What is your sense of how this will end?
Joe is elected and there is a normal transition?
Joe is elected, and the election result is challenged in court?
Joe is elected. The President resigns so the VP can issue a blanket pardon before Joe takes office (for only the Federal charges, I should note)?
The President is re-elected?
Joe wins, but the President moves to invalidate the election through non-judicial means?
My best guess:
- I think Joe will win. I think the win will not be a "landslide" but will be convincing enough. (~300-350 EV)
- There will be a lot of bluster from the President, but he will leave. I think that's especially the case if there is neither a Senate nor House GOP majority coming in.
- I think he has no interest in a transition, and will turn over to Pence in exchange for a pardon. Otherwise, I expect him to golf for two months. I suspect he will leave the WH for good on 11/4 and head to Florida.
- The ex-President will immediately move into the conservative media business. He knows TV, and it's a sure-fire moneymaker for him.
I believe Biden will win convincingly enough that everyone will understand what happened except Trumpy Bear who will go full scorched earth after a whole lot of lawsuits to overturn the results.
listening devices , and because of trump, i bet the secret service will have to drag him out kicking and screaming with scratch marks on that desk.
He's going to go scorched earth, a la Hitler in the bunker, and try to hurt as many people as he can, while he can.
I do not trust SCOTUS to enforce the constitution and stay out of it, I expect they will go along unless it is a wipeout. If it's even within a 1-5 percentage points (which is a ton of votes) I think they will invalidate the constitution and install their chosen fascist dictator claiming they accept the AG and President's claim of voter fraud and think the 1-2 examples given (if any even are) are sufficient proof.
I know this is extreme, but when has drumpf even been guided by right or morals or ethics or norms - never. A lot of the repug party, and I believe at least 5 SCOTUS are the same evil creatures who think that creating a religious fascist country is the greater good.
I doubt he believes he'll ever be arrested and prosecuted, for anything, anywhere. I think he fully expects to remain a free man no matter what happens.
The motivation for causing harm will be similar, though. Biden is the enemy and Trump will want to leave him with nothing to work with, nothing to save. He'll rationalize that his supporters didn't fight hard enough to get him re-elected, so fuck them, they deserve to suffer. The whole country deserves to suffer for rejecting him.
Trump will rate at most a one sentence footnote in the history books.
I don't really care how he gets removed from the White House, as long as he's gone.
There's a normal transition, except Trump won't be at the swearing-in ceremony.
January 21st, we'll hear the Reaganesque revelation of Trump's mental illnesses that we've been observing since the escalator ride to hell in 2015. Mike Pence's new show on FOX will air at 11 pm to assist those with insomnia.
2021's Word of the Year will be "indictment".
Trump doesn't know any more about television than he knew about casinos or steaks or air shuttles. He'll have a guaranteed audience, at least to begin with, so maybe he can promise Mark Burnett enough to get him on board, but I doubt Burnett will want to renew the association. Trump is a sicko with no political or business sense. There can be no denying that now. No reputable, employable person will want anything to do with him. If he avoids jail, he's doomed working with Russians oligarchs and other gangsters.
Just a guess.
A syndicated cable of radio show could generate considerable cash flow, and help to set his kids up for a future run.
Even if he resigns and Pence pardons him, Trump is looking at a truckload of state charges and therefore has nothing to lose. Remember too that Trump has $900 million in loans coming due in the next couple of years that he probably cannot pay.
Trump has a reputation for being a quitter and running businesses into the ground. I think he will walk away, but of course will take no responsibility. He will blame the media, the Democrats, and Hillary for his defeat, but will say that it wasn't his fault that he lost. He will say that the country doesn't "deserve" him as President, not realizing the irony of that statement.
He will NOT gracefully retire and fade away. He will be the ultimate 'sore loser' and will be tweeting up a storm for years. He MAY go into conservative media, and may try to fracture the Republican party so that his loser children can run for office.
in the swing states just as in 2016. I think Trump has many people that won't admit they are voting for him
I think that because of the number of Trump people and their enthusiasm in Eastern Ohio, western PA and WV.. If you saw what I see every day you would be worried to.
