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Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:10 AM

Washington Post models project Biden will win WI and Pennsylvania




Be patient...the election is likely to end way better than it started

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Response to qdouble (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:11 AM

1. Might, not will.

"might keep that lead" and "will win" aren't the same thing.

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #1)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:13 AM

3. Time will tell

If you look at the uncounted votes county by county all signs point to Trump being out of gas. There is going to be a Biden wave and Trump knew this would happen thatís why he wanted to stop the counting.

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Response to qdouble (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:13 AM

2. I'm not convinced on PA, but still hoping.

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Response to Hoyt (Reply #2)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:17 AM

5. People aren't looking at where the early votes came from

Biden appears to have been underperforming mostly because many states count early voting and mail in votes last. However, those votes are going to swing blue hard. We may not win PA, but the vote counts will look at lot better than it does now

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Response to qdouble (Reply #5)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:21 AM

8. I get the outstanding votes lean Blue, but they have to swing big time. trump is still up 590,000

votes. So the outstanding 1.4 M votes have to go over 70% for Biden. Maybe -- and hope -- so, but I wouldn't bet any money on it.

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Response to Hoyt (Reply #8)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:28 AM

11. It's going to be close but...

There are 1.1 million votes to be counted in counties that Hillary won and those votes will go heavily towards Biden as his current numbers are below what would make sense. There is only like 400k votes left in Trump leaning counties.

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Response to qdouble (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:15 AM

4. I still believe we might take PA. Too many people who analyze elections for a living

are saying we have a good shot.

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Response to qdouble (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:19 AM

6. Just to drive us Crazy!

TY! Rt!

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Response to qdouble (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:20 AM

7. I'm worried because PA had the narrowest lead in the polling of the "norther tier"

And all of that polling appears to have been skewed to make thngs look better for Biden than it has turned out. It's hard to see getting PA when we're at best going to squeak by in MI and WI.

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Response to Silent3 (Reply #7)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:22 AM

9. Or maybe it was just better polled given the incredible amount of focus on it

Thatís not out of the question either.

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Response to qdouble (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:26 AM

10. I do not like what they're saying about the House

There are multiple "safe Democrat" seats with current leads for republicans and a large proportion of the "vulnerable" seats on both sides appear to be red.

It won't happen (several of them are in areas with enough blue votes outstanding)... but if they won every seat currently colored a shade of red, they would retake the House.

I initially thought that we would pick up about a dozen seats... and that shifted to losing a handful when I finally went to bed. But now it looks like Pelosi's majority could be down to almost ten seats.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/house-2020/?itid=sn_election-2020

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Response to qdouble (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:28 AM

12. AZ, NV, MI are all remaining vote from Dem strongholds.

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