Is (R)asmussen Abandoning Romney Too. It's Obama (D) 49% Romney ($) 47%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[peacebird]

1. Carter was way ahead of Reagan in the polls in 1980, and we know how THAT turned out.....

That is what worries me.

That and systemic voter disenfranchisement by the repukes. And diebold voting machines and no paper trail for recount in most places.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. That's An Urban Myth Propagated By An Over Reliance On One Tracking Poll

http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/08/09/what-really-happened-in-the-1980-presidential-campaign/

[peacebird]

14. Thank you for that! Clearly my memory was inaccurate....

[Hokie]

2. Rasmussen will move to Obama on the final polls

Rasmussen always adjusts the weightings so he can be accurate on the final polls near the election. He showed McCain closer in 2008 that any poll and adjusted at the end. That is the poll that they are graded upon.

[graham4anything]

3. Good old ras needs to at the end be where the actual total is, so he can say he called it

so he can do the same ole same ole in 2016

Ras can't have the final poll be off too much. He needs his to be in the ballpark.

During the run-up he is trying to frame it that Mitt can win, but as it is now impossible for Mitt to win, watch him get accurate as the days go by til election day and then have it just about right on election day, and he can brag he called it right.

I like electoral-vote.com
This year finally they have a seperate page for NON-RAsmussen, which takes out all of their info.
And also shows the senate predictions which Ras shows 2 less than Dems.

[Cicada]

4. Ras will change party ID from R+3 to D+3 Monday

On Sep 1 Ras adjusted his weighting to have more Repubs than Dems, based on his 15000 party ID polls in August. Somehow he alone got more Repubs than Dems is August. He recently said his current party ID measures now have it Dem 39 Repub 36. So if he starts the new weighting Oct 1, which is how he has in the past phased in new party ID weights, on the first of each month, Obama may jump up six points Monday on the Ras tracking poll.

We may have to put Free Republic on suicide watch.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. That Doesn't Make Sense

What if party ID changes during the month of October?

[Jennicut]

10. I know, it seems to make no sense.

I guess he screens for party ID per month and I suppose he will change in November when he gets the voter ID #'s in October.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. It Can Theoretically Change From Day To Day Or Sample To Sample

,

[KharmaTrain]

7. His Job Is To Save Senate & House Seats...

The real problem with the numbers is the Stench has been such a shitty candidate that he's now endangering the rushpublican control of the House and any gains in the Senate. By focusing away from the Presidential, Ras can now function down ballot to try to prop up those races. Many rushpublicans already are set to shove Bishop Willard off the cliff but not the rest of the ticket...while it's important to prop up the top of the ticket, Ras and others are seeing the damage this inept candidate is doing to the rest of the party...

[aaaaaa5a]

8. Not to sound like a right wing conspiracy nut.......... BUT

Is it just me or does (R)asmussen show polls favoring the GOP all through a political race, and then 'suddenly out of thin air" starts producing accurate polls at the very end of the race to safe face?


I watch polls regularly. I swear this is a trend (R)asmussen follows.

[Cicada]

12. Ras does not switch to sane at end

In 2010 he was the least accurate pollster. In the Hawaii senate race he missed the margin of victory by 38 points! At times he has been crazy wrong. In 2008 he happened to get it right. But he is willing to go to press crazy wrong. In 2010 his final generic congressional margin was R+13 (the results were R+6 or 7).

He is locked into a low cost business model - using automated robocalls - not permitted by law to call cell phones. As more folks go cell only it forces RAS to generate some crazy results.

Some other robocall firms seem to cope better with various tricks - like online panels to simulate cell owners (RAS does this too) but it's not a proven technique.

As much as PPP is adorable we have to remember they too are robocallers so watch out.

[ananda]

9. And I add 10 points for Obama just because it's Rasmussen.

[Safetykitten]

13. Nothing to see here, move along. It's in the bag...we think.