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Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:49 PM

Interesting tidbit from Nate (possible good news)


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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:50 PM

1. This is so tenuous. He says...

...we missed the Latino/Cuban vote, but somehow this could mean something about the Midwestern suburbs?

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:51 PM

2. Biden has always been behind on Latino votes but made gains on suburban women.

That's known for weeks, we just didn't think it was that bad in FL.

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Response to Claustrum (Reply #2)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:52 PM

5. Florida

 

Bidenís deficit in FL is far greater than the Miami Dade Cuban shortfall.

Thereís a bigger polling miss going on somewhere.

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Response to PTWB (Reply #5)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:54 PM

6. Sorry. I guess I will stop talking about FL because I checked out of FL already. n/t

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Response to Claustrum (Reply #6)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:55 PM

8. Yah

 

Trump is up like 300,000 in FL. Way more than the Miami Dade shortfall. We are seeing a polling miss with the independent voters.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:51 PM

3. We are still in it if we can flip the suburbs and win MI, WI and PA.

 

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:52 PM

4. One state doesn't exactly translate to another.

 

What happens in Kansas might not effect a suburb in Michigan or Ohio or whomever....

Also Kansas has been subtle in trending blue, because of ages of horrible Rethug rule.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:54 PM

7. Ya right, like I'm going to believe whatever Nate EVER SAYS AGAIN

but so sorry, am I being a defeated Democrat again, ya know kinda like 20 gawd damn 16?? AND DAMN RIGHT IíM PISSED.

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #7)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 11:02 PM

9. If it turns out as we fear, the fault won't lie with Nate or any of the other correlating sites...

They deserve fault for 2016, because they took what was a close race with polling going in different directions, and put together the big picture wrong.

This time, the issue would be that the polls were quite clear-cut and virtually all in agreement, and all would have had to turned out to be drastically wrong.

If 45 wins again, the ones needing to take a long, hard look at themselves are the polling organizations, who seem to have all been off-base. If the raw data you're given is wrong, then it doesn't matter how you combine it.

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