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Sat Oct 31, 2020, 01:26 PM

538 version of what the map would look like if polls are exactly as wrong as in 2016 - Nate Silver




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Reply 538 version of what the map would look like if polls are exactly as wrong as in 2016 - Nate Silver (Original post)
mzmolly Oct 2020 OP
Phoenix61 Oct 2020 #1
Dem2 Oct 2020 #2
wryter2000 Oct 2020 #3
mzmolly Oct 2020 #5
Mike 03 Oct 2020 #4
Bettie Oct 2020 #6
Laelth Oct 2020 #7
central scrutinizer Oct 2020 #8
scipan Nov 2020 #9

Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 01:28 PM

1. That's comforting! nt

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 01:29 PM

2. Now this is good info

Nice to know there's a bit of a cushion.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 01:30 PM

3. Thanks

The polls weren't really that wrong in 2016, at least not as 538 predicted. He had Hillary at 65% on election day, which still left Trump with a 35% chance of winning. That's not insurmountable. Plus, the popular vote came out as predicted.

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Response to wryter2000 (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 01:41 PM

5. Agree.

Though I was certain Hillary would win based upon polling. This does help put things in perspective for the nervous Nellie's among us. Myself included.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 01:36 PM

4. That's amazing.

Florida still goes blue.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 01:44 PM

6. That actually makes me feel a whole lot better

I find it hard to believe he's gained more support over the last four years.

But I am still afraid. PTSD.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 01:46 PM

7. That will do.

I suspect Biden/Harris will do better than that.



-Laelth

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2020, 02:11 PM

8. Yet I got another 300 doom and gloom emails and texts

In the last eight hours pleading for money. “It’s over, we’re packing” “McConnell (Graham, Ernst, Collins....) laughing”, “Biden (Kelly, Bullock, McGrath....) loses”. “300% (400%, 500%, 700%) match.”

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sun Nov 1, 2020, 01:13 PM

9. FL GA and PA 65 votes

Leaves Biden with 270. Still wins.

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