General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrump won the last dump from Maricopa by 55% margin.
Now needs over 76% of remaining votes.
VMA131Marine
(4,138 posts)He actually has to do better than that because over half of what are left are provisional ballots and they wont all count.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)Assuming board of elections reporting it's accurately, there is only ~25000 ballots remaining.
https://www.arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html
VMA131Marine
(4,138 posts)Trumps toast: he needs about 77% of whats left.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)NT
triron
(21,999 posts)It's over and it's Biden's. eos
NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)How many was it?
What's the vote margin now?
NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)Maricopa county has posted 13,143 ballots.
Breakdown:
Biden: 5,826 (44.3%)
Trump: 7,019 (53.4%)
Biden leads Trump in Arizona by 11,635 votes.
mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)and traditionally provisionals favor Democrats. Maybe not this time but it's VERY unlikely he makes up the difference with them.
mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)If that was big enough, it's absolutely over.
LeftInTX
(25,278 posts)Biden's lead is 11,635
Link to tweet
/photo/1
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#
brush
(53,771 posts)mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)Wish I knew at what rate they've been getting tossed thus far.
Anyways he looks toast even w/o those 10K.
brush
(53,771 posts)mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)Democrats should be knocking on doors urging their voters to get down and provide the needed verification.
It's not really right to say 'most' are from Pima, never know how many provisionals will 'count', but ... still looks very promising.
brush
(53,771 posts)a percentage in any previous ballot dumps I've seen.
It's over.
mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)The fewer votes that count, the more share he needs of the others, and it's not like he's taking down the Maricopa ballots in the 80%s. Throw out the Pima provisionals, and he'd have to take literally every other vote in the state.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)NT
triron
(21,999 posts)Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)team asked to be removed from the Arizona lawsuit.
Vivienne235729
(3,384 posts)KentuckyWoman
(6,679 posts)We knew he'd pull this but .. sheesh.
greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)Seems like its 15,000 in Maricopa; 6,000 untabulated provisionals in Pima, maybe 3500 in each of Yuma and Cochise, and a few stragglers elsewhere. 28,000 left?
Also, break even on 40,000 would require 63%.
Alhena
(3,030 posts)LisaL
(44,973 posts)NT
greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)I think leaves Biden with between 8,000-9,800.
I'd guess Trump takes what's left by 1800 if all the provisionals come in, maybe a bit more if the Pima County provisionals are counted at a lower rate. I don't see any way clear for him to take the 17000-18000 of what's left that he would need.