But I'm not calling you nuts for stating that, either.
It scares me to death.
flags. I go shopping that's all I see. This aftermoon I will sit on the porch and have a beer and see a dozen trucks pass with Trump flags. I see people with those damn flags on the bike trail. Even tug boats on the river are flying them.
In this article, Biden does lead, but by a much closer margin than polling indicates.
Flip side: 1) there is not the undercurrent of visceral dislike of Joe that Hillary Clinton suffered and 2) there's the same intensity of enthusiasm for Joe, but there is plenty against Trump.
are just trying to create a horse race. In all polls,Biden has a significant lead. Barring some huge bad revelation about Biden, Trump is going to lose badly.
They had Hillary with a 3-4% lead. She ended up winning the popular vote by a few million, so the polls weren't that far off. In addition to that, polls have adjusted this time to compensate for some mistakes in 2016. This election is a whole different ball game than 4 years ago.
Now, I'm not saying Kate Bolz will win, but NE 1 is generally regarded as safe Republican, and encompasses Lincoln, South Sioux City, and part of central Nebraska. Farm country largely. But Jeff Fortenberry has had to run advertising to defend that seat
A difference I notice in the polling compared to 2016, is Hillary had big leads, but in most states she was only polling in the 44 to 46 range, while Trump would be in the 35 to 40 range. Meaning, there was a lot of undecideds out there, who mostly broke for Trump. The polling this time around is showing Biden at 50 percent or better. There aren't as many undecideds as compared to 2016.
That would tend to hurt the incumbent in a re-election bid, as those undecided voters that go to the polls tend to break for the incumbent. "Undecided" voters tend to ultimately go with the status quo.
Also largely absent this time - lefty voters either crossing over to vote for Trump or voting for Jill Stein or writing in Bernie.
I see more local race signs (Congress, State House, etc.). Very few bumper stickers for either candidate. About once a day, I see a pickup with a Trump flag.
My sense is that the Trump signs & flags are conservatives flipping off their non-Trump supporting neighbors. I think more people on both sides just don't want to deal with the grief related to showing support for one side or the other.
Far less Trump signs. The polls aren't going to be that far off. Plus, Bidens over 50% in most polls. That's huge.
I live in SE Michigan.
I saw tons of Trump signs, flags, banners, etc. Honestly? The sheer number of pieces of paraphernalia on each (widely spaced) piece of land made it appear that there are more Trump supporting people than there actually are. I was also impressed by (and my heart went out to) the brave souls who put Biden/Harris signs out there. After last weekend I am more convinced than ever that Trumpism is just another way of saying white supremacy.
And to flip what you said, I found myself wondering who, among those with no signs on display at all, is going to quietly press the lever for Biden.
Trump is not adding new voters, at least not in overwhelming numbers. The sheer numbers of people who have already voted tells me that Trump weariness has set in and the people are DONE.
With all that said, I am prepared for another 4 years of Trump. It's horrible to contemplate but I can't allow myself to hope.
the tri state area Ohio, PA and WV for over a year. From what you see here it looks bad for Biden. But I have no idea if there are enough votes in the urban areas to offset the Trump people here. I hope there is. I think the black vote may save us
It feels different from 2016.
Ohio may go to Trump, but other states may flip to Biden. We simply must vote in overwhelming numbers. I am encouraged by the early voting numbers.
Badly so he burns it down on his way out.
Republicans try to create chaos in courts and pandemic until Jan 20. All military officers support Biden the new president.
Coward that he really is,Trump sneaks out the back door with substantial WH property. Cowards try a few pathetic stunts.
Will not go to inauguration.
Will cry and whine for years. Hopefully from a jail cell.
I think Trump may try contesting the results some, but I think more than anything, he'll try to rile up what's left of his base by saying the election process was rigged and it was stolen from him. He'll try to get the base to do his destruction for him.
I think there are many in government positions that will not go along with certain things after Trump is declared the loser, but he has his proud boys standing by.
If it ends up in the supreme court Trump wins there.
We need to be prepared for that. If it happens we all need to stop work, stop staying home, and get out in the streets.
