Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

gabeana

(3,166 posts)
Sat Oct 31, 2020, 09:05 PM Oct 2020

Relax more from Nate Silver

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Replying to
@NateSilver538
We've gotten a lot of data, most of it very recent. 91 million people have already voted. There's no October surprise unless you want to count the latest COVID spike, which isn't good news for Trump. Trump can win but there's not much indication of a last-minute surge toward him.

11 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Relax more from Nate Silver (Original Post) gabeana Oct 2020 OP
Thank you for the voice of sanity!! There isn't much here tonight with IA poll Thekaspervote Oct 2020 #1
You just contradicted yourself. Sogo Oct 2020 #3
We are soo close now. I'm ready. ❣️🇺🇸❣️ LakeArenal Oct 2020 #4
We've won Iowa plenty in recent elections. PTWB Oct 2020 #7
Foolish to get uptight about one poll Sugarcoated Nov 2020 #11
If I could, I'd rec this 1000 times. nt cry baby Oct 2020 #2
K&R! SheltieLover Oct 2020 #5
yeah, if anything, polling error has been in trumps favor - not joe's.... getagrip_already Oct 2020 #6
So, sorry, SO THEN WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON IN IOWA.?? a kennedy Oct 2020 #8
Who cares? Codeine Oct 2020 #10
Trump Can Win Doesn't Make Me Relax Me. Oct 2020 #9

Thekaspervote

(32,606 posts)
1. Thank you for the voice of sanity!! There isn't much here tonight with IA poll
Sat Oct 31, 2020, 09:07 PM
Oct 2020

Whatever happened to it’s one poll? We were never going to win IA

Sogo

(4,967 posts)
3. You just contradicted yourself.
Sat Oct 31, 2020, 09:10 PM
Oct 2020

It's one poll.

It doesn't mean we've lost Iowa! ("We were never going to win IA.)


The only poll that matters is the one that takes place in the voting booths!!

 

PTWB

(4,131 posts)
7. We've won Iowa plenty in recent elections.
Sat Oct 31, 2020, 09:14 PM
Oct 2020

If this was “just Iowa” it wouldn’t be a big deal - the scary part is that it shows a 26 point swing of Independent voters from Biden to Trump in a month. This isn’t some shitty partisan pollster - this is one of the best in the country.

538 has called Selzer the very best, in fact.

This doesn’t mean she’s right - even the best do get it wrong and there are outliers from time to time - but you can’t spin it as anything but bad news.

We need the NPA voters to break for Biden. If this foreshadows a trend that hasn’t been picked up by the other pollsters it will make 2016 seem like a boring election night.

getagrip_already

(14,250 posts)
6. yeah, if anything, polling error has been in trumps favor - not joe's....
Sat Oct 31, 2020, 09:12 PM
Oct 2020

The surge of younger never voted befores, the breaking of unlikely indies to biden, the breaking in the suburbs to biden, higher levels of voting, all contribute to an underpolling error in favor of trump.

The media wants a horserace and people to stay tuned in watching ads and clicking headlines. It's what they do.

Unfortunately it has the effect of turning out trump supporters. But, there won't be enough of them.

 

Codeine

(25,586 posts)
10. Who cares?
Sat Oct 31, 2020, 10:26 PM
Oct 2020

It’s Iowa. It’s never been a significant part of any strategy. Biden doesn’t need it to win.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Relax more from Nate Silv...