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qdouble

(891 posts)
3. Time will tell
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:13 AM
Nov 2020

If you look at the uncounted votes county by county all signs point to Trump being out of gas. There is going to be a Biden wave and Trump knew this would happen that’s why he wanted to stop the counting.

qdouble

(891 posts)
5. People aren't looking at where the early votes came from
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:17 AM
Nov 2020

Biden appears to have been underperforming mostly because many states count early voting and mail in votes last. However, those votes are going to swing blue hard. We may not win PA, but the vote counts will look at lot better than it does now

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
8. I get the outstanding votes lean Blue, but they have to swing big time. trump is still up 590,000
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:21 AM
Nov 2020

votes. So the outstanding 1.4 M votes have to go over 70% for Biden. Maybe -- and hope -- so, but I wouldn't bet any money on it.

qdouble

(891 posts)
11. It's going to be close but...
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:28 AM
Nov 2020

There are 1.1 million votes to be counted in counties that Hillary won and those votes will go heavily towards Biden as his current numbers are below what would make sense. There is only like 400k votes left in Trump leaning counties.

Mike 03

(16,616 posts)
4. I still believe we might take PA. Too many people who analyze elections for a living
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:15 AM
Nov 2020

are saying we have a good shot.

Silent3

(15,148 posts)
7. I'm worried because PA had the narrowest lead in the polling of the "norther tier"
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:20 AM
Nov 2020

And all of that polling appears to have been skewed to make thngs look better for Biden than it has turned out. It's hard to see getting PA when we're at best going to squeak by in MI and WI.

Eid Ma Clack Shaw

(490 posts)
9. Or maybe it was just better polled given the incredible amount of focus on it
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:22 AM
Nov 2020

That’s not out of the question either.

FBaggins

(26,721 posts)
10. I do not like what they're saying about the House
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:26 AM
Nov 2020

There are multiple "safe Democrat" seats with current leads for republicans and a large proportion of the "vulnerable" seats on both sides appear to be red.

It won't happen (several of them are in areas with enough blue votes outstanding)... but if they won every seat currently colored a shade of red, they would retake the House.

I initially thought that we would pick up about a dozen seats... and that shifted to losing a handful when I finally went to bed. But now it looks like Pelosi's majority could be down to almost ten seats.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/house-2020/?itid=sn_election-2020

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