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Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:33 PM

Texas looks like a real possibility.

Given that nearly 9 millions votes were cast and they expect only 1 or 2 millions more on election day, reaching 11 millions total.

If the democrats had the advantage during early voting (lots of young people voted, many first time voters. etc..) it will be very hard for Trump to make that up on election day.

for example, say it was 55-45 on early ballots and 9/11 =80 percent already voted then on election day, in order to reach 50% +1 vote, Joe Biden would only need

(0.5-0.8*0.55)/(1-0.8)=27.5 percent to make it above 50 percent and win.

Even with 51/49 early vote , Biden would only need 45 % on election day.

Roughly, each early vote is worth 4 times the nov 3rd vote (if early vote proportion is 80 %).






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Reply Texas looks like a real possibility. (Original post)
drray23 Oct 2020 OP
Laelth Oct 2020 #1
Proud liberal 80 Oct 2020 #2
winstars Oct 2020 #3
Gothmog Oct 2020 #4

Response to drray23 (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:44 PM

1. 9 million early votes.

I expect 2-3 million more on election day. Trump can not overcome that level of voting. I think Biden will carry TX, but I also think that Hegar will lose to Cornyn. Naturally, I hope I am wrong about the latter prediction.



-Laelth

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 01:44 PM

2. You are looking to deep into it

I like your analysis, but the bottom line is the more people vote the more it favors Democrats, period. I donít need all the fancy numbers to tell me that.

Edit - I did recommend your thread.

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 02:09 PM

3. Today (Friday) is the last day of early voting. Is that correct?

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 02:50 PM

4. The final vote total for Texas could be close to 12 million votes

Michael Li used to have the best election law/redistricting blog in Texas but was hired by the Bennan Center. Michael makes the case for 12 million possible votes in Texas which means that no one has any idea what is going to happen







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