Then takes over for Rush, so he can hear the praise he so badly has to receive.
I don't see him doing 3-4 hours a day. Don Jr. will get the heavy lifting - but he will appear frequently enough.
that I would be beaten to death by fascists in my old age, but for about forty years I've been trying to balance (1) maintaining a healthy paranoia against (2) the importance of living life as if change for the better were possible. Excessive hope or fear is folly
Bought his first Vanguard LP in 1966, just before he passed away. He remains a treasure.
Thanks for the good medicine.
He'll then proceed to set up a media empire and bill himself as a the "true" president.
I rate you somewhere near genius level.
Trump will make legal challenges likely in many states. They largely will go nowhere. When it is all done Biden will win the EC with 300+ EV and become the Pres elect. Trump will remain in office until inauguration day. Normal transfer of power despite a lot of bluster by Trump for the next couple months. Trump won't attend the inauguration or welcome Biden to the White House. Trump will do ever mean spiriting thing possible between election day and inauguration day that he can be executive order. The Trump administration will not help with the transition at all but the Biden team will be staffed with experienced professionals and hit the ground running.
Optimistic - Trump loses, but continues to be a gnat on Twitter. The Democrats take back the House and Senate. Trump tweets daily about how unfair and rigged the election was, and does his best (with Russias help) to start a revolt.
Pessimist - Biden wins both the electoral college and popular vote, but Trump wins by either using the Supreme Court or through faithless electors. There is a lot of funny business, and Trump is elected in a Putinesque win. The American people are livid, but no one with power cares.
Constitutional scholar Laurence Tribe explained why in an article posted here a while back.
Joe takes active measures to curb the virus.
MAGATs complain and complain.
By March we finally see the numbers decline.
By June, an effective vaccine is discovered. Shows promise.
By September, there's a rollout.
There's resistance and technical problems, but by October we see a rapid decline.
By November, restrictions start lifting. Families can have Thanksgiving.
By December, remaining restrictions are lifted and everything is back to normal.
By February 2022, global travel is restored.
By August 2022, the media starts complaining about the budget deficit, and the Republicans re-take the House because the economic recovery is too slow and the deficit is too large.
By 2024, Biden is looking at a dog fight for a 2nd term against Ben Sasse or Tom Cotton or, if MAGATs are still around, Tucker Carlson.
I cannot allow myself to entertain basking in the warm glow of a certain Biden/Harris victory, even though I feel its on the way.
The zealousness of 45s cult is something we havent seen before millions of Americans simply releasing their grasp on reality, wrongly perceiving a 5-star train wreck as being good for the country.
Over the past four years, Ive completely lost faith in my non-Democratic fellow-country-people to do whats good, healthy and best for all. They wont even work together to minimize and contain a viral pandemic. Its a cult of ME.
As Election Day nears and arrives, one can feel the raw psychopathology building up pressure, like seismic plates pushing against one another. Hopefully, not on a large scale, but that pressure will seek release, which equates to violent behavior. And who knows when/where/how it will take place?
ways direct and indirect, this is an important part of a bid by oligarchs, .1%, and autocrats both foreign and domestic to implement strategies developed over decades.
Trillions are on the line, but not just trillions. Power. Hierarchy. Generational status.
Have to hope for a true and well-defended landslide to hopefully overcome the weight of TPTB putting their be-jeweled thumbs on the scale in some fashion and I bet their participation goes well beyond fake social media accounts and sneaking money through the NRA or secret Chinese accounts.
So which of the pathways described in the thread fits into the bigger picture the most easily and most effectively?
him for the rest of his term. Trump will resurface as a Fox News pundit next spring.
Biden will win HUGELY!! NOW i don't know about the CHEATING though. Hope the assholes DO NOT succeed!
There's going to be something full Roy Cohn, whether's it's Russian interference and/or SCOTUS input
I don't know how to handicap it. We've just got to get to election night and make sure the numbers look logical enough.
That Roy Cohn mentality from the other side is what causes me not to get lulled into expectation of 12 more days of comparative smooth. Ari just had a segment on Russia potentially causing chaos after election day by deleting or freezing voter files of people who voted by mail.