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David Wasserman (COOK POLITICAL): Biden carries GA, PA, NH, AZ and NC, loses FL, TX, IA (Original Post) brooklynite Nov 2020 OP
That would be absolutely wonderful. honest.abe Nov 2020 #1
I want Biden to win TX and FL, but I'll take that outcome. Marius25 Nov 2020 #2
I'm not ready to throw in the towel or declare victory in any state Tom Rivers Nov 2020 #3
Surpised he thinks GA but not FL. NorthOf270 Nov 2020 #4
Historically, we're programmed to think the opposite Dem2 Nov 2020 #9
I would like FL to go to Biden, if only to keep Trump below the Mendoza line... SKKY Nov 2020 #5
I really want FL to go blue obamanut2012 Nov 2020 #6
I hope your and the Florida Dems' Turin_C3PO Nov 2020 #24
Hope so too. Thanks for all your hard work. It moonscape Nov 2020 #27
That would be great. Because NC, AZ, and GA should be called tomorrow. Claustrum Nov 2020 #7
So tell me, with those 5 States Joe carries........DO THE DEMS TAKE BACK THE SENATE??? a kennedy Nov 2020 #8
I was a naysayer but now I would not call FL out kansasobama Nov 2020 #10
I think Biden will get FL and IA. roamer65 Nov 2020 #11
Weird. He's been bullish on Florida all week. Drunken Irishman Nov 2020 #12
"Had" a better record... not recently though getagrip_already Nov 2020 #19
I mean, yes recently compared to those other states. Drunken Irishman Nov 2020 #20
true, but pollsters have adjusted their sites this time..... getagrip_already Nov 2020 #23
NO NO NO bookmark this - Joe is gonna win TEXAS My Pet Orangutan Nov 2020 #13
I bet on Biden carrying FL AlexSFCA Nov 2020 #14
Did Wasserman say Biden will lose FL or say he won't call? kansasobama Nov 2020 #15
His view is Trump has boosted his numbers with the Hispanic votes... brooklynite Nov 2020 #31
The only thing I care about is that we win the WH and House still_one Nov 2020 #16
What's the rationale for discounting FL? Silent3 Nov 2020 #17
I think the only thing Turin_C3PO Nov 2020 #26
The GOP voter suppression thug machine has been in place for decades Tom Rivers Nov 2020 #30
I would like my state (Florida) to not disappoint me. In It to Win It Nov 2020 #18
Sounds Good colsohlibgal Nov 2020 #21
Map Klaralven Nov 2020 #22
I'll take it mcar Nov 2020 #25
I'm holding out hope Biden has 290 by Tues night... Wounded Bear Nov 2020 #28
Florida and Texas red because.. DIVINEprividence Nov 2020 #29

honest.abe

(8,556 posts)
1. That would be absolutely wonderful.
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 10:50 AM
Nov 2020

And not surprising at all.

Its likely to a be a huge blowout landslide Biden victory. Jump on the bandwagon effect.

Tom Rivers

(459 posts)
3. I'm not ready to throw in the towel or declare victory in any state
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 10:53 AM
Nov 2020

That being said, I would gladly take that result and have no complaints. That's about how I see it shaking out. A win is a win is a win.

SKKY

(11,772 posts)
5. I would like FL to go to Biden, if only to keep Trump below the Mendoza line...
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 10:53 AM
Nov 2020

...but I will take that result. Every day of the week, and twice on Sundays.

moonscape

(4,664 posts)
27. Hope so too. Thanks for all your hard work. It
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 11:32 AM
Nov 2020

would be wonderful to nail FL right away. I got a bit pessimistic about it but based on my track record of being wrong, it should go blue

Claustrum

(4,845 posts)
7. That would be great. Because NC, AZ, and GA should be called tomorrow.
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 10:55 AM
Nov 2020

And if Biden takes two out of the three, there is little to no argument from Trump about any outcome.

kansasobama

(609 posts)
10. I was a naysayer but now I would not call FL out
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 10:58 AM
Nov 2020

I think Miami-Dade has hit 19.36% Democratic. But, the n umber of NPA are so high, hard to know. If Biden can get 20% in Miami-Dade, it will be competitive. If gets anywhere from 21% to 25%, his odds keep going up.

