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Dem2

(8,168 posts) Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:49 PM Nov 2020

Interesting tidbit from Nate (possible good news)

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Interesting tidbit from Nate (possible good news) (Original Post) Dem2 Nov 2020 OP

This is so tenuous. He says... joshcryer Nov 2020 #1

Biden has always been behind on Latino votes but made gains on suburban women. Claustrum Nov 2020 #2

Florida PTWB Nov 2020 #5

Sorry. I guess I will stop talking about FL because I checked out of FL already. n/t Claustrum Nov 2020 #6

Yah PTWB Nov 2020 #8

We are still in it if we can flip the suburbs and win MI, WI and PA. PTWB Nov 2020 #3

One state doesn't exactly translate to another. NorthOf270 Nov 2020 #4

Ya right, like I'm going to believe whatever Nate EVER SAYS AGAIN a kennedy Nov 2020 #7

If it turns out as we fear, the fault won't lie with Nate or any of the other correlating sites... regnaD kciN Nov 2020 #9

joshcryer

(62,269 posts)

1. This is so tenuous. He says...

Reply to Dem2 (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:50 PM

Nov 2020

...we missed the Latino/Cuban vote, but somehow this could mean something about the Midwestern suburbs?

Claustrum

(4,845 posts)

2. Biden has always been behind on Latino votes but made gains on suburban women.

Reply to joshcryer (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:51 PM

Nov 2020

That's known for weeks, we just didn't think it was that bad in FL.

PTWB

(4,131 posts)

5. Florida

Reply to Claustrum (Reply #2)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:52 PM

Nov 2020

Biden’s deficit in FL is far greater than the Miami Dade Cuban shortfall.

There’s a bigger polling miss going on somewhere.

Claustrum

(4,845 posts)

6. Sorry. I guess I will stop talking about FL because I checked out of FL already. n/t

Reply to PTWB (Reply #5)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:54 PM

Nov 2020

PTWB

(4,131 posts)

8. Yah

Reply to Claustrum (Reply #6)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:55 PM

Nov 2020

Trump is up like 300,000 in FL. Way more than the Miami Dade shortfall. We are seeing a polling miss with the independent voters.

PTWB

(4,131 posts)

3. We are still in it if we can flip the suburbs and win MI, WI and PA.

Reply to joshcryer (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:51 PM

Nov 2020

NorthOf270

(290 posts)

4. One state doesn't exactly translate to another.

Reply to Dem2 (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:52 PM

Nov 2020

What happens in Kansas might not effect a suburb in Michigan or Ohio or whomever....

Also Kansas has been subtle in trending blue, because of ages of horrible Rethug rule.

a kennedy

(29,642 posts)

7. Ya right, like I'm going to believe whatever Nate EVER SAYS AGAIN

Reply to Dem2 (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 10:54 PM

Nov 2020

but so sorry, am I being a defeated Democrat again, ya know kinda like 20 gawd damn 16?? AND DAMN RIGHT I’M PISSED.

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)

9. If it turns out as we fear, the fault won't lie with Nate or any of the other correlating sites...

Reply to a kennedy (Reply #7)

Tue Nov 3, 2020, 11:02 PM

Nov 2020

They deserve fault for 2016, because they took what was a close race with polling going in different directions, and put together the big picture wrong.

This time, the issue would be that the polls were quite clear-cut and virtually all in agreement, and all would have had to turned out to be drastically wrong.

If 45 wins again, the ones needing to take a long, hard look at themselves are the polling organizations, who seem to have all been off-base. If the raw data you're given is wrong, then it doesn't matter how you combine it.

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