Provisional Ballots in PA may be skewed Democratic based upon unreturned mail-in ballot stats

[PA Democrat]

Many are speculating that large number of provisional ballots are due to people who requested mail in ballots opting to vote in person. The reason could be they never received their ballot or just decided to vote in person.

SOOOO...


Here are the stats

DEMOCRATS

1,945,499 ballots requested
1,694,719 ballots returned

250,780 ballots NOT returned


REPUBLICANS

787,752 ballots requested
620,282 ballots returned

167,470 ballots NOT returned


So theoretically if the reason there are so many provisional ballots is partly due to people who requested mail in ballots but voting in person instead, the pool of voters by party affiliation is more than 80,000 greater for DEMOCRATS.

Source for stats:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

Of course, there are other reasons for people voting provisionally, but there was a lot of fear of ballots being delayed by the post office.

[fearnobush]

1. I work in Philly I know for fact this is true

I have a co-worker who never received their ballot and had to vote provisionally on Tuesday.
An other coworkers wife had to vote provisionally because she was a first time voter - both for Biden of course.

[PA Democrat]

4. My neighbor had the same problem.

She requested her mail in ballot the beginning of October and hadn't received it by election day.

[AlexSFCA]

2. don't tell that to trump, keep him thinking those are heavily gop

[PA Democrat]

3. More clarification.

If you requested a mail in ballot but voted in person instead, you had to surrender your mail in ballot at the polls or you would have had to cast a provisional ballot.

[yellowcanine]

6. Yes and many did not get their ballot and so had none to surrender thanks to DeJoy's shenanigans

which had a greater impact in urban areas because the mail was slower there than in rural counties.

[Tommymac]

7. Thanks. Good Point.

I forgot that rule since we mailed ours in as soon as we got them in mid October.

3 Dems in Allegheny County PA.

Wonder if Karnacki has seen that....

[Drahthaardogs]

5. Your numbers are off

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

1.9 million requests by Dems and 1.6 returned

[PA Democrat]

9. Thanks for those stats. I couldn't find anything more current.

I will update my OP.

[frazzled]

8. Proviso on provisional ballots in PA

As in my state (IL), and unlike the rules in some other states ... if you requested a mail ballot but changed your mind and decided to vote in person, you needed to take your mail ballot to the polling place and surrender it to an election official, who would spoil it and allow you to make an in-person vote. If for any reason you don’t bring the ballot (didn’t receive it, didn’t know you had to bring it, dog ate it, etc.) you would have to vote provisionally.

If there are at most only 100,000 such provisional ballots remaining — and not the entire 400,000+ ballots that were not returned—one can assume that most people had their mail ballots spoiled to vote in person, or just didn’t vote. Since nearly twice as many would presumably be Democratic ballots ... ergo, possum.