I wouldn't compare presidential races with senate and gubernatorial races. They're a completely different animal to poll.

The fact is, going back to 2004, the candidate leading in the RCP average on election day in Florida has won the state in every election except 2012. I'd say getting it right in 2004, 2008 and 2016 is pretty good.

Rule of Claw

(500 posts)

2. FL has four main blocks of turnout.

Reply to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 08:39 PM

Oct 2020

1. Panhandle. Redneck Riviera. Easy to project

2. Jacksonville. Easy to project.

3. Central corridor. Swingy to project. Transient population and difficult to declare trends with.

4. Miami-Dade. One of the most difficult areas of the country to model. Extremely diverse with pockets of traditionalism.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)

4. African Americans underperformed in several key states in 2016.

Reply to Rule of Claw (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 09:05 PM

Oct 2020

We now know that Russian and republican ratfucking sites that African Americans visited may have had something to do with that.

Yavin4

(35,423 posts)

3. Florida is corrupt to its core.

Reply to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 08:41 PM

Oct 2020

They have a well known history of fudging numbers from Bush/Gore to covid-19. Never trust anything out of FLA.

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

5. You forgot to say it's all about turnout

Reply to Yavin4 (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 09:12 PM

Oct 2020

That's the typical blather

Florida is easily the most consistent swing state in the country. Anyone who actually pays attention understands that full well. The ideology moves parallel to the nation but just slightly right. Consequently the presidential vote is always a few points right of the national number. No other state in the country is anywhere near that reliable in both categories. Midterms are more right leaning because the electorate is older, whiter and more conservative. But again, it is extremely logical and therefore predictable.

Democratic primary voters made a moronic choice with Andrew Gillum above Gwen Graham. That impacted preference, which is always the deciding factor in elections. Gillum exploded socialism fear throughout the state, and that variable took down Nelson in the senate race, as Cubans got scared and changed their preference away from Democrats.

For anyone who is not gripped by simplistic cynicism, here is a terrific recent analysis of the entire state of Florida, looking to the 2020 outcome, from Steve Schale the expert on Florida voting tendencies:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2020/9/14/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-florida-but-were-afraid.html

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