Republican Joni Ernst pulls ahead of Democrat Theresa Greenfield in closing days of U.S. Senate race

[RandySF]

Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst has pulled ahead of Democrat Theresa Greenfield in the closing stretch of a contentious U.S. Senate race, according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

Ernst leads 46% to 42% over Greenfield, the Iowa Poll shows. Another 3% say they plan to vote for someone else, 1% do not plan to vote in the Senate race, 3% are unsure and 4% already voted but did not want to say which candidate they support.

The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines from Oct. 26-29. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

“It's really both a matter of Ernst rising and Greenfield fading a little bit,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “There's sort of an equilibrium in terms of what's happening.”

This is the final 2020 Iowa Poll before the election, and it's the first time Ernst has led in the poll this year.



https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-greenfield-ernst-us-senate-race-voters/6055545002/

[madaboutharry]

1. Nooooo!

[Funtatlaguy]

2. Argh. We need some visits to Iowa by our big guns.

[exboyfil]

6. Biden was at the Iowa State fairgrounds

on Friday.

https://kiwaradio.com/local-news/biden-appears-at-drive-in-rally-on-iowa-state-fairgrounds/

[Funtatlaguy]

14. Send Michelle too.

[kansasobama]

3. That is depressing news

damn

[Jamesyu]

4. Hmm 4% did not say who they voted for

They might have voted for Greeenfield which is a silver lining in this poll.

[ProfessorGAC]

20. Pretty Unlikely To Be All 4%

3 out of 4 would be optimistic, I think.
Still keeps Ernst in the lead.
But, this poll seems to be inside the MOE.
So, it might actually be a dead heat.

[exboyfil]

5. The Trump losing effect?

Erst is running the evil liberals will control everything and trigger their nefarious plan.

I personally would have rolled the dice of attacking Ernst being joined at the hip with Trump (failure to exercise her oversight responsibility). Greenfield is running ads emphasizing Ernst is in the pockets of the evil industrialists. I am not sure that flies in Iowa.

[Alhena]

8. My dad is voting Biden but Republican for Senate

He's pretty conservative- hates Trump but is scared of the "Green New Deal" being enacted.

[exboyfil]

11. Is your dad a AGW denier?

If not, ask him what the solution is (if any)?

[Alhena]

13. Him voting for Biden at all is a victory, he's a lifelong Republican

But realizes what a wretched human being Trump is.

[TwilightZone]

15. Little victories

Are better than no victories.

[dem4decades]

7. Another reason iowa never gets the first caucus.

They don't deserve it, ever again.

[Indykatie]

28. Caucuses Should Be Ended Everywhere

The Dem Primary should NOT start in States that don't mirror the diversity of the party. Its; a f**king insult to the party base and needs to change.

[dem4decades]

36. I agree 100 %, just wanted to trash Iowa for even making this Senate race close.

Drought and locust on them,, if they vote Ernst in again

[NorthOf270]

37. Joe Biden is probably going to lose South Carolina by a lot

How does that jive with the fact the SC primary made his campaign?

Primaries and caucuses as a whole don’t represent a nation.

[DonaldsRump]

9. What rating does the DMR poll have?

[Funtatlaguy]

12. Unfortunately, I think it's considered the best.

[DonaldsRump]

22. Thank you! But it's ok

It's either within or very close to the MoE and there are some undecided.

Unless IA is totally racist, I would hope that a Joe/Kamala landslide around the country would help in a RELATIVELY ok state like Iowa.

I refuse to believe that Iowans, or Americans in general, are that bad. Nothing will surprise me anymore, but I am more than cautiously optimistic.

[Thekaspervote]

24. FYI: they did not correctly call the last 2 dem primaries..just sayin

I really bet it will come down to the wire. Remember it was days b4 they called the dem primary for HRC

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Bad news but plenty of undecideds

That's a Hillary-type lead, 46-42. If Greenfield trails I'm glad it's 46-42 and not 51-47

[triron]

16. Very hard to believe based on early vote in Iowa. Dems have outvoted pukes by more than 125 K.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/IA.html

[Yavin4]

17. When an incumbent is under 50%, the race is a toss-up.

There's still hope in Iowa for the senate.

[3catwoman3]

18. 814 is a pretty small sample size.

I have no more idea if people who respond to polls tell the truth anymore than my teenage patients do when I ask them about drugs, alcohol, tobacco and sex.

[octoberlib]

19. Meh. It's one poll . And didn't Nate Silver say that all polls 2 weeks before an election are

nothing but noise?

[Thekaspervote]

26. Looking just now at 538 greenfield has a 54% chance of winning

And yes silver did say polls coming out this close to the election are not the best indicators

[octoberlib]

29. He just tweeted and implied it's an outlier.

Link to tweet

?s=20

[progree]

35. I just checked - 50% now, uggh. Glad I picked this one to place all my chips on

in late September. At that time 538 had Ernst with a 53% chance of winning, but it was the closest Senate race except for one.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/iowa/

The page also shows several polls

Update: it's 50% now as of 10/31 1053 PM ET. When I first posted this, it was 51% in favor of Greenfield

(set your clocks back tonight!)

[sunonmars]

21. lots of ifs and ands buts in this poll and Seltzer doesn't sound all that convinced who'd win

[Thekaspervote]

27. To me, IA is like FL..who the F knows!!

[sunonmars]

30. the swings are huge in this poll, makes no sense, something is off.

[tormadjax]

23. Nooooo! n/t

[ananda]

25. I've been seeing this trend for awhile now.

That's why I'm so worried.

[triron]

31. Hell of a lot more thaan 4% have already voted. Something very wrong with this poll.

[a kennedy]

32. DAMN, DAMN, DAMN.

[Sogo]

33. Those numbers are within the margin of error,

which means it’s a statistical tie. It still comes down to getting out the vote.

Polls suck in that way, because people don’t understand, and can be influenced to stay home, because “their vote won’t matter....”

[vercetti2021]

34. Can this cost us the senate?

Just curious

[tblue37]

38. An appropriate narrative is needed to justify the theft.

[Roland99]

39. Trash poll. Don't buy it. Seriously

[Renew Deal]

40. That's only 88%. Where did the other 12% go?