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
12. Weird. He's been bullish on Florida all week.
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 11:00 AM
Nov 2020

I'm nervous. I think Biden can win Georgia and North Carolina, but Florida has a better track record of going blue than those states.

getagrip_already

(14,250 posts)
19. "Had" a better record... not recently though
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 11:12 AM
Nov 2020

I think we would win FL in a fair election, but FL rules don't include integrity or fairness, and they still use vulnerable voting systems they seemingly haven't bothered to harden or lock down.

Hopefully I'm wrong, but they have a lot of thumbs on a lot of scales. They will at least report early.

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
20. I mean, yes recently compared to those other states.
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 11:16 AM
Nov 2020

Georgia hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential election since 1992. Since then, Florida has gone blue in 1996, 2008 and 2012, with 2000 and 2016 being lost by a point or less.

North Carolina has gone blue all of once since, what, the 60s and that was 2008.

I think Georgia is a real possibility. My only concern with North Carolina is that Trump over performed his polls quite well in 2016 (was barely favored by .8 to win and won it by 3.6 points).

getagrip_already

(14,250 posts)
23. true, but pollsters have adjusted their sites this time.....
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 11:22 AM
Nov 2020

Like a marksman sighting in a gun. They learn and adapt.

If they under sampled his supporters last time they are likely over sampling now. Which is good for us since it makes the error in our favor at the polls.

AlexSFCA

(6,137 posts)
14. I bet on Biden carrying FL
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 11:00 AM
Nov 2020

but TX is a real possibility, Beto lost by less than 3% in 2018. And now the demographics is even more favorable and the turnout is expected to far exceed 2018 level. The only question is gop cheating and suppressing dem votes.

kansasobama

(609 posts)
15. Did Wasserman say Biden will lose FL or say he won't call?
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 11:02 AM
Nov 2020

There is a difference

By the way, someone asked if this would give us Senate. Maybe 50-50 Senate but I would prefer 51-49 with Manchin there being an idiot.

Silent3

(15,020 posts)
17. What's the rationale for discounting FL?
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 11:05 AM
Nov 2020

I keep seeing varying size leads for Biden in FL in various polls, but Biden is nevertheless nearly always in the lead. What factor supposedly cancels that out in favor of a Trump win? (Except, perhaps, voter suppression and other Republican ratfucking?)

Turin_C3PO

(13,650 posts)
26. I think the only thing
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 11:26 AM
Nov 2020

that might prevent Biden from taking Florida is shenanigans that might take place. Certainly voter suppression will be an issue there.

Tom Rivers

(459 posts)
30. The GOP voter suppression thug machine has been in place for decades
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 11:40 AM
Nov 2020

It could flip for Joe, but it's never a guarantee.

I'm paraphrasing but I remember reading something that someone once wrote to the effect of "Florida could be given a choice between an Ice Cream Cone and a Crap Sandwich and the vote would be 49.6-49.4, most of the time in favor of the Crap Sandwich."

colsohlibgal

(5,275 posts)
21. Sounds Good
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 11:17 AM
Nov 2020

Not sure Joe loses in Florida and really hope he squeaks it out in Ohio.

In the end all that matters is that we win unmistakably and we do not let Trump slide.....I know NY won’t but hope Joe won’t as well.

 

DIVINEprividence

(443 posts)
29. Florida and Texas red because..
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 11:39 AM
Nov 2020

In Wasserman’s opinion, Trump has been able to hold down his Hispanic support in Florida and Texas. He seemed pretty soft about it to me, like these could easily flip. Somewhere else he said if Biden wins nationally by 8+, he probably wins Texas and Florida. If you go on his Twitter feed, I don’t get the sense he would be shocked if this happened. Florida hit 95% of total 2016 vote and Democrats had a very strong day of early voting Sunday

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