Kornacki keeps talking about vote dumps from Maricopa County...

[brush]

without mentioning that vote dumps will come from Pima County too where Tucson is, the second largest population center in AZ. And Tucson has always been blue so votes from there will be mostly for Biden.

He doesn't know the state that well.

And Coconino County, north of Maricopa, where Flagstaff and Northern Arizona University are is also blue. There might also be dumps from there.

In other words, be patient, we got this.

[Delarage]

1. Thank you

I've been getting a little freaked out. I've been hurt before

[cleolew]

2. Concerned also

I lived in Arizona ages ago and still have a sister there. I am also a little worried after watching S. Kornacki. Had to turn him off.

[Hoyt]

3. The problem is that some of these "dumps" are coming from mail in ballots dropped

off the last few days. Those skew trump. The last batch of 75K ballots from Maricopa went 59% trump. If that keeps up, trump COULD take AZ.

CNN is saying same.

[uponit7771]

5. Were those ballots from Maricopa or other blue areas? tia

[Hoyt]

8. Pretty sure Maricopa. The theory is GOPers tended to drop off

off ballots late, that proved true in that 75 K dump earlier today. Not saying the other outstanding votes from Maricopa were from late or early voting (which was heavily Biden).

[radius777]

28. What's weird is that in 2018 the drop off ballots

that got counted last benefitted Dems, iirc, and helped Sinema overcome an early McSally lead.

The Biden camp said they think alll remaining ballots are on average 53% Trump, which won't be enough to overcome Biden's lead.

[Hoyt]

30. Hope so. But apparently Biden campaign is acknowledging the remaining ballots skew trump.

Believe me, I have no interest in trump wining. There is a reason no one has called the election, there is still a chance for trump, though small.

[radius777]

31. Agree, we just have to hope it holds

and if it doesn't then PA (which is looking very likely) comes through for us.

GA+NV would also do it.

[Hoyt]

32. As Axelrod said tonight, "Look, Biden has several paths to 270. For trump

EVERYTHING has to fall in place for him to win.”

[brush]

12. Why do you think mail-in ballots skew for trump? That's the...

exact opposite of every other state as Dems have been the ones mostly voting by mail. The pattern nation-wide has need Dems by mail and repubicans on election day.

[Hoyt]

18. Because that's what Kornacki and John King said on the last day drop offs.

They went 59% for trump in the 75K processed earlier this evening.

I didn’t make it up.

We don’t know what the next batch will represent, but if it too is 60% or so trump, he could take AZ.

[brush]

25. King and Kornacki seem to also have missed the nation-wide pattern.

Or they're just creating drama as it's been a pretty well established pattern that Democrats mostly have voted by mail or early to avoid covid and repubicans mostly voted yesterday on Nov. 3.

We've seen that all over the country.

[Hoyt]

27. 59% trump for the 75K dropped off last day in AZ is more specific than National pattern.

Neither I, nor Kornacki or King, said trend would continue. But it is a data point THAT IF IT DOES CONTINUE for last day drop offs — and last day drop offs are prevalent enough in the outstanding ballots— would be an issue for us.

[Hoyt]

33. See Chris Haye's show about 7 minutes in with Kornacki explaining the 59% trump.

[brush]

34. I'm actually watching the repeat of it now. He says trump has to...

get 59% of all the votes to come in to overtake Biden.

Not much chance of that. MSNBC and CNN need to call it for Biden just as AP, USA Today and even FOX have.

[Hoyt]

35. He said that the 75K skewed trump by 59%. If remaining votes are from same bucket

(ie, ballots that came in last few days and tending to skew trump around 59%), trump COULD take AZ.

[brush]

36. Not exactly. It was explained that many of those votes were...

from people who walked in their mail-in ballots recently because they've been informed not to mail-in their ballots because of the USPS slowdown. And as we know, most people using mail-in ballots are Democrats, maybe indies.

So there's that. Anyway, we're on the same side. And as they said, there's little change the dumps from all over the state are all going to come in at a 59% rate for trump so we've got this.

[elleng]

4. He's explained well,

from whence came/are coming the 'dumps.'

[brush]

10. He's only mentioned Pima County in passing.

Votes from there will likely favor Biden and cancel out some trump votes from Maricopa. And Maricopa has Phoenix and several suburbs populated by white women, many of whom trump has alienated.

Even if the dumps come in 59 to 41 for trump, and it's not certain they will favor trump at that high a rate, trump still has to overcome Biden's lead and the Pima dumps will partially offset the trump votes so Biden's tally should be able to hold the lead by the time it's over.

[Chili]

23. he probably didn't say it enough, but...

...he mentioned that one of the reasons why so many of them may be trump ballots is because many of them were dropped off at the ballot boxes Monday, or received via mail on Monday, where he thought the large majority of Biden ballots would've come much earlier. So he calls them "late early" with the premise that many are trump's at the last minute, similar to same day in-person.

[Warpy]

6. Tucson has always been an island of relative sanity there

which is why it was second on my list of possible places to live when I was planning to leave Boston.

NM won out because the altitude made the climate a little more congenial. Uh, usually.

[cleolew]

7. Still worried

I understand and I guess that's why I'm worried. Can't take another 4 years of Trump.

[kairos12]

9. He has no fucking understanding of Arizona. Complete moron. Vote dump. Jeeze.

[cleolew]

11. Still worried

Thanks.

[Sunsky]

17. You have stated this three times in this post

I think all readers will know that you are concerned/ worried.

[Rice4VP]

13. USA Today has a check mark next to Biden's name in AZ

Are MSNBC and CNN not in the know or just creating drama?


https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/race/2020-11-03-presidential-AZ-0/?itm_source=oembed&itm_medium=news&itm_campaign=electionresults

[Drunken Irishman]

14. They're using the AP's decision. The AP called it. So has FOX News.

But a lot of people are saying it was prematurely called.

[misanthrope]

15. Please hear and see everything from him through this filter

His job is to ratchet tension. That's it.

When he comes on, I turn the sound down.

[brush]

16. You're absolutely right. He does do that. I just want him to...

report the whole story.

[misanthrope]

26. The fact he has a costume for his role --

-- light-colored dress shirt with sleeves rolled up, tie, brown pants -- tells you what you need to know. It's as much a play as it is news.

On nights when Kornacki filled in for hosts like Brian Williams, he steps from behind the desk, removes his jacket and dons his costume to launch into his "numbers nerd" shtick when it comes time to discuss polling/returns/numbers/stats. He gets into character.

[brush]

29. Yes. Good observations.

[herding cats]

19. He's running on Diet Coke and zero sleep.

He's not made for a marathon style reporting. He's been getting addled in his hype more and more.

[Tribetime]

20. Horse race. Don't even mention PA will likely go blue

[BainsBane]

22. CNN is better

They are less interested in manufacturing drama.

[Sunsky]

24. I agree

I love watching the ladies on MSNBC but I had to switch the CNN earlier.

[BainsBane]

21. Biden will hold on in Az

and he may eek in out in PA.