A Rarely Mentioned Biden path to Victory

[Stallion]

According to 538.com if Biden picks up the single electoral vote districts in Maine and Nebraska which he is leading then trump's chance at victory is less than 1%. I wonder when those districts will be counted and announced?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

[Thekaspervote]

1. I saw that last night!! Helped me sleep

[sweetloukillbot]

2. Maine will probably be pretty quick, I'd think

It's rural, and polls close early.
I think Maine is a tougher route though.

Dave Wasserman seems to think Nebraska 2 is one of Biden's easiest pick-ups.

[sunonmars]

5. Not so sure, don't forget, rank voting and polls show the 3rd party going heavily Gideon in re-rank.

[Ms. Toad]

6. A democrat has only won it once -

Obama 08.

But the OP confirms my suspicion that they must really need that one vote.

[Ms. Toad]

3. Nebraska should release the early vote totals first -

They can be scanned starting today (and tabulated the moment the polls close with just a button push).

Polls close at 9 PM ET.

Similar for Maine - they can process up to 4 days in advance, but can't release totals until the polls close at 8 PM ET.

The in-person votes will come later in both states, so expect Biden to lose early leads in both places (if Biden advance/Trump day of pattern holds)

[JI7]

4. What if all states had that type of system ?

Anyone know what electoral votes might look like with that ?

[Rstrstx]

16. Probably not that different

I believe some people have tried that as an experiment in previous elections to determine whether it would have changed the outcome. Long story short - it didn’t.

I really don’t think you’d want to have a system like that, when redistricting time comes up the states controlled by Republicans would gerrymander to such extremes as to ensure their state’s votes stay the same (or very close) and nearly every congressional district in their state would be red.

That would have the catastrophic side effect of all but guaranteeing a Republican controlled House.

[Budi]

7. I've been watching this one. Omaha 2nd district.

Incumbent Don Bacon (R), Kara Eastman (D), and Tyler Schaeffer(L) are running in the general election for the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska on November 3, 2020.

The race is one of 56 U.S. House rematches from 2018. In 2018, Bacon defeated Eastman, receiving 51% of the vote to Eastman's 49%. Bacon defeated incumbent Brad Ashford (D) in 2016, 49% to 48%.

On October 7, Roll Call listed Bacon as the 2020 election cycle's most vulnerable representative, citing Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's 7-point lead in a recent poll of the district's voters and spending by national Democrats.[1] As of October 8, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee had each spent $1.2 million in the district.[2]

The outcome of this race will affect partisan control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 117th Congress. All 435 seats in the House are up for election. As of October 2020, Democrats have a 232 to 198 majority over Republicans. The Libertarian Party has one seat. Four seats are vacant. Democrats are defending 30 districts Donald Trump (R) won in 2016. Republicans are defending five districts Hillary Clinton (D) won in 2016.

Whichever presidential candidate wins in the 2nd District will receive one of Nebraska's five electoral votes. The state allots three electoral votes by congressional district and two by the statewide presidential election result.

Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District is located in the eastern portion of the state and includes Douglas County and part of Sarpy County
MORE...
https://ballotpedia.org/Nebraska%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2020

[GusBob]

8. Yeah I read Trump's campaign manager said Maine second district is important for their path

[sweetloukillbot]

9. Trump has been campaigning in Maine... nt

[lagomorph777]

10. Oh, so he's boosting Biden's chances there. How many Mainers has he popsicled?

[edhopper]

11. Not without

PA or NC or FL.

[sweetloukillbot]

12. It's possible

Michigan, Wisconsin, AZ and one of those individual districts =270.
Fl, PA not necessary.

[edhopper]

15. Interesting

thanks

[Rstrstx]

13. It's not really a path to victory

It’s the results they get when you rerun their model knowing that Biden has won those two districts. It uses the demographic makeup of those districts and treats as fact that he won them to extrapolate assumptions about the way the rest of the country votes.

[sweetloukillbot]

17. No, it's a path to victory

Either one of those, plus AZ, MI, WI = 270

[Rstrstx]

18. Yes that is a path to victory but that's not what the OP did

There is an interactive map on 538.com where you can play with its model by selecting a certain state or CD on the map as going for Trump or Biden. If all you do is check off NE’s and ME’s 2nd districts for Biden the model predicts Biden will win 99+% of the time. They didn’t choose AZ or MI (or any state for that matter). Their interactive guide returns this:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#M2:0,N2:0

By contrast, this is what Biden’s chances look like if you switch and change both NE-2 and ME-2 to Trump:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#N2:1,M2:1

[Blue Owl]

14. K&R