General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsRelax more from Nate Silver
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Replying to
@NateSilver538
We've gotten a lot of data, most of it very recent. 91 million people have already voted. There's no October surprise unless you want to count the latest COVID spike, which isn't good news for Trump. Trump can win but there's not much indication of a last-minute surge toward him.
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)Whatever happened to its one poll? We were never going to win IA
Sogo
(4,967 posts)It's one poll.
It doesn't mean we've lost Iowa! ("We were never going to win IA.)
The only poll that matters is the one that takes place in the voting booths!!
LakeArenal
(28,729 posts)PTWB
(4,131 posts)If this was just Iowa it wouldnt be a big deal - the scary part is that it shows a 26 point swing of Independent voters from Biden to Trump in a month. This isnt some shitty partisan pollster - this is one of the best in the country.
538 has called Selzer the very best, in fact.
This doesnt mean shes right - even the best do get it wrong and there are outliers from time to time - but you cant spin it as anything but bad news.
We need the NPA voters to break for Biden. If this foreshadows a trend that hasnt been picked up by the other pollsters it will make 2016 seem like a boring election night.
Sugarcoated
(7,707 posts)cry baby
(6,682 posts)SheltieLover
(57,073 posts)getagrip_already
(14,250 posts)The surge of younger never voted befores, the breaking of unlikely indies to biden, the breaking in the suburbs to biden, higher levels of voting, all contribute to an underpolling error in favor of trump.
The media wants a horserace and people to stay tuned in watching ads and clicking headlines. It's what they do.
Unfortunately it has the effect of turning out trump supporters. But, there won't be enough of them.
a kennedy
(29,467 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)Its Iowa. Its never been a significant part of any strategy. Biden doesnt need it to win.