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applegrove

(118,016 posts)
Sun Nov 1, 2020, 07:39 AM Nov 2020

New Battleground State Polls

New Battleground State Polls

November 1, 2020 at 5:41 am EST By Taegan Goddard 88 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2020/11/01/new-battleground-state-polls-32/#disqus_thread

"SNIP.....

From New York Times/Siena:

ARIZONA: Biden 49%, Trump 43%
FLORIDA: Biden 47%, Trump 44%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 49%, Trump 43%
WISCONSIN: Biden 52%, Trump 41%

From ABC News-Washington Post:

FLORIDA: Trump 50%, Biden 48%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 44%

....SNIP"

15 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
New Battleground State Polls (Original Post) applegrove Nov 2020 OP
Thanks K&R Demsrule86 Nov 2020 #1
GA sweetener... getagrip_already Nov 2020 #2
about that abc fl poll..... getagrip_already Nov 2020 #3
Cell phone only? marble falls Nov 2020 #6
landline and cellular is what the report says - just rechecked....... getagrip_already Nov 2020 #13
Trumps losing voters every day.... Historic NY Nov 2020 #9
They reached people with cell phones on, and able to answer bucolic_frolic Nov 2020 #10
yup.... getagrip_already Nov 2020 #14
7, 8, 9% undecided/uncommitted seems high so late unless some of them actually won't vote wishstar Nov 2020 #4
That's usually the case.... paleotn Nov 2020 #7
Thanks. Not much movement at all. paleotn Nov 2020 #5
Yes, nothing has changed much except for.. ananda Nov 2020 #11
Not much surprising there bucolic_frolic Nov 2020 #8
Just heard rove say RCP avg for AZ was a Biden lead of only 0.6 Laura PourMeADrink Nov 2020 #12
PA is the key edhopper Nov 2020 #15

getagrip_already

(14,248 posts)
2. GA sweetener...
Sun Nov 1, 2020, 09:28 AM
Nov 2020

From wasserman..... Not a poll exactly, but hey.

New: Georgia finishes its early voting period at 3,880,984 votes cast, 95% of its '16 total votes cast. Notable counties surpassing '16 total votes cast:

1. Forsyth +14%
2. Paulding +8%
3. Henry +6%
4. Hall +4%
5. Fulton +2%
6. Gwinnett +1%

getagrip_already

(14,248 posts)
3. about that abc fl poll.....
Sun Nov 1, 2020, 09:34 AM
Nov 2020

Last edited Sun Nov 1, 2020, 11:37 AM - Edit history (1)

This looks like about the laziest poll I've seen this cycle.

Look at the report. They called 900 people via cell phone randomly making no effort to target or report demographics. They diidn't tabulate percentage of r/d/i responding, m/w, w/b/h, etc.

What exactly is this supposed to tell us? That 50% of the people who answered a cell phone support trump? That's helpful.

It is just candy for the media. It's the absolute quickest and cheapest poll they could pull off without going digital.

Sheesh.

EDIT: I missed a couple of points in the report:


– This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline andcellular telephone interviews Oct. 24-29, 2020, among random samples of 915 Florida registered voters, including 824 likely voters

They also did list the r/d/i ratios, just hidden a bit. Democrats-Republicans-independents – are 31-35-29 percent among
registered voters and 31-36-28 percent among likely voters in Florida.

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a62020StateBattlegrounds-FLPA.pdf

Apologies that.

getagrip_already

(14,248 posts)
13. landline and cellular is what the report says - just rechecked.......
Sun Nov 1, 2020, 11:35 AM
Nov 2020

– This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline andcellular telephone interviews Oct. 24-29, 2020, among random samples of 915 Florida registered voters, including 824 likely voters

They also did list the r/d/i ratios, just hidden a bit. Democrats-Republicans-independents – are 31-35-29 percent among
registered voters and 31-36-28 percent among likely voters in Florida.

I'll update the upper post....

bucolic_frolic

(42,666 posts)
10. They reached people with cell phones on, and able to answer
Sun Nov 1, 2020, 10:45 AM
Nov 2020

This is not people, for the most part, who work for a living.

getagrip_already

(14,248 posts)
14. yup....
Sun Nov 1, 2020, 11:40 AM
Nov 2020

You get a lot of retirees and stay at home folks. Yeah, it's a pandemic but most people working from home won't talk to a pollster during the day or even after work.

wishstar

(5,267 posts)
4. 7, 8, 9% undecided/uncommitted seems high so late unless some of them actually won't vote
Sun Nov 1, 2020, 10:04 AM
Nov 2020

hoping some of those undecideds decline to vote if they are Repubs who don't like Trump

paleotn

(17,778 posts)
7. That's usually the case....
Sun Nov 1, 2020, 10:34 AM
Nov 2020

"Are you likely to vote" is a suggestive question. A lot of folks will say yes, even though they know they will probably not get around to it. Few want to admit even to a faceless pollster that they're shirking their civic duty. The rest will probably split down the middle probability wise, thus not changing the spread all that much.

paleotn

(17,778 posts)
5. Thanks. Not much movement at all.
Sun Nov 1, 2020, 10:29 AM
Nov 2020

Maybe some widening in AZ, maybe not. The rest are within the ranges we've seen for weeks. This election is remarkable for its stability. I still think most minds were made up long before 2020.

ananda

(28,782 posts)
11. Yes, nothing has changed much except for..
Sun Nov 1, 2020, 10:46 AM
Nov 2020

.. some Senate races where Dems were leading and
are now struggling or falling behind.

This upsets me more than anything about Biden.

bucolic_frolic

(42,666 posts)
8. Not much surprising there
Sun Nov 1, 2020, 10:43 AM
Nov 2020

I've always thought IA and FL were not going to happen, and who knows how they count in FL, or if they count.

But AZ + NV + NC would just about seal Trump's fate, without even worrying about PA.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
12. Just heard rove say RCP avg for AZ was a Biden lead of only 0.6
Sun Nov 1, 2020, 10:58 AM
Nov 2020

Which I couldn't find anywhere. Perhaps their ploy is to make it look so close people might get out and vote? Hate that FL # from ABC

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