General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhat are we predicting for tomorrow?
I'm thinking we keep the House, the Senate stays the same and we win the presidency.
Unless some super shenanigans occur with the SCOTUS and Trump in the coming days.
rzemanfl
(29,556 posts)Jamesyu
(259 posts)obnoxiousdrunk
(2,909 posts)all three.
SheltieLover
(57,073 posts)Ahpook
(2,749 posts)Totally Tunsie
(10,885 posts)LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)(D/R)
Electoral 290/163
Senate 52/48
House 197/154
A sweep. Biden gets popular vote as well-- 56/44 pct.
JT45242
(2,258 posts)Pain for the Rethugs.
We get a clean sweep at the national level.
We flip Texas thanks to Beto and the increased voter turnout.
We also flip other state houses.
Ahpook
(2,749 posts)I will flip!
Poiuyt
(18,122 posts)Claustrum
(4,845 posts)We will lose Alabama. Kelly in AZ, Cunningham in NC, Hickenlooper in CO looks like a lock. Then we have Maine (Gideon leads the last few polls ranging from +1 to +3), IA (Greenfield leads most of the polls as well), GA (2 possibilities). If we get any one of them, we have a 50-50 and Kamala (VP) will break the tie.
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)I don't think we'll know for sure until Thursday or Friday. (And that's not counting any court challenges, which are sure to come.) But I wouldn't be surprised to see Trump ahead in PA by the time the sun rises on Wednesday. Later that day, we should get another dump of mail-in ballots, and we'll be able to see from the change there the odds that Biden takes it.
(Obviously, this is working from the assumption that it comes down to PA/MI/WI. As to any of the other routes to victory -- I'd be delighted if Biden were to win any of FL/NC/GA/AZ, but we have to be clear: in each case, any lead we have is well within the MoE, and they've all be reliably Republican states for years. Grabbing one or more would be a major coup, but our likeliest path is still the one I mentioned above.)
shenmue
(38,506 posts)Carrying a bottle of Bailey's Irish Cream.
czarjak
(11,260 posts)Sorry Mike & Mike & Billy, and all you other Dominionist pieces of shit. If youre stupid enough to believe Jesus is waiting on a cue from you, youre stupid enough! (Thats what they believe, believe it or not) Ask em. Nice knowing everyone.
Under The Radar
(3,401 posts)The presidential race called by 10:00 with Florida going for Biden but do t go to bed before we get to see the great state of Texas go blue, and with 4 seats flipped on the senate.
Damn I like the thought of that possibility
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)Tom Rivers
(459 posts)National popular vote percentage:
Biden 52
Trump 46
Other 2
Biden between 280-low 300's EVs.
Dems keep House. Senate is anyone's guess. A Blue Wave Biden win gets us the Senate, a more modest Biden win like I'm predicting is probably closer to a tie.
electric_blue68
(14,845 posts)59/50, 51/49 or 52/48!
We have a good chance. 👍
doc03
(35,320 posts)take that to the bank.
Statistical
(19,264 posts)50 seats is a lot different than 54 seats.
safeinOhio
(32,656 posts)Just a long shot.
Progressive Jones
(6,011 posts)A big, undeniable win for Biden/Harris. Several GOP Senators gone. More House seats added for Dems.
This is no "wish list". This will happen.
Some States will go red, no matter what. There are still plenty of GOP voters around, but there are plenty who hate Trump at this point, and they will add to the Blue Wave, either by voting against Trump, or staying home.
I'm expecting surprises that the GOP doesn't see coming.
I'm expecting the American People to do major political harm to the GOP, and the GOP's future.
jmowreader
(50,543 posts)Trump's trade war did a LOT of damage to the economies of those two states and irreparably damaged a lot of farmers. I believe the farmers will stay home - they can't vote for a Democrat of any stripe but they can't vote for the guy who tried to ruin them either - so the Democrats in those two states - who certainly have no problem with filling in the little oval for Joe Biden - will prevail.
Kentucky will be very close, largely because they better than anyone know how bad Mitch McConnell sucks. I believe that anyone voting for Amy McGrath will also vote for Joe Biden, so we'll get maybe a 2 to 3 percent win. Since it's winner-take-all there, a margin of victory of one voter is all we need, and we'll get more than that.
Similarly, South Carolina is in play because their senator, who is up for reelection this year, is a walking disaster. And once again, if you vote Democratic for the Senate you're probably also going to vote Democratic for president.
The three states Trump flipped to steal the White House will flip back.
I would LOVE to have these states: GA, SC, FL, KS, MO, KY and TX. If we can get all of them, we've got the GOP's most critical state (there is no path to 270 for the GOP that doesn't have Texas in it), we have a solid blue Atlantic Seaboard, and we've got a band of blue stretching from coast to coast. The optics of such a layout would kill the GOP for several years.
And thanks to the federal judge who told the GOP to get stuffed over the Harris County, Texas, ballots, we stand a very strong chance of taking Texas. Texas is an agricultural state, and has been impacted by Trump's trade war.
We won't take the American Redoubt (Idaho, Montana and Wyoming) where the looniest Trumpites live, but that's okay because the whole region only has 10 electolral votes.
Numbers?
Biden gets between 300 and 400 electoral votes. If I have to be pinned down I'll say 350 to 360. This one's going to be a bloodbath for the GOP, in a figurative sense. They will use the excuse "he was a Democrat the whole time" to dump Trump without bloodshed. Expect reports of small fires in the middle of the street from coast to coast as these guys pour gas on their Trump merch and set it afire.
The Senate will break for us. My estimate is 52 to 55 seats will have Democrats in them come the next cycle. We will then get rid of the filibuster and fix this country once and for all.
We will expand our majority in the House to 250 seats.
We will also flip several state houses. This will be a huge problem for the GOP because we will degerrymander the states we take back. Personally, I'd regerrymander them to dilute the Republican vote to the point the only Republican congressmen will come from 3-EV and 4-EV states that are packed with Republicans anyway...but I am feeling especially evil toward the GOP this week.
mshasta
(2,108 posts)And more houses