General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSabato's Crystal Ball - The Crystal Ball's 2020 Final Picks
from his email...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
-- Our final Electoral College ratings show Biden at 321 EVs and Trump at 217.
-- Democrats are narrow favorites to capture a Senate majority, 50-48 with two Toss-ups
-- the two Georgia races, both of which we think are likely to go to runoffs.
-- We have Democrats netting 10 seats in the House.
-- The only governorship we have flipping is Montana, which would be a gain for GOP.
Table 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College rating changes
State Old Rating New Rating
Florida Toss-up Leans GOP
Georgia Toss-up Leans Dem
Iowa Toss-up Leans GOP
ME-2 Toss-up Leans GOP
NC Toss-up Leans Dem
Ohio Toss-up Leans GOP
Table 2: Crystal Ball Senate rating changes
Senator Old Rating New Rating
Joni Ernst (R-IA) Leans Dem Leans GOP
Thom Tillis (R-NC) Toss-up Leans Dem
John Cornyn (R-TX) Likely GOP Leans GOP
Table 3: Crystal Ball House rating changes
Member/District Old Rating New Rating
D. Schweikert (R, AZ-6) Toss-up Leans Dem
T.J. Cox (D, CA-21) Toss-up Leans Dem
D. Mucarsel-Powell (D, FL-26) Toss-up Leans Dem
IN-5 Open (Brooks, R) Toss-up Leans Dem
Jim Hagedorn (R, MN-1) Toss-up Leans Dem
C. Peterson (D, MN-7) Toss-up Leans GOP
Ann Wagner (R, MO-2) Toss-up Leans GOP
Don Bacon (R, NE-2) Toss-up Leans GOP
Susie Lee (D, NV-3) Likely Dem Leans Dem
Jeff Van Drew (R, NJ-2) Toss-up Leans Dem
Max Rose (D, NY-11) Toss-up Leans Dem
A. Brindisi (D, NY-22) Toss-up Leans Dem
John Katko (R, NY-24) Toss-up Leans GOP
Dan Bishop (R, NC-9) Safe GOP Likely GOP
NC-11 Open (Meadows, R) Likely GOP Leans GOP
Steve Chabot (R, OH-1) Toss-up Leans Dem
Kendra Horn (D, OK-5) Toss-up Leans Dem
Scott Perry (R, PA-10) Toss-up Leans Dem
Chip Roy (R, TX-21) Toss-up Leans GOP
TX-22 Open (Olson, R) Toss-up Leans GOP
VA-5 Open (Riggleman, R) Toss-up Leans GOP
J. H. Beutler (R, WA-3) Likely GOP Leans GOP
NewJeffCT
(56,827 posts)Lean Dem to now Lean GOP
SharonClark
(10,005 posts)538 had the forecast as red until 10/23, then slightly blue for 4 days.
Don't give up on Iowa because it's all GOTV now.
BannonsLiver
(16,162 posts)The polling says otherwise. Actually on the whole this is a rather grim forecast for Dems, outside of the House races, relative to where Sabato had things a month ago.
Cosmocat
(14,543 posts)Not sure if that is part of their thinking, but it is mine.
BannonsLiver
(16,162 posts)But a lot of the polls have had bigger spreads than that for Biden. I expect Biden to win FL.
LonePirate
(13,386 posts)Sabato is one of the more bearish sites with regard to Dem performance. We need to turn out and persuade Independents to prove that he is too conservative in their predictions.
ETA: I had mistakenly added Cook instead of Sabato which I have now corrected.
Frances
(8,531 posts)LonePirate
(13,386 posts)NorthOf270
(290 posts)He doesn't really leave the slight chance Trump will be able to pull it off open.
Also this is Sabato.
redstatebluegirl
(12,264 posts)She has enough money to fight them thank goodness, but that one scares me. Stephanie Bice is a total nut case.
DeminPennswoods
(15,246 posts)that's a good sign. This district is better than the old gerry-mandered one, but still center-right in south central PA. Scott Perry is a die-hard Trumper, though, and DePasquale, his Dem opponent, has twice been elected statewide as Aud General. It would be sweet to take this seat.
I'm thinking the Iowa senate call is based on that last DesMoines newspaper poll.
underpants
(182,279 posts)If NC goes Joe its likely over. Georgia? Way over. If we can get just one of those Senate seats that would be sweet.
Polybius
(15,239 posts)It should be toss-up. There were two polls, one with him down by 2, and one with him up by 1.