It seems like GA, NC, TX, AZ are trending blue but OH and rustbelt possibly stagnant or moving red?

[Quixote1818]

Were the rustbelt states trending more red only because Trump tapped into a certain segment of the population that doesn't usually vote? I guess those have been swing states for a long time now though. Seems like more key states are trending blue than red.

Thoughts?

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. NYT times has a map view option to see the shifts

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Click the fourth box under the map

Some areas of the states you mention are trending one way, other areas the other way - in NC, western areas going bluer, eastern areas redder, for example

[TDale313]

2. Which states are you counting as Rustbelt?

Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin went blue. Ohio went Red, but has been trending that way for a while.

[luvs2sing]

3. Ohio is so gerrymandered that we have no choice.

That is supposed to change in the next year or so. We will see if we’re really as red as we seem.

[moose65]

6. But...

Gerrymandering doesn’t affect the Presidential election or the Senate elections.

[DBoon]

4. states that are trending blue have an influx of new residents

immigrants and people from blue states.

They have newer technology based businesses with a more cosmopolitan outlook than agriculture, resource extraction, and old-line manufacturing that formerly made up their base.

Maybe Ohio has fewer of these than TX, NC, etc.

[Wellstone ruled]

5. Ohio seems to have had or is still

suffering from Population displacement. So many of their Rural Towns are just Farm Supply Centers and their Young folks have since moved on to the big Cities.

Have Cousins in the Auction Business in Cleveland area. As the Heavy Industry went off shore,the Educated Brain Trusts moved away finding employment that fit their skill sets. And as the Cousins tell it,the displacement is still in full swing leaving many towns just Retirement centers . When you lose your Youth,you lose your future. Plus Ohio has been on a massive Austerity Program for more than two decades.

And as the Cousins mentioned,they are booked with Auctions thru 2021,not good.

[doc03]

8. The young people with any ambition are moving away from the rural areas some to the Columbus area

and many to SC, NC and GA. That leaves the rural areas with older less educated white people. All my friend's
children and grandchildren are in Columbus or in those other states.

[arlyellowdog]

7. Young voters

I was talking to some Pennsylvania people about the influx of young people into the old dying industrial “rust belt” towns. These young are redeveloping the towns. These are the young voters who swayed the election. That’s why my daughter said the news people were so wrong that Biden’s comment about pivoting from fossil fuels would lose PA. Our party needs to look at the crowds who are dancing in the streets and not lose them. Stop thinking about PA as the “rust belt” and see through the eyes of the young generation who, along with African Americans, just saved is.

[Loki Liesmith]

10. That may be the future but it is not the near future

[arlyellowdog]

11. That is what the PA people were saying

They are the near future, actually the present. The overlooked vote that turned PA. Young, “artsy” who are gentrifying PA and other parts of the rust belt.

[GulfCoast66]

9. White people. The Midwest is not as diverse as the other states you mentioned.

Sure, the cities are. But outside that it is lily white.

The wife is from rural Indiana. All white. And old and religious. The trifecta for voting Republican.

The educated young folks GTF out if they can. Like my wife did 40 years ago.