a couple caveats on the promising pzifer vaccine:

[unblock]

above all, it's clearly very encouraging news, even if the testing isn't complete. better efficacy than we would have happily settled for in such a short time frame (even though it feels like it's dragging on forever, this is lightning speed for vaccine development).

first, it requires two doses, three weeks apart. so, not an instant fix.

second, it needs to be kept cold constantly from manufacturing until injection. manageable for developed countries like america, but not so good for many countries across the world, which in turn means the virus will be around for a while even if once it's under control here at home.

third, it will take months to complete the testing and ramp up manufacturing and distribution, and get people to take the doses, and then for the actual number of active cases to drop to safer levels. part of the protection of a vaccine is that the person who gets it is protected (but only 90% in this case) and part of the protection is lower exposure risk because other people are less likely to have it as they get the vaccine as well (herd immunity). it will take more time even after you get your shots for the herd immunity part to kick in.

[grantcart]

1. Good points

Isn't 90% efficacy quite high,especially for a neww vaccine?

[LisaL]

4. Very high for vaccine against a respiratory virus. (if holds upon more data).

NT

[unblock]

6. it's fantastic, but the final number might be lower.

that said, the final number is very likely to still be at least 80-85%, and even that is great at this stage.

[soothsayer]

2. Expectantly waiting for scientific peer review

[Klaralven]

10. In this case there is an independent trial review board

This is closer scrutiny than peers give scientific journal papers.

[soothsayer]

11. Neat

[Steelrolled]

16. This trial is not typical research

The FDA has been involved every step of the way.

[LisaL]

3. Ultra cold temperatures not going to be easy to manage even in America.

It's needs to be kept in a special ultra low freezer. Doctor's offices and pharmacies don't have those.

[unblock]

8. yes. manageable, but not ideal. we can figure this out; many countries will not be able to.

but you're right, there will also be many delays and spoiled vaccines along the way....

[Sgent]

20. Not that bad

-80C for long term storage
2-8C for up to 4 weeks
room temp for 24 hours

They could run some tests at -5 and I imagine they would get months. In the US at least we can ship down to -20 easily (UPS, Fedex).

[Steelrolled]

23. Dry ice is our friend, and is plentiful.

I don't think short-term storage during the initial rollout of the vaccine will be a problem. Medical facilities will be using up the vaccine as fast as it is received.

[hlthe2b]

5. Actually that level of cold-chain will be difficult without major modifications for small clinics,

pharmacies, and doctor's offices. That was an original concern for the varicella vaccine, which fortunately turned out to be more in line with storage issues for other routine vaccines. But, the mRNA vaccines are going to be extremely termperature sensitive.


Not to mention we know way too little about longevity of protective antibody. So, yes, it is a positive report, but PH officials are correct in saying a mask with distancing still remains one's best protection and will for a long time to come.

[unblock]

12. republicans might even agree to fund cold storage for pharmacies and doctors offices.

never know with them, especially when a democrat is in the white house, but once the vaccine is proven and available, *everyone* will be clamoring for it and will want congress to make it happen asap.

[Steelrolled]

32. Dry ice shipping boxes.

Regarding our best protection for now, I would say it the other way around: Social distancing, with masks. An unfortunate effect of the big push for mask usage is that people get the impression is that is all it takes. Masks help, but social distancing is the key.

[hlthe2b]

35. Few clinics/doctor's offices receive shipments on dry ice. Yes, of course they can, but dry ice

is a modification. Especially if they intend to store for several days in a confined area with nothing more than a cooler that off-gasses.

And for the nitpicking, I said a MASK WITH DISTANCING>

[Klaralven]

7. All true, but now the Biden administration can implement a very clear strategy for 3Q21 success

We have to get through the winter and spring of '21 by continuing social distancing and public hygiene measures.

We also have to pass economic support measures for the unemployed and to continue keeping businesses out of bankruptcy. But we now have a good handle on how large those have to be and how long they must continue.

