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SharonClark

(10,005 posts)
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 12:59 PM Nov 2020

Sabato's Crystal Ball - The Crystal Ball's 2020 Final Picks

from his email...

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
-- Our final Electoral College ratings show Biden at 321 EVs and Trump at 217.
-- Democrats are narrow favorites to capture a Senate majority, 50-48 with two Toss-ups
-- the two Georgia races, both of which we think are likely to go to runoffs.
-- We have Democrats netting 10 seats in the House.
-- The only governorship we have flipping is Montana, which would be a gain for GOP.

Table 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College rating changes
State Old Rating New Rating
Florida Toss-up Leans GOP
Georgia Toss-up Leans Dem
Iowa Toss-up Leans GOP
ME-2 Toss-up Leans GOP
NC Toss-up Leans Dem
Ohio Toss-up Leans GOP

Table 2: Crystal Ball Senate rating changes
Senator Old Rating New Rating
Joni Ernst (R-IA) Leans Dem Leans GOP
Thom Tillis (R-NC) Toss-up Leans Dem
John Cornyn (R-TX) Likely GOP Leans GOP

Table 3: Crystal Ball House rating changes
Member/District Old Rating New Rating
D. Schweikert (R, AZ-6) Toss-up Leans Dem
T.J. Cox (D, CA-21) Toss-up Leans Dem
D. Mucarsel-Powell (D, FL-26) Toss-up Leans Dem
IN-5 Open (Brooks, R) Toss-up Leans Dem
Jim Hagedorn (R, MN-1) Toss-up Leans Dem
C. Peterson (D, MN-7) Toss-up Leans GOP
Ann Wagner (R, MO-2) Toss-up Leans GOP
Don Bacon (R, NE-2) Toss-up Leans GOP
Susie Lee (D, NV-3) Likely Dem Leans Dem
Jeff Van Drew (R, NJ-2) Toss-up Leans Dem
Max Rose (D, NY-11) Toss-up Leans Dem
A. Brindisi (D, NY-22) Toss-up Leans Dem
John Katko (R, NY-24) Toss-up Leans GOP
Dan Bishop (R, NC-9) Safe GOP Likely GOP
NC-11 Open (Meadows, R) Likely GOP Leans GOP
Steve Chabot (R, OH-1) Toss-up Leans Dem
Kendra Horn (D, OK-5) Toss-up Leans Dem
Scott Perry (R, PA-10) Toss-up Leans Dem
Chip Roy (R, TX-21) Toss-up Leans GOP
TX-22 Open (Olson, R) Toss-up Leans GOP
VA-5 Open (Riggleman, R) Toss-up Leans GOP
J. H. Beutler (R, WA-3) Likely GOP Leans GOP

13 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Sabato's Crystal Ball - The Crystal Ball's 2020 Final Picks (Original Post) SharonClark Nov 2020 OP
Disappointing in Iowa NewJeffCT Nov 2020 #1
Iowa is still a toss up. SharonClark Nov 2020 #9
I'm not getting the sudden writing off of FL to Trump BannonsLiver Nov 2020 #2
Just me, but Joe has to win Florida by +3 or +4 to actually win Cosmocat Nov 2020 #12
I hope it's more like 2.5 but I get your point BannonsLiver Nov 2020 #13
These are very conservative estimates/predictions. I'm not saying they are wrong predictions. LonePirate Nov 2020 #3
This poll is Sabato Frances Nov 2020 #4
Sorry about that. I had somehow mixed up the two. I will edit my response. LonePirate Nov 2020 #7
Cook is bearish, but he also thinks the cake is baked NorthOf270 Nov 2020 #5
The GOP and the pacs are spending a fortune in the OK-5 to beat Kendra Horn. redstatebluegirl Nov 2020 #6
If PA-10 is "lean Dem" DeminPennswoods Nov 2020 #8
Mostly good news. Trump has to run the table to have a shot underpants Nov 2020 #10
Max Rose is lean Dem? Polybius Nov 2020 #11

SharonClark

(10,005 posts)
9. Iowa is still a toss up.
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 01:25 PM
Nov 2020

538 had the forecast as red until 10/23, then slightly blue for 4 days.
Don't give up on Iowa because it's all GOTV now.

BannonsLiver

(16,162 posts)
2. I'm not getting the sudden writing off of FL to Trump
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 01:03 PM
Nov 2020

The polling says otherwise. Actually on the whole this is a rather grim forecast for Dems, outside of the House races, relative to where Sabato had things a month ago.

Cosmocat

(14,543 posts)
12. Just me, but Joe has to win Florida by +3 or +4 to actually win
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 02:35 PM
Nov 2020

Not sure if that is part of their thinking, but it is mine.

BannonsLiver

(16,162 posts)
13. I hope it's more like 2.5 but I get your point
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 02:38 PM
Nov 2020

But a lot of the polls have had bigger spreads than that for Biden. I expect Biden to win FL.

LonePirate

(13,386 posts)
3. These are very conservative estimates/predictions. I'm not saying they are wrong predictions.
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 01:04 PM
Nov 2020

Sabato is one of the more bearish sites with regard to Dem performance. We need to turn out and persuade Independents to prove that he is too conservative in their predictions.

ETA: I had mistakenly added Cook instead of Sabato which I have now corrected.

 

NorthOf270

(290 posts)
5. Cook is bearish, but he also thinks the cake is baked
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 01:16 PM
Nov 2020

He doesn't really leave the slight chance Trump will be able to pull it off open.

Also this is Sabato.

redstatebluegirl

(12,264 posts)
6. The GOP and the pacs are spending a fortune in the OK-5 to beat Kendra Horn.
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 01:19 PM
Nov 2020

She has enough money to fight them thank goodness, but that one scares me. Stephanie Bice is a total nut case.

DeminPennswoods

(15,246 posts)
8. If PA-10 is "lean Dem"
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 01:22 PM
Nov 2020

that's a good sign. This district is better than the old gerry-mandered one, but still center-right in south central PA. Scott Perry is a die-hard Trumper, though, and DePasquale, his Dem opponent, has twice been elected statewide as Aud General. It would be sweet to take this seat.

I'm thinking the Iowa senate call is based on that last DesMoines newspaper poll.

underpants

(182,279 posts)
10. Mostly good news. Trump has to run the table to have a shot
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 01:50 PM
Nov 2020

If NC goes Joe it’s likely over. Georgia? Way over. If we can get just one of those Senate seats that would be sweet.

Polybius

(15,239 posts)
11. Max Rose is lean Dem?
Mon Nov 2, 2020, 02:16 PM
Nov 2020

It should be toss-up. There were two polls, one with him down by 2, and one with him up by 1.

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