I don't believe the DMR/Selzer poll. Too much of a swing by independents in one month.

[highplainsdem]

See the DMR story:


https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-president-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden/6061937002/

But Trump has regained an edge with those who identify as independents — a bloc key to his 2016 win in Iowa. According to National Election Pool exit polling published by CNN, independent voters favored Trump 51% to 38% over Democrat Hillary Clinton that year.

In the Register’s September Iowa Poll, Biden led with independents 50% to 38%. But today, Trump wins them back and leads 49% to 35%.

“I think that the key to what's happening with President Trump is that he is leading with independents,” Selzer said. “That is a group that in Iowa in our September poll looked like it was swinging to Joe Biden, and it's come back to be a Trump asset.”

I think Iowa will be very close. But I don't see ANY reason why it would have gone from a tie a month ago to a 7-point Trump lead now.

[exboyfil]

1. I hope so

That poll was very accurate last time. I think Trump/Ernst are outspending Biden/Greenfield in the ads which I see (I only watch regular tv during NFL games, otherwise it is Hulu ads or Youtube ads). I don't know if we are spending enough on Hulu or Youtube.

[LizBeth]

2. I agree. I will believe it when I see it and then probably figure there was playing going on.

[rso]

3. Iowa

Yeah, seems inaccurate.

[Thekaspervote]

7. They did not correctly predict the dem primary in 16 or this year

[Just_Vote_Dem]

4. I don't buy it either

As it's only 6 electoral votes, I'm not panicking.

[PTWB]

6. You're confusing independents and undecideds.

They’re very different groups.

[Jamesyu]

8. Weird thing is they are the only poll in Iowa

That shows Trump with a wide lead in Iowa, I remember in 2016 a lot more polls agreed with them like Manmouth and NBC also had Trump +8 and 7 which are also A + polls. This time they are + 3 and tied so who knows who is right.

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

9. It's either the only truly accurate poll in any state or indeed nationwide in 2020

Or they’ve gotten a funky sample and therefore an odd result this time around.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Trump approval did rise among independents according to Gallup

41 in recent national poll October 15-27 as opposed to 35 in prior poll September 30-October 14

What the hell happened? Independents were always going to decide this thing

I noted the switch from 35 to 41 but assumed it was still low enough

[Tribetime]

11. You have to average the polls out😊

[highplainsdem]

12. I'm checking Twitter and finding LOTS of people agreeing with me that this poll seems off.

And not just because of independents. Selzer found an unexplained percentage of women moving back to Trump from Biden, in just one month.

A small sampling:

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Thekaspervote]

14. Have to agree. all the best pollsters, 538, the Economist, Cook Political agree

This has been the single most stable race in political history. Why would IA suddenly swing so wildly?

Does anyone but me remember how wildly the polls swung in IA during the primary? Biden would be up by 5 then down by 7.

The DMR did not correctly call the last 2 dem prez primaries.

[Fiendish Thingy]

13. Isn't DMR supposed to be the gold standard for IA polls? Nt

[PTWB]

15. Selzer is DMR's pollster and she is indeed the gold standard.

538 has called her the best pollster in the country. She made her name predicting Obama to win the caucus in 2008.

That said, even the best of the best pollsters can and do make mistakes and have outliers. That’s one of the reasons they’re the best - they don’t ever put their thumb on the scale.

This poll isn’t guaranteed to be accurate but there is just no way to spin it as anything but horrible news.

[Indykatie]

16. We All Should Chill. IA is a Tier 3 State and Not Critical to Biden's Path to 270.

Why are so many people freaking out about a single bad Iowa poll? We Dems can't help but elevate mole hills into mountains sometimes. The Media and pundits are hyping the IA poll like its the end all be all for Biden and it aint. Same applies to FL and the Miami/Dade Hispanic vote.