We also need to think about what the "new normal" economy looks like once Covid is suppressed. It won't be like the economy of 2019, since many changes are irreversible.

[soothsayer]

9. False Claims Act Fines: $1,161,001,892 Offences 23 Drug or Safety Violations Fines: $103,840,000 Off

Link to tweet

?s=21


Bilderberg - Deep State #KBF #OurMovement 🐑😷💉⚰
@5Agenda21
Pfizer - UK contract for Vaccines

False Claims Act
Fines: $1,161,001,892 Offences 23
Drug or Safety Violations
Fines: $103,840,000 Offences 5
Foreign Corrupt Practices
Fines: $60,216,568 Offences 3
Kickbacks and Bribery
Fines: $34,700,000Offences 3

https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=pfizer

[unblock]

14. killjoy.

lol.

you're right, there are quite a number of ways in which this could turn out to be a dud, including side effects that develop later.

but for now, it's good news, i'll take it.

[Hugin]

18. soothsayer, you are a saint.

Okay, I'm glad you're on watch.

[demmiblue]

36. That Twitter account... ugh.

Here is the pinned tweet:

Link to tweet

And then there's this:

Link to tweet

[Hugin]

41. Ouch... But, clock, once a day.

Fortunately, the information in the tweet posted by soothsayer is easily enough verified by credible sources.

[demmiblue]

43. One can cite the credible sources without amplifying the nutters.

I mean, the name itself gives the account away (including the sheep, mask and injection).

[Hugin]

46. Point taken, demmiblue.

[Ferrets are Cool]

13. Bottom line, masks will be in fashion for at least a year to come.

At least for those of us who have brains.

[Hugin]

15. I'm confused about a couple of things...

First off, how do they know it's 90% effective?

[LisaL]

17. Clinical trial.

NT

[Hugin]

31. ...

Yeppers.

[unblock]

22. not entirely sure, but my guess is

they looked at
a) the total number of cases among the people who got the vaccine and compared it to
b) the total number of cases among the people who got the saline injection (placebo).

and i'm guessing a) was 90% less than b)


no idea if it's more sophisticated than that, e.g., do they try to control for level of interaction with strangers, hours outside the house, hours in enclosed areas with strangers, whether they wear a mask appropriately, etc.

[Hugin]

28. Thanks, ub.

I have a commitment to caution wrt COVID and a transparent process of developing mitigation strategies.

Asking questions and review is part of the process.

[Hugin]

37. They would almost have to continue the protocols.

In which case how does one separate the factors when masks have already been shown to be very effective.

Distancing and isolation, too.

Good point.

[unblock]

39. well for whatever reasons, a lot fewer people who got the vaccine got covid

there's always some uncertainty in these tests as you never know exactly how the individual subjects behaved "in the wild".
you have to hope that such things average out across the two groups.

[Hugin]

44. True. So, very true.

There's some confounding factors here. Such as, the group chosen as subjects from the pool of applicants as a whole were all probably already extremely COVID proactive and therefore more likely to follow the existing protocols 'in-the-wild'.

I'm sure the disclaimer to continue the existing protocols will be added in the fine print, if and when, this vaccine is finally distributed. Oh, well... At least half of the population will potentially be better off, excluding the Trumpanzees and Loser45 himself. A bright spot!

[Sgent]

25. They gave

the vaccine or saline randomly to 40,000 people (neither the people injecting or receiving the shot knew which). They then tracked the people, in this case ~90 in the saline group got sick and 8 in the vaccine group.

[Hugin]

30. There's some numbers to think about.

Very good Sgent. Thanks.

A relatively large trial for a vaccine.

[Doodley]

19. However, vaccinations mean less people wearing masks, including those who aren't vaccinated, and

there's no way by just looking to tell if somebody has been vaccinated. Less mask-wearing means more risk of getting the virus for the non-vaccinated.

[unblock]

33. exactly, that's one of the reasons the real victory doesn't happen until active cases drop

and masks are reportedly about 75% effective. so if people get an 80-90% effective vaccine but then stop using the 75% effective mask, the improvement isn't nearly as much as it would be if people continued (or started ffs) wearing masks until the number of active cases dropped to very low levels.

[Ms. Toad]

21. One minor addition -

The goal of operation "Warp Speed" did was to cut out the ramp up for manufacturing.

That process is going on simultaneously with testing, so that distribution can begin almost immediately upon approval.

[unblock]

26. that's also encouraging. once they have the vaccine, how easily is it mass-produced?

is this the sort of thing one has to just put in petri dishes and wait for things to cultivate, then repeat the process for the next batch?

or can it be scaled up faster?

[DrToast]

27. This vaccine was not part of Warp Speed

[Ms. Toad]

29. So it hadn't made it into the list of the most promising?

My understanding is that designation of which vaccines would be produced ahead of time was based on which were most promising.

[DrToast]

34. They chose not to be part of it

The drug companies still had the final say on whether or not to accept funding.

It is believed Pfizer chose not to because they didn't want Trump to politicize it.

[Ms. Toad]

42. That's probably good news -

even if it means a delay.

[Steelrolled]

38. Pfizer "warp speed" agreement with US gov occurred on July 22.

NEW YORK & MAINZ, Germany--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (Nasdaq: BNTX) today announced the execution of an agreement with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the Department of Defense to meet the U.S. government’s Operation Warp Speed program goal to begin delivering 300 million doses of a vaccine for COVID-19 in 2021. Under the agreement, the U.S. government will receive 100 million doses of BNT162, the COVID-19 vaccine candidate jointly developed by Pfizer and BioNTech, after Pfizer successfully manufactures and obtains approval or emergency use authorization from U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200722005438/en/

The U.S. government will pay the companies $1.95 billion upon the receipt of the first 100 million doses, following FDA authorization or approval. The U.S. government also can acquire up to an additional 500 million doses.

Americans will receive the vaccine for free consistent with U.S. government’s commitment for free access for COVID-19 vaccines.

[DrToast]

40. Not sure if that actually happened

Pfizer is saying they never took any money.

Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine Was 'Never Part' of Trump's Operation Warp Speed, Says Research Head

https://www.newsweek.com/pfizer-covid-vaccine-operation-warp-speed-trump-pence-1546024

[Steelrolled]

45. It is not clear to me either

At the time of the agreement, Pfizer and BioNTech were gung-ho.

We are pleased to have signed this important agreement with the U.S. government to supply the initial 100 million doses upon approval as part of our commitment to address the global health threat. This agreement is one of many steps towards providing global access to a safe and efficacious vaccines for COVID-19. We are also in advanced discussions with multiple other government bodies and we hope to announce additional supply agreements soon. Our goal remains to bring a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine to many people around the world, as quickly as we can,” said Ugur Sahin, M.D., CEO and Co-founder of BioNTech.

I expect that Pfizer would not lock themselves into such an agreement, and at some point, might have determined they would be better off by selling on the free market.

Pfizer would do themselves no favors by discrediting the US governments efforts to accelerate vaccine development. I expect we will hear more about this.

EDIT TO ADD: Looking at the words of the announcement, this might be a key phrase:

The U.S. government will pay the companies $1.95 billion upon the receipt of the first 100 million doses, following FDA authorization or approval. The U.S. government also can acquire up to an additional 500 million doses.

So the agreement might be a guaranteed purchases at some agreed-upon price. This would help Pfizer in financing for the manufacturing ramp-up, but technically they would have received no money. I certainly hope Pfizer would not make this claim.

[malaise]

24. The most important point of caution about this is that Pzifer alone is confirming this

Additionally Pzifer had nothing to do with Operation Warp Speed.
That said this is hopeful news.