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New Battleground State Polls
November 1, 2020 at 5:41 am EST By Taegan Goddard 88 Comments
https://politicalwire.com/2020/11/01/new-battleground-state-polls-32/#disqus_thread
"SNIP.....
From New York Times/Siena:
ARIZONA: Biden 49%, Trump 43%
FLORIDA: Biden 47%, Trump 44%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 49%, Trump 43%
WISCONSIN: Biden 52%, Trump 41%
From ABC News-Washington Post:
FLORIDA: Trump 50%, Biden 48%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 44%
....SNIP"
Demsrule86
(68,348 posts)getagrip_already
(14,248 posts)From wasserman..... Not a poll exactly, but hey.
New: Georgia finishes its early voting period at 3,880,984 votes cast, 95% of its '16 total votes cast. Notable counties surpassing '16 total votes cast:
1. Forsyth +14%
2. Paulding +8%
3. Henry +6%
4. Hall +4%
5. Fulton +2%
6. Gwinnett +1%
getagrip_already
(14,248 posts)Last edited Sun Nov 1, 2020, 11:37 AM - Edit history (1)
This looks like about the laziest poll I've seen this cycle.
Look at the report. They called 900 people via cell phone randomly making no effort to target or report demographics. They diidn't tabulate percentage of r/d/i responding, m/w, w/b/h, etc.
What exactly is this supposed to tell us? That 50% of the people who answered a cell phone support trump? That's helpful.
It is just candy for the media. It's the absolute quickest and cheapest poll they could pull off without going digital.
Sheesh.
EDIT: I missed a couple of points in the report:
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline andcellular telephone interviews Oct. 24-29, 2020, among random samples of 915 Florida registered voters, including 824 likely voters
They also did list the r/d/i ratios, just hidden a bit. Democrats-Republicans-independents are 31-35-29 percent among
registered voters and 31-36-28 percent among likely voters in Florida.
https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a62020StateBattlegrounds-FLPA.pdf
Apologies that.
marble falls
(56,358 posts)getagrip_already
(14,248 posts) This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline andcellular telephone interviews Oct. 24-29, 2020, among random samples of 915 Florida registered voters, including 824 likely voters
They also did list the r/d/i ratios, just hidden a bit. Democrats-Republicans-independents are 31-35-29 percent among
registered voters and 31-36-28 percent among likely voters in Florida.
I'll update the upper post....
Historic NY
(37,449 posts)The Villages have a uptick in infections and deaths..
bucolic_frolic
(42,666 posts)This is not people, for the most part, who work for a living.
getagrip_already
(14,248 posts)You get a lot of retirees and stay at home folks. Yeah, it's a pandemic but most people working from home won't talk to a pollster during the day or even after work.
wishstar
(5,267 posts)hoping some of those undecideds decline to vote if they are Repubs who don't like Trump
paleotn
(17,778 posts)"Are you likely to vote" is a suggestive question. A lot of folks will say yes, even though they know they will probably not get around to it. Few want to admit even to a faceless pollster that they're shirking their civic duty. The rest will probably split down the middle probability wise, thus not changing the spread all that much.
paleotn
(17,778 posts)Maybe some widening in AZ, maybe not. The rest are within the ranges we've seen for weeks. This election is remarkable for its stability. I still think most minds were made up long before 2020.
ananda
(28,782 posts).. some Senate races where Dems were leading and
are now struggling or falling behind.
This upsets me more than anything about Biden.
bucolic_frolic
(42,666 posts)I've always thought IA and FL were not going to happen, and who knows how they count in FL, or if they count.
But AZ + NV + NC would just about seal Trump's fate, without even worrying about PA.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)Which I couldn't find anywhere. Perhaps their ploy is to make it look so close people might get out and vote? Hate that FL # from ABC
edhopper
(33,202 posts)Biden most likely wins if he captures PA.