I've concluded that we are in the end days of a "conservative cycle" that began with the Nixon "southern strategy" and took off during the Reagan years. Tax cuts to "starve the beast" of government, a continual "government is the problem" meme...and all the rest. Legalized abortion gave the Republicans a much needed tool to consolidate the electorate behind their "small government" bullshit. It was particularly successful because it drew Catholics as well as evangelicals into the Republican fold. But just as the Tea Party may prove to be a Frankenstein monster for the GOP, the anti-choice message is driving women back into the Democratic fold...the Bride of Frankenstein, if you will. I think our politics are cyclical...From FDR until Nixon we had a center left electorate.... Then the Civil Rights Legislation caused white southern Democrats to bolt to the GOP...legalized abortion was the "over-reach of the Dems....much of the country was not yet ready for it. So after 40 years of a country being dragged to the right, the conservatives have finally over-reached themselves. Campaigning on jobs in 2010, they have blocked every jobs bill and gone after reproductive rights and women...meanwhile women, and the men who love and RESPECT them, have embraced the right to choose their own destiny and are saying NO to the conservative agenda.

Some have speculated that if re-elected Obama may prove to be a transformative president is the same way (but opposite direction) as was Reagan. If he can keep the country moving left and if Hillary runs in 2016 it could be the first time we've enjoyed Democratic control of the WH for more than 8 years since the 20 years with FDR and Truman.

Am I dreaming?

[Cary]

9. What is the point of this 40 days out from the election?

As Paul Krugman said, it's looking very much like WE, THE PEOPLE are rejecting the whole "conservative" package. We are on the verge here of a great victory and some much needed "conservative" demoralization.

Give President Obama a solid victory, with a real majority (not blue dogs) in the Senate. Then see what you get. I think you might be surprised.

[MineralMan]

11. That poster has left the building, under escort.

He or she disrupted poorly.

[Cary]

12. Thanks for the news MM

I figured but also thought the message needed to be shot down.

My, how things have changed here! I'm happy.

[gopiscrap]

8. The two biggest factors so far I feel are:

1) the contrast between the Republican hate fest and the Democratic Conventions

2) the 47% tape

[Cary]

10. "Conservative" comeuppance, my friends.

"Conservative" comeuppance.