General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDavid Wasserman (COOK POLITICAL): Biden carries GA, PA, NH, AZ and NC, loses FL, TX, IA
320 Biden - 216 Trump
honest.abe
(8,556 posts)And not surprising at all.
Its likely to a be a huge blowout landslide Biden victory. Jump on the bandwagon effect.
Marius25
(3,213 posts)Tom Rivers
(459 posts)That being said, I would gladly take that result and have no complaints. That's about how I see it shaking out. A win is a win is a win.
NorthOf270
(290 posts)Dem2
(8,166 posts)But, we'll see soon enough
SKKY
(11,772 posts)...but I will take that result. Every day of the week, and twice on Sundays.
obamanut2012
(25,911 posts)We have worked so hard locally.
Turin_C3PO
(13,650 posts)efforts pay off!
moonscape
(4,664 posts)would be wonderful to nail FL right away. I got a bit pessimistic about it but based on my track record of being wrong, it should go blue
Claustrum
(4,845 posts)And if Biden takes two out of the three, there is little to no argument from Trump about any outcome.
a kennedy
(29,467 posts)*Fingers crossed*
kansasobama
(609 posts)I think Miami-Dade has hit 19.36% Democratic. But, the n umber of NPA are so high, hard to know. If Biden can get 20% in Miami-Dade, it will be competitive. If gets anywhere from 21% to 25%, his odds keep going up.
roamer65
(36,739 posts)TX is a wild card right now.
That is good in the long run.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)I'm nervous. I think Biden can win Georgia and North Carolina, but Florida has a better track record of going blue than those states.
getagrip_already
(14,250 posts)I think we would win FL in a fair election, but FL rules don't include integrity or fairness, and they still use vulnerable voting systems they seemingly haven't bothered to harden or lock down.
Hopefully I'm wrong, but they have a lot of thumbs on a lot of scales. They will at least report early.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Georgia hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential election since 1992. Since then, Florida has gone blue in 1996, 2008 and 2012, with 2000 and 2016 being lost by a point or less.
North Carolina has gone blue all of once since, what, the 60s and that was 2008.
I think Georgia is a real possibility. My only concern with North Carolina is that Trump over performed his polls quite well in 2016 (was barely favored by .8 to win and won it by 3.6 points).
getagrip_already
(14,250 posts)Like a marksman sighting in a gun. They learn and adapt.
If they under sampled his supporters last time they are likely over sampling now. Which is good for us since it makes the error in our favor at the polls.
My Pet Orangutan
(9,101 posts)AlexSFCA
(6,137 posts)but TX is a real possibility, Beto lost by less than 3% in 2018. And now the demographics is even more favorable and the turnout is expected to far exceed 2018 level. The only question is gop cheating and suppressing dem votes.
kansasobama
(609 posts)There is a difference
By the way, someone asked if this would give us Senate. Maybe 50-50 Senate but I would prefer 51-49 with Manchin there being an idiot.
brooklynite
(93,873 posts)This is his current best guess.
still_one
(91,965 posts)Silent3
(15,020 posts)I keep seeing varying size leads for Biden in FL in various polls, but Biden is nevertheless nearly always in the lead. What factor supposedly cancels that out in favor of a Trump win? (Except, perhaps, voter suppression and other Republican ratfucking?)
Turin_C3PO
(13,650 posts)that might prevent Biden from taking Florida is shenanigans that might take place. Certainly voter suppression will be an issue there.
Tom Rivers
(459 posts)It could flip for Joe, but it's never a guarantee.
I'm paraphrasing but I remember reading something that someone once wrote to the effect of "Florida could be given a choice between an Ice Cream Cone and a Crap Sandwich and the vote would be 49.6-49.4, most of the time in favor of the Crap Sandwich."
In It to Win It
(8,143 posts)It needs to go to Biden
colsohlibgal
(5,275 posts)Not sure Joe loses in Florida and really hope he squeaks it out in Ohio.
In the end all that matters is that we win unmistakably and we do not let Trump slide.....I know NY wont but hope Joe wont as well.
Klaralven
(7,510 posts)mcar
(42,210 posts)Wounded Bear
(58,440 posts)DIVINEprividence
(443 posts)In Wassermans opinion, Trump has been able to hold down his Hispanic support in Florida and Texas. He seemed pretty soft about it to me, like these could easily flip. Somewhere else he said if Biden wins nationally by 8+, he probably wins Texas and Florida. If you go on his Twitter feed, I dont get the sense he would be shocked if this happened. Florida hit 95% of total 2016 vote and Democrats had a very strong day of early voting Sunday