How are things looking so far?

[Dr. Jack]

It's still quite early but how are things looking? All I've heard about is high turnout in Philadelphia and high black voter turnout in South Carolina. Both sound good for Biden but I haven't heard much beyond that in any other state or in Republican strongholds. Are we doing well so far?

[GusBob]

1. I was wondering about exit polls

I know, I know, they can be unreliable but some of the take aways are important

[getagrip_already]

8. see number 4 below...

I assume they got the percent rd/i from exit polls. I doubt the state is releasing data real time.

[LAS14]

13. I think, since the Kerry debacle, they don't release exit polls before the polls close. nt

[GusBob]

16. Oh gawd yeah

I should never have forgot when Wonkette called it for JK

[Amishman]

2. high turnout everywhere - red, blue, and purple

Given that we have an overall voter registration advantage (especially in PA, MI, and WI) and it looks like indies will break our way - looking pretty darn good.

[Nevilledog]

3. High? Knowing you, are we talking numbers or smoking weed?

[Dr. Jack]

6. At 11:00am on a Tuesday?

I keep my vices to after work hours only.

[Ace Rothstein]

9. A little wake and bake never hurt anyone.

[getagrip_already]

11. wake and bake......

[Dr. Jack]

22. Maybe but not while I'm at work

There is the rate weekend where I might start rolling around 2:00pm but definitely not while I'm at work seeing patients. Probably a good way for me to end up without a job and a license.

[getagrip_already]

4. there was a thread earlier about florida...

Something to the effect that republicans are falling well short of the 65% they need to turn out today to be competitive.

They were in the low 50's. But it's still early in the day. It may change after lunch and after work, though who is working this year.....

[triron]

14. Also according to Quinnipiac, 9% of republicans in Fla. are voting for Biden.

[Dr. Jack]

17. Sounds good so far

[Drahthaardogs]

28. R'a are up 100,000 in Florida

But Miami-Dade is not reporting. Broward is turning out, but so is Sumter.

If Independents break our way, we will win. If not, we won’t.

[ananda]

5. Harris and Travis Counties in TX are doing well!

Large numbers voting safely.

[RussBLib]

7. Was just marveling that Trump did not start a war

to distract us and try to make us obey by playing the patriotism card.

So that's good news

[wcmagumba]

24. We'll find out later if he tried, likely would have been slapped down by Generals if he did...

Imagine the back stories that will come out when drump loses and as President Biden replaces the thuglican slugs inhabiting all sorts of government positions...the books, the books, tell alls, the pain...I'm overwhelming myself already...all stop...

[RussBLib]

40. Exactly. The ooze is going to creep out

Frankly, I would look forward to a boring presidency, but there is a lot of work to do to rebuild after Trump's Wrecking Ball Circus.

[Johnny2X2X]

10. Seeing a ton of great signs

I follow mostly center or Dem people in the news, great turnout in areas that are good for Dems, GOP not doing what they needed so far. All looks great!

Even several reps are saying it looks great for Biden.

I wonder if there's Cons saying there are ggreat signs for Trump?

[getagrip_already]

19. joes campaign manager is doing frequent briefings...

She hasn't attacked the press, or left in a huff. Amateur.

Anyway, she sounds upbeat and confident in both their position and with their paths to victory.

We know the fantasy world the wh and trump campaign is in..... But to hear dems confident with no major "buts" is reassuring though.

[cally]

35. Where do I find these briefings?

I want to listen!!

[getagrip_already]

37. this link was for tthe last one....

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1kvJpeyyyqVxE

You can probably sign up at one of the links.

[PTWB]

12. In FL turnout is high with Rs ahead and gaining.

We will need to pick up a bigger percent of NPAs there, and a few % of Rs to vote for Biden.

It is way too soon to make any conclusions. If you can do some phone banking for Joe PLEASE DO! We need to GOTV in Florida.

[LAS14]

15. What's NPA? nt

[GusBob]

20. No Party Affiliation

I am one. But I always vote dem

AN NPA in a swing district in a swing state gets polled a lot, back when we had a landline

[Amishman]

21. Florida speak for independents

The florida turnout numbers haven't been great, but they don't account for how NPA/indies break. All signs suggest we come out ahead with that group. And with R/D turnout about even, that could definitely be enough - especially if there is more R crossover than D.

[PTWB]

23. No Party Affiliation

[LAS14]

18. But haven't we been told over and over that Nov 3 would see more Republicans? nt

[PTWB]

25. Sure.

Right now counting all the data that is available for both early voting and Election Day voting, Rs have a 90,000+ turnout advantage (and growing).

That doesn’t mean much because it doesn’t account for how people voted. If Joe gets 9% of Rs and Trump gets 7% of Ds, and Joe gets 55% of NPAs and Trump only gets 45% of NPAs, Joe could still win FL even with the higher R turnout.

[Drahthaardogs]

30. Miami Dade has not reported numbers yet

But state that turnout is large

[PTWB]

32. Ehh... look at Broward.

Broward is more blue that Miami Dade and we barely have a lead there for Election Day voting. Like, 3000 votes over the Rs last I saw.

Florida is turning into a red state. We can still win FL if the independents break heavily for Biden, no doubt. But Rs are ahead of where they were in 2016 - by TURNOUT.

I think our path must go through Pennsylvania.

[Drahthaardogs]

34. Hope you are not right

I really Do

[PTWB]

36. You and me both.

Also hoping some decent Rs flip and NPAs break for Joe. We could still win it but Florida is being, well, Florida.

[PTWB]

39. Miami just came in.

Not great.

Total votes cast today: 88,538

DEM 31,161
REP 27,649
NPA 28,351
OTHER 1,377

Next update at 5 pm

---

This thing is going to hinge on how the NPA voters break. Rs are going to have a (significantly) larger lead in pure partisan turnout by the end of the day, much bigger than they had in 2016 even. But in 2016 the NPAs broke for Trump and in 2018 the NPAs broke pretty heavily in favor of the Ds.

If we can repeat our performance with NPAs that we had in 2018 we can still win. If NPAs vote like they did in 2016, Biden will not win FL.

[Clearly fogged in]

33. ty

[Marthe48]

26. Daughter and s-i-l are voting in Maryland today

she has a mask, a pen, ID, hand sanitizer, and pepper spray. Her phone is charged in case she sees any intimidation or funny business. She isn't worried about the two of them, but is watching out for others. They are planning to spend the afternoon in line. They have been working from home, and took this afternoon off. I'll update when I hear from her.

[Marthe48]

31. Took less than an hour

No lines. No incidents. Whew. Now, we wait.

[Nay]

27. Pinellas County, FL exit polling showed Biden at 54% and Trump at 45%. Trump won that

county by 1% in 2016.

[Vinca]

29. Busy polls in SW NH. Our town was very well organized and it only took about half

an hour total to vote. Here's an interesting tidbit from the polls, though. They had a tent set up outside for people who didn't want to wear a mask to vote in. Inside I could see one masked poll worker and one lone maskless guy voting. Kind of matches the number of Trump signs I saw on the way to vote vs. all the Biden signs.

[BumRushDaShow]

38. Philly is live-streaming its mail-in ballot canvassing operations

pre-canvass and canvassing

This is taking place at the PA Convention Center in downtown Philly. I can see sections in this huge room where people are extracting envelopes (far right) and getting the stacks of ballots to run through scanners and box up (far left).