Question about calling states with uncounted mail-in votes.

[patricia92243]

Example: A candidate is ahead 20,000 votes and the election people know that there are 5,000 mail-ins not counted. They would know if all 5k went to the other candidate, the guy with 20k would still win. Would that state be able to call their state a winner already.

This is probably clear as mud
It is hard to post what would be easily understood if a person were actually talking.

[exboyfil]

1. I think they even call on voting patterns

For example one candidate is not expected to get more than 2/3rds of the vote (allowing a good buffer). Even during normal elections it can take days to call a state. It just so happens, except for Florida in 2000, it usually doesn't make a difference to the EV. There was another state in question in 2000 (New Mexico at less than 400 votes separating both candidates) that wasn't really contested because it didn't make a difference.

[secondwind]

2. I think this is how it's always been done, no?

“And the projected winner is....”

“We are calling this race for....”

[radius777]

3. The state itself doesn't certify anything until

all the votes are fully counted.

News organizations can 'call' (predict) the state when there is a scenario as you describe. They will know how many outstanding mail-ins there are and what the deadline to receive them is etc and compare this to what is already in.

[Yonnie3]

4. The states don't call winners

The news media makes those calls and would in your hypothetical scenario call the state.

The states each have their own procedures and count all the votes. My state (Virginia) provides a running preliminary vote count as they work through the votes. After they have checked it all they will provide an official count. It is not quick.

[Maeve]

5. Yes. If the difference is greater than the outstanding votes, logic allows them to call it

As noted above, tho, the states don't make the call, the news organizations do. The official tallies won't be certified for days/weeks, according to each state's laws

[beachbumbob]

6. Networks look at all sorts of indicators typically from key counties

and if the metrics are met, they can call out the "presumptive winner". There are only 4 states that do not count mail in ballots until Nov 3rd and a good chance none of those will factor into the outcome at all for the winner to be announced shortly after California polls close.

Ohio and Florida results will be known by 9pm Nov 3rd and if Biden wins either one, its over right then for trump

[Statistical]

7. States don't certify the vote until EVERY SINGLE VOTE IS COUNTED.

They aren't just certifying the winner thy are certifying the final vote count down to the last vote.

That being said the TV networks routinely "call" states well before the last vote being counted.

[brooklynite]

8. States DON'T call their States....

TV Networks and media outlets do, based on their personal analysis of likely outcomes. States count the votes and announce the results when finished.

[Rice4VP]

9. Yes