Arizona Number Crunch: Looks Good

[Fahrenthold451]

The last dump was 67,000 votes and Trump picked up 7000. This is Maricopa County. Trump is netting 9.5% of the outstanding vote. Meaning for every hundred votes counted, Trump reduces Biden's lead by 9.5 votes.

There are 126,000 regular ballots remaining. Of the remaining 92,000 are Maricopa.

47,000 provisional ballots remain. These ballots tend to skew D and/or many of these won't count. Further, these won't be counted until next week.

So by tomorrow, all the regular ballots will be counted and assuming the same trend, 126k X .095

=11970

Biden's current lead is 29861
Minus 11970

17891 Biden wins

Let's assume that all the provisional ballots follow the same trend.

Bidens lead 29861 - 16435

13426 Biden wins.

[SheltieLover]

1. TYVM!

[relayerbob]

2. Do you have the actual numbers of this last dump?

Trump needed >59% of remaining vote in each dump to catch up, and has missed that several times. Curious what the percentage is this time

[griffi94]

8. Per MSNBC

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/2020-11-06-trump-biden-election-results-n1246707/ncrd1246883#liveBlogHeader

[relayerbob]

9. Thanks but that's just a dump of news stories

Thanks anyway

[griffi94]

10. The Arizona clip is the second one I think

[griffi94]

11. When I clicked the link it took me straight there

[relayerbob]

12. Must be in your cache

I'm not seeing it at all.

Oh well, no big. Thanks

[griffi94]

14. It's up at the MSNBC site.

It says Trump missed his target on the last dump,
making it more difficult to hit the remaining targets
and he's running out of votes.

[relayerbob]

15. Oh, a video

Sorry, I was just looking for numbers or a chart. Figured you had them, since you had so many already. It was about 55%, below the 59% needed earlier

[blitzen]

3. I think you've nailed it. n/t

[sinkingfeeling]

4. Didn't you forget to add Biden's share of the 126,000 to his current lead?

[gristy]

5. Well, no.

Meaning for every hundred votes counted, Biden's lead increases by 100-9.5=90.5 votes.

[Renew Deal]

6. Wouldn't Biden only win by 1,456 if the trend applied to all remaining ballots?

29861
-11970 regular ballots
-16435 provisionals
= 1,456

[Roland99]

7. but 180,000 ballots overall remaining, estimated

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

[Fahrenthold451]

13. Many provisionals in that count