GOP pollster says the Trump-Biden race comes down to 3 states and Biden only needs to win 1

[question everything]

Longtime GOP pollster and political strategist Frank Luntz told CNBC on Tuesday he will be closely watching the results in North Carolina, Florida and Ohio, describing the trio of states as key bellwethers in determining the election outcome between President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

“If Donald Trump wins all three of them, he’s going to be in this,” Luntz said on “Squawk Box,” as Americans who haven’t already voted go to the polls on Election Day. “If Biden wins even one of those three, it’s Biden’s presidency,” Luntz added.

(snip)

If Trump is able to win these three critical states, the race may then boil down to the results in Pennsylvania “because they’re going to take the longest to count [votes],” Luntz predicted. “We will not know a winner in Pennsylvania for at least the next 48 hours, perhaps 72 hours.” However, Luntz said he believes Ohio, North Carolina and Florida are so critical because they may have results by early Wednesday morning, thereby offering a strong glimpse into Trump’s overall chances to win a second term.

More..

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/03/gop-pollster-frank-luntz-trump-biden-race-comes-down-to-3-states.html

[idziak4ever1234]

1. Republican Pundits on tv are sounding fairly confident.

I know it is their job, but I would rather their tail was between their legs.

[bigtree]

2. that seems flawed

...but I'm not interested enough to see what other states the putz gives to Trump.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. I think he's saying Trump needs to win all three to make this a contest.

Then it theoretically comes down to PA & AZ. Even then, Trump will need both.

[Tom Rinaldo]

3. True enough, but he neglected Texas and Arizona.

If Biden wins Texas it is all over, and if he wins Arizona and the Omaha district EV it should be virtually over also, unless Luntz is assuming that a Biden loss in Ohio could signal a Biden loss in Michigan or Wisconsin as well as Pennsylvania. It seems extremely unlikely to me that Biden could lose more than one of those Midwestern states. Me, I expect Biden to rebuild that blue wall in its entirety. Biden also has a real chance in Iowa, a Biden win there would be major also even if Trump won Georgia, Ohio and Florida

[LizBeth]

4. "Be in this" sounds like a play for a created horse race.

[DrToast]

5. It's half right

If Biden wins one of those, he wins.

But Trump could win all three of those and still lose.

[Aepps22]

7. Saying You're In It

Saying you're in it doesn't mean you're winning it just means that you have a chance.

[J_William_Ryan]

8. No...

Biden wins the Clinton states from 2016, WI and MI – where he’s projected to win – and PA: 279 ECVs for Biden.

Or,

Biden wins the Clinton states from 2016, WI and MI – where he’s projected to win – and AZ: 270 ECVs for Biden.

Biden doesn’t need FL, NC, or OH – Trump does, in addition to MI or WI or PA.