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Johnny2X2X

(19,059 posts) Tue Nov 3, 2020, 06:32 PM Nov 2020

Nate Silver FL update, good news

Looks like the GOP didn't quite get the turnout they needed to win according to what Nate figured they'd need.

Link to tweet

?s=20

12 replies

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Nate Silver FL update, good news (Original Post) Johnny2X2X Nov 2020 OP

Florida win would be icing on a yummy cake ......... Iliyah Nov 2020 #1

Rt.. Steady as WE GO DEMS! Cha Nov 2020 #2

Party registration in FL is whacked. Laelth Nov 2020 #3

Plus... Mike Nelson Nov 2020 #4

More good FL news... GOFM Nov 2020 #5

I don't understand Nimble_Idea Nov 2020 #6

Dem turnout in 2016 was only 72 GOFM Nov 2020 #8

Nate is thinking that Republicans need to be up by 300,000+ by party reg. Fahrenthold451 Nov 2020 #7

Even more good FL news GOFM Nov 2020 #9

He estimates 3.5% is the critical turnout for the GOP sir pball Nov 2020 #10

Most of those missing counties are conservative but fairly small ... I think trump won them by a fishwax Nov 2020 #11

Watch Sumter County Florida (The Villages). Anything less than 65% for R's Biden win NightWatcher Nov 2020 #12

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)

1. Florida win would be icing on a yummy cake .........

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 06:35 PM

Nov 2020

Cha

(297,158 posts)

2. Rt.. Steady as WE GO DEMS!

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 06:36 PM

Nov 2020

Laelth

(32,017 posts)

3. Party registration in FL is whacked.

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 06:36 PM

Nov 2020

That’s not a good indicator of how people are going to vote. Turnout, however, is a good indicator, and it is reasonable to assume that high turnout favors a Democratic victory. That’s what we are seeing this year.

Blue Florida!

-Laelth

Mike Nelson

(9,953 posts)

4. Plus...

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 06:37 PM

Nov 2020

... a significant number of Repubs may vote for Biden. Not so many Dems would vote for Crooked Donald.

GOFM

(15 posts)

5. More good FL news...

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 06:38 PM

Nov 2020

Link to tweet

?s=20

Nimble_Idea

(1,803 posts)

6. I don't understand

Reply to GOFM (Reply #5)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 06:43 PM

Nov 2020

why can't they hit 80 easy? Makes me amgery

GOFM

(15 posts)

8. Dem turnout in 2016 was only 72

Reply to Nimble_Idea (Reply #6)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 06:50 PM

Nov 2020

Anything close to 80 would be a very, very good sign.

Fahrenthold451

(436 posts)

7. Nate is thinking that Republicans need to be up by 300,000+ by party reg.

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 06:48 PM

Nov 2020

Net crossover vote with Rs voting Biden probably will be 150,000 in Biden's favor. Only need about five percent of the NPA to swing Biden to tie. If Nate is Right, Biden wins by 100k votes.

GOFM

(15 posts)

9. Even more good FL news

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 06:55 PM

Nov 2020

Trump won Duval Co. (Jacksonville) by 1.4 in 2016.

Link to tweet

?s=20

sir pball

(4,741 posts)

10. He estimates 3.5% is the critical turnout for the GOP

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 07:04 PM

Nov 2020

For those of you who were as confused as I.

fishwax

(29,149 posts)

11. Most of those missing counties are conservative but fairly small ... I think trump won them by a

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 07:06 PM

Nov 2020

combined 16,000 votes or so.

Dade, on the other hand, is missing a couple of hours of updates and brought about a 290k margin for HRC. So ... these numbers look pretty good to me.

NightWatcher

(39,343 posts)

12. Watch Sumter County Florida (The Villages). Anything less than 65% for R's Biden win

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 07:09 PM

Nov 2020

I've been told to watch this very early. If the rebukes get less than 65%, Biden wins. This might happen early and by what degree will be telling of the rest of the state and possibly more.

Their election supervisor results page
https://enr.electionsfl.org/SUM/Summary/2767/

https://www.sumterelections